XRP hits Wall Street, Polymarket returns, and Bitcoin searches for a floor

Bitcoin fell back under the 100,000 level on Thursday, extending a pattern of weakness during U.S. trading hours as liquidity remains thin after the government shutdown. BTC dipped to roughly 98,500 before stabilizing, with analysts pointing out that whales accumulated more than 45,000 Bitcoin this week while leverage reset and derivatives positioning cooled.

Macro forces continue to dominate. Markets have priced out a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and the Nasdaq and S&P opened sharply lower. Crypto-linked equities were hit especially hard, with miners Bitdeer and Bitfarms falling more than 15 percent and broader crypto stocks sliding between 7 and 12 percent.

Despite the drawdown, JPMorgan maintains that Bitcoin’s production cost has risen to roughly 94,000, reinforcing a historically reliable price floor. Analysts continue to project a six to twelve month upside case near 170,000 once real yields stabilize.

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Canary Capital launched the first standard-route U.S. spot XRP ETF on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPC, giving investors direct exposure through traditional brokerages. The fund cleared its backlog of regulatory steps through the SEC’s new generic listing standards, filing a Form 8-A earlier this week and securing Nasdaq approval.

Other issuers including Bitwise, WisdomTree, and Grayscale have similar XRP products pending. REX Shares previously listed a hybrid XRP fund through a non-standard structure, and filings point to Dogecoin ETFs potentially going effective as early as November 23.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has quietly reopened its U.S. trading platform in beta. The company, which settled with the CFTC in 2022, is rolling out regulated domestic access through its acquisition of QCX. Early users are able to trade live markets as the platform finalizes its nationwide return.

Polymarket also announced a multiyear exclusive partnership with TKO Group to integrate real-time prediction markets into UFC and Zuffa Boxing broadcasts. The deal adds to a growing list of integrations across Google, Yahoo Finance, PrizePicks, DraftKings, and the NHL.

Japan Exchange Group is weighing new oversight standards for listed companies with large crypto treasuries after several high-profile digital asset firms saw sharp drawdowns. Regulators are exploring stricter interpretations of reverse merger rules and may require fresh audits for companies pivoting into large-scale crypto accumulation.

The scrutiny has already prompted some firms to pause planned purchases, though Japan’s largest treasury holders have said they are not under investigation. Shares of Metaplanet, Convano, and Bitcoin Japan all fell sharply on the news.

In the U.S., Grayscale filed for an initial public offering on the NYSE under the ticker GRAY. The firm reported 35 billion in assets under management and highlighted a 365 billion addressable market for its product suite. The IPO joins a wave of crypto companies going public under the Trump administration, including Circle, Gemini, and Figure.

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Bitcoin continued to show intraday weakness during U.S. sessions, breaking below 100,000 for the third time this month. Analysts noted a pattern of overnight strength in Asia followed by sell pressure during U.S. hours.

A strategist at Wincent said he expects the 2025 highs are already in for the year, with BTC likely to move sideways into the new year and resume a gradual climb thereafter. The near-term drag remains macro. With the shutdown temporarily driving a fiscal surplus for September and likely October, market liquidity dried up just as risk assets were searching for support.

Some analysts argue the trend will soon reverse. Fiscal data due later this month is expected to show a return to deficit levels, and the administration is preparing new spending measures heading into midterms. Any pickup in liquidity could help re-anchor price action around the 100,000 to 105,000 range.

Bitcoin ETF flows showed sharp divergence this week. On November 11, U.S. spot funds took in 524 million, the strongest print in over two weeks. On November 12, they saw 278 million in outflows as desks pulled back ahead of long-bond supply and today’s CPI release.

The split reveals how tightly ETF flows track long-term Treasury yields. When borrowing costs eased on Tuesday, creations surged and the spread between ETF prices and NAV compressed. When supply concerns returned, redemptions followed.

Bitcoin stayed pinned near the 100,000 midpoint throughout, a sign that institutional positioning rather than sentiment drove the turn. Spot liquidity remained steady, derivatives stayed orderly, and most selling was flow-driven rather than structural.

The larger pattern reflects a market waiting for direction from inflation. A cooler CPI print could ease real yields and reopen ETF inflows. A hotter number would keep desks cautious and extend the tight-range trade around 100,000.

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Block expanded its payments reach again, announcing that Cash App will support stablecoin transfers in 2026 using Solana’s network as the initial settlement layer. The feature will allow users to send digital dollars globally within seconds, supporting multiple tokens and networks over time.

The move comes just days after Block enabled Bitcoin payments for four million Square merchants. Cash App will also add an option later this month for users to pay Lightning invoices with dollars while merchants receive Bitcoin, converting funds internally in one tap.

This combination of stablecoin rails and Bitcoin settlement positions Block as both an on-ramp and a liquidity engine for mainstream crypto payments, blending fiat familiarity with digital asset flexibility.

This week drew a sharp line between stress and structure. Bitcoin softened as macro pressure built, yet whales accumulated. ETFs swung from heavy inflows to heavy outflows, yet the broader market held its range. XRP entered the ETF era. Polymarket returned to U.S. soil. Grayscale moved toward the NYSE.
Block kept tightening the bridge between Bitcoin and real-world payments.

The result is a market recalibrating rather than breaking. Crypto is absorbing rate anxiety and liquidity droughts while institutional rails expand beneath the surface. The volatility is real, but so is the scaffolding being built around it.

From ETFs to prediction markets to nationwide payments networks, the ecosystem is shifting from adolescence to architecture. The tape looks fragile, but the foundations look stronger each week.