The Fed. The Earnings. The Blockade. All Today.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% after the index fell more than 1% on OpenAI growth concerns. S&P 500 futures are flat. Dow futures are unchanged. Buyers are stepping in ahead of the largest earnings session of the year.

Four companies report after the close.

Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) together represent more than 18% of the S&P 500. Options imply moves between 4.9% and 6.5% for each.

Brent pushed above $107. June contracts touched $114. The move followed signals that the Iran blockade will not end soon. Kpler estimates Brent could reach $125 if disruption continues.

There are offsets.

Seagate Technology (STX) surged 18% premarket on AI storage demand. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) rose 16%. The chip trade is holding even as parts of the AI ecosystem weaken.

The Signal

Tuesday tested sentiment. Today tests structure. The Fed, the Warsh vote, and four mega-cap earnings arrive in one session.

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Trump told aides to prepare for an extended Iran blockade. That removes the idea of a near-term resolution. The system is shifting from event risk to ongoing constraint.

Iran’s proposal failed.

It offered to reopen the Strait while delaying nuclear talks. The U.S. rejected it. Nuclear terms must come first. That gap remains.

Supply is tightening.

Brent is above $107. Forecasts are rising. Goldman Sachs sees $90 for Q4. Citigroup sees $110 for Q2 with a $130 scenario if disruption continues. Morgan Stanley expects $110 this quarter.

Structure is changing.

The United Arab Emirates left OPEC. That removes coordinated supply control at a time when the market needs it most.

The split is clear.

The U.S. has excess energy. Permian gas prices are negative. The rest of the world faces shortage and rising cost.

Energy Signal

The blockade is not temporary. It is the baseline. Energy markets are fragmenting into surplus and shortage.

Rates will hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. Markets are pricing certainty. That is not the focus.

A nine-word phrase in the Fed statement suggests the next move is more likely a cut than a hike. Some officials want it removed. That choice defines how markets read the transition to Kevin Warsh.

Warsh is expected to be confirmed today. He inherits a system with inflation near 3%, oil above $107, and limited policy tools for energy shocks.

Bond markets are watching.

The 10-year yield is near 4.37%. Breakeven inflation is approaching 2.5%. Pressure is building beneath the surface.

The risk is not immediate.

It is cumulative.

Macro Signal

Rates will not move today. Expectations might. Powell’s language sets the tone for the Warsh era.

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Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) report today. The question is simple.

Is revenue keeping up with spending?

Two new constraints appeared this week.

First, regulation.

The U.S. restricted chip equipment exports to China. Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA (KLAC) are affected. This tightens supply in an already constrained system.

Second, competition.

China is building its own AI stack. DeepSeek’s model is optimized for Huawei chips. Domestic demand is rising while U.S. supply is restricted.

The gap is widening.

Spending remains massive.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the focus. The stock is down 12% this year. Only a small portion of enterprise users pay for Copilot. Azure growth expectations are near 40%.

The model must prove itself now.

Capital Signal

AI demand is global. Supply is restricted. Revenue must catch up to spending starting today.

That stillness matters.

Altcoins are weaker. Ether is down. XRP and Solana are also lower. Capital is concentrating in bitcoin.

Sellers have exited. Supply pressure has dropped. The floor is near $75,000. Resistance remains near $80,000.

Paul Tudor Jones called bitcoin the best inflation hedge, citing fixed supply. That positions it against rising energy-driven inflation.

Adoption is expanding.

Central banks are starting to explore bitcoin reserves. The Czech National Bank showed that a small allocation improves returns without increasing risk.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reported crypto revenue down to $134 million. Trading activity is falling. The shift is toward prediction markets and structured products.

Regulation is rising.

The CFTC is suing multiple states over prediction market rules. This will define whether the space scales or fragments.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is stable. Institutional demand is building. Retail activity is cooling. Macro decides the next move.

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Three systems are moving at once.

Energy is tightening. The extended blockade confirms the war is now a condition, not an event. Oil above $107 reflects real constraint, not sentiment.

Policy is shifting. The Fed will hold rates, but Powell’s language and Warsh’s arrival redefine how markets read inflation and risk.

Capital is being tested. Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) must show that AI revenue supports massive spending under new supply constraints.

Crypto is waiting. Bitcoin near $77,000 reflects stability, but not direction. Institutional demand is growing while retail slows.

Everything arrives today.

The Fed, the vote, the earnings.

The market reacts after.