Markets Crack as ETFs Bleed, CPI Vanishes, and Rumors Whipsaw Bitcoin Holders

Bitcoin entered Friday pinned under 100,000 after another wave of ETF redemptions and more than 1.1 billion in liquidations. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw 869 million in net outflows on Thursday, the second largest single day exit on record. The Grayscale vehicle led with 318 million in redemptions, followed by BlackRock and Fidelity funds.

The retreat was concentrated during US trading hours again. Macro traders leaned defensive as expectations for a December rate cut faded and equity indices slid between 1 and 2 percent. The government shutdown continues to distort liquidity conditions. Several desks noted that fiscal flows effectively dried up through late September and October, creating some of the weakest background liquidity of the year.

The more immediate shock came from a missing inflation print. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the October CPI survey was never collected during the shutdown and may not be reconstructed. Rates desks had positioned for a volatility event that never arrived. Crypto responded with a sharp drawdown as traders were forced to navigate a macro void without a benchmark inflation signal.

BTC traded between 95000 and 99000 early Friday, with most desks eyeing 92000 to 95000 as the next zone of support. Wintermute reported steady demand for long dated volatility but little appetite to press downside.

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Three weeks of outflows now total 2.64 billion across spot bitcoin ETFs. Thursday’s 869 million made it clear that allocators are waiting for clarity on inflation, bond supply, and Fed expectations before rebuilding risk.

The mechanics matter. As ETF creations slow, bitcoin trades with less cushion. Liquidity thins. Selloffs feel heavier and bounces take more effort. That dynamic was on full display as BTC slipped below 100000 several times this week.

Yet inflows into stablecoins continue to rise quietly. This has historically preceded re risk phases once macro uncertainty clears.

Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF debuted on Nasdaq under ticker XRPC. The product was certified during the shutdown through the SEC’s generic listing framework and began trading with heavier than expected volume. Bitwise, WisdomTree, and 21Shares have similar products queued behind it. Dogecoin ETFs could go effective as early as November 23.

The debut came against a backdrop of market stress but still represents another step in the migration of large cap crypto assets into regulated exchange traded wrappers.

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Polymarket has reactivated its US platform in beta after acquiring the licensed QCX exchange. Select users can now place regulated domestic trades. New partnerships with UFC, Zuffa Boxing, Google, Yahoo Finance, DraftKings, PrizePicks, and the NHL position Polymarket to bring prediction markets directly into major broadcasts.

The relaunch arrived at the perfect moment. Traders on Thursday earned as much as 10x betting on a false rumor that Strategy sold bitcoin. The event highlighted how fast retail hedging now moves through on chain prediction rails.

Rumors spread overnight that Strategy unloaded 47000 BTC. The claim came from misread Arkham Intelligence screenshots showing wallet transfers in red text. Saylor responded immediately. We are buying. We will disclose on Monday. There is no truth to this rumor.

Strategy added 487 BTC last week and continues to hold more than 640000 BTC.

Its stock still fell below 200 on Friday morning and is down almost 35 percent year to date as crypto treasury firms face pressure from falling collateral values and rising credit stress.

For the first time in decades, the US delivered no CPI reading. The shutdown halted all data collection for October. The BLS has indicated the number may never be reconstructed. This leaves a blank line in the macro calendar and pushes the next possible reading to December 10.

Without CPI, traders leaned on ETF flows, options positioning, and liquidity proxies. Funding rates compressed. Open interest on CME sagged. Bitcoin traded as a stress asset rather than an inflation hedge.

The October vacuum creates three paths for December. A reconstructed but lower quality CPI could land softly and stabilize markets. A sticky 0.3 to 0.4 percent monthly print would keep yields range bound. A hot number above 0.5 percent would tighten financial conditions and pressure risk.

If October never appears, macro desks will lean harder on breakeven markets and inflation swaps. Crypto would move more slowly and more mechanically with ETF flows and long only demand dominating short term signals.

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Despite a fading dollar index, gold is up 4 percent this month and silver 9 percent. Investors have turned to precious metals as sovereign debt levels climb and long term fiscal credibility weakens across major economies.

Bitcoin has slid more than 9 percent over the same period. Magadini at Amberdata attributed the softness to flushes in positioning and growing credit stress among digital asset treasuries, many of which rely heavily on convertible debt. If credit tightens further, forced selling becomes a risk.

Volmex’s 30 day bitcoin implied volatility index has formed a pennant pattern after a bullish breakout. Pennants tend to resolve higher. This points toward rising volatility expectations into next week.

The next macro checkpoint is December 10, though the value field for October remains blank. UK and Eurozone CPI arrive Wednesday, with FOMC minutes the same day. Christine Lagarde speaks Friday.

For crypto traders, ETF flows remain the fastest proxy for institutional risk appetite. Watch for three consecutive green sessions above 200 million to confirm risk returning. Until then, liquidity stays fragile.

Crypto is in a macro vacuum. The October CPI gap removed the anchor the entire market had been waiting for. ETFs drained another 869 million. Liquidations crossed a billion. Volatility is climbing again. Yet under the surface, stablecoin inflows are steady and institutions are not pressing shorts.

This week’s tone is not capitulation. It is absence. Bitcoin is trading inside a void that will not resolve until the next reliable inflation signal appears.

The longer that void persists, the more crypto trades as a liquidity asset. ETF flows, long only demand, treasury accumulation, and credit conditions will dictate direction. Bitcoin could still be forming a longer term base near the mid 90000s.

Until data returns, the market trades the emptiness itself.