Bitcoin Finds Its Floor: Liquidity, Not Halving, Now Rules the Market

Bitcoin’s rebound is proving tentative after a chaotic start to the week. The flagship cryptocurrency has steadied above $103,000 following Tuesday’s break below $100,000, but volume remains heavy and conviction light.

Traders describe it as “a relief bounce without belief.” The total crypto market cap recovered to roughly $3.5 trillion, up 3% in 24 hours, yet the tone is defensive: leverage reset, ETF inflows flat, and capital rotation favoring safety.

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After touching $99,954, the first sub-six-figure print since May, Bitcoin’s technical structure is frayed. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains down more than 20% from its October peak, officially meeting the definition of a bear phase.

On-chain and futures data suggest short-term oversold conditions, but not yet capitulation. Analysts point to $105,000 as the level to reclaim before sentiment stabilizes. Ethereum has followed with sharper volatility, down over 30% from its highs, while Solana’s ETF has shed 41%, underscoring the hierarchy of risk: Bitcoin leads down, but Solana feels it hardest.

Liquidity pressure continues to frame the cycle. The U.S. government shutdown has drained nearly $700 billion from the system as the Treasury General Account swells to record levels.

Repo demand remains elevated, and real yields are anchored near 4%, tightening global liquidity. In this environment, ETF creations have slowed to a trickle. The market has lost its reflexive bid and is learning to trade without it.

For years, Bitcoin’s halving cycle was its metronome, scarcity produced speculation, speculation produced highs. That rhythm is now obsolete. Market makers like Wintermute and analytics firms like Kaiko argue that ETF flows and stablecoin issuance now dominate price discovery.

The October rally that took Bitcoin to $126,000 coincided with record ETF inflows; its fall below $100,000 mirrored the reversal. Miner issuance, roughly $45 million in new Bitcoin a day, is trivial next to institutional flows that can inject or remove billions in a single week.

Stablecoins function as the new base money. With $300 billion circulating across dollar-pegged tokens, crypto’s liquidity now expands and contracts like a shadow banking system. When that supply grows, prices follow. When redemptions mount, risk compresses. The halving clock still ticks, but the real timekeeper is liquidity.

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Technically, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index sits near 38, oversold but not washed out. The 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day, maintaining a tenuous “golden cross,” though current price action sits below both averages.

Analysts view this as panic rather than full reversal, but warn that failure to hold above $102,000 risks retesting the $100,000 psychological line. ETF redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC remain the swing factors.

Sustained creations above $300 million daily are required to rebuild bullish structure.

Ethereum’s Grayscale Trust (ETHE) tested its 200-day average but held, suggesting relative strength. Solana’s ETF (SOLZ), however, has lost its $19 neckline, targeting $12 if momentum fails. The decoupling across majors is rare and speaks to differentiated ownership bases: institutional capital in Bitcoin, speculative capital in Solana, and rotational capital in Ethereum.

Amid the volatility, Ripple delivered a strategic headline. In partnership with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini, Ripple will pilot on-chain settlement for fiat credit card transactions using its RLUSD stablecoin.

The XRPL will process settlements between Mastercard and WebBank, marking the first collaboration between a regulated U.S. bank and a public blockchain settlement layer.

XRP recovered to $2.31 on the announcement. Mastercard framed it as an early step toward “bringing regulated stablecoin payments into the financial mainstream.”

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The last 72 hours have compressed the crypto narrative from exuberance to introspection. Bitcoin’s weakness doesn’t reflect fading adoption, it reflects the end of autopilot liquidity. The halving era rewarded patience; the liquidity era demands vigilance.

Every ETF print, stablecoin mint, and Treasury shift now moves the market faster than any block reward ever could.

Solana’s buybacks and Ripple’s settlement experiments hint at the next stage: digital assets integrating with traditional finance rather than trading against it.

The bull run’s survival depends less on halvings and more on how much capital is willing to stay in motion. In this new regime, liquidity is not the backdrop, it is the clock.