AI Took Monday. Oil Took Some Back. Crypto Stayed Outside.

Equities kept buying AI. Oil kept warning that the Iran framework is not a final deal. Crypto kept missing the rally.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq entered the week at record highs after the S&P posted its ninth straight weekly gain. Futures stayed firm Monday as investors continued rotating into AI infrastructure, semiconductors, servers, and cloud spending.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) became the day's cleanest signal. Revenue jumped 40% year over year to $10.68 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at 79 cents versus 53 cents expected. Cloud and AI revenue reached $7.71 billion. Server revenue hit $5.45 billion, nearly $1 billion above forecasts. Shares surged almost 30%.

That matters because the AI trade is broadening beyond Nvidia (NVDA). Dell Technologies (DELL) showed it last week. HPE confirmed it Monday.

Nvidia (NVDA) added another layer at Computex, unveiling RTX Spark, a new AI PC chip built with MediaTek. Dell, HP, Microsoft, Asus, Lenovo Group, and MSI will ship systems using it this fall. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) fell on the announcement.

Bitcoin stayed near $73,000 despite record highs in equities.

The Signal

AI spending continues to spread across the infrastructure stack. Crypto is still waiting for its own catalyst.

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Oil jumped Monday after Iran-linked tensions widened again. Brent rose more than 4% toward $95 while WTI climbed above $92. The move reversed part of May's sharp decline, when crude posted its worst month since 2020 on hopes that Washington and Tehran were nearing a framework agreement.

The problem is that the framework is not a settlement.

Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah around Beirut. Fighting continued in southern Lebanon. Reports suggested Tehran could pause indirect talks with Washington if regional attacks continue.

That matters because the U.S.-Iran deal is no longer only about the Strait of Hormuz. It is also about Lebanon, Hezbollah, sanctions relief, frozen assets, shipping routes, and Iran's nuclear program.

The Strait remains the central market issue. Iran has threatened broader pressure on both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Disruption in either route would affect global energy flows.

President Trump said he was unaware talks had been suspended and said Hezbollah had agreed through intermediaries not to attack Israel. Oil traders remained skeptical.

Energy Signal

The market is no longer pricing a clean peace path. It is pricing a fragile framework with several failure points.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May from 52.7. It was the strongest reading in four years and beat expectations. New orders strengthened. Export demand improved. Companies continued building inventories as supply chains adjusted to Middle East disruptions.

The details were less encouraging.

Manufacturers reported shortages in semiconductors, steel, aluminum, and electronic components. Supplier delivery times remained slow. More than half of surveyed firms cited pricing volatility. No industry reported falling raw material costs.

Employment remained weak, with factory payrolls contracting for the 32nd time in 33 months.

That is the macro challenge in one report. Demand is firm. Costs are rising. Hiring remains soft.

Markets now see a meaningful chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Friday's payroll report is the week's biggest macro event. Economists expect 85,000 to 90,000 jobs added in May, down from 115,000 in April.

Macro Signal

Growth remains resilient enough to support earnings. Inflation remains sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious.

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Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, becoming the first frontier AI company to formally begin the public market process. Its valuation has surged from $380 billion in February to $965 billion in May. Revenue run rate is now approaching $47 billion.

The filing matters because timing matters.

SpaceX is expected to list June 12. OpenAI is expected to follow. Anthropic now has the first opportunity to shape how public markets value frontier AI companies.

The AI coding market is one reason. Anthropic's Claude Code leads the category. OpenAI's Codex, Microsoft Copilot from Microsoft (MSFT), and Gemini from Alphabet (GOOGL) are racing to catch up. Analysts expect the market to grow from $9.3 billion in 2026 to roughly $30 billion by 2031.

Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are fighting for more than subscriptions. They want developers building inside their ecosystems because coding assistants drive cloud spending and platform adoption.

SpaceX also disclosed an unusual IPO structure. Five percent of shares will be reserved for selected buyers who may receive earlier liquidity than typical IPO investors.

Capital Signal

The AI IPO race has officially begun. Anthropic filed. SpaceX is next. OpenAI is likely behind it.

Bitcoin remained near $73,000 while equities traded near records. ETF outflows remain the biggest problem. Investors have not yet returned in size.

The infrastructure story is more active than the price story.

Binance launched trading for more than 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs. The move pushes Binance closer to Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as platforms increasingly combine traditional and digital assets.

Coinbase (COIN) reopened crypto trading in India using rupee deposits and withdrawals. The move gives Coinbase direct access to one of the world's largest retail crypto markets.

Japan is moving toward wider use of yen-backed stablecoins and crypto ETFs. Policymakers want to prevent dollar stablecoins from dominating Asia's digital settlement layer.

Bitmine (BMNR) purchased another 26,497 ETH, bringing holdings to 5.42 million ETH, or about 4.5% of Ethereum's circulating supply. The company estimates annual staking revenue near $258 million.

The strangest crypto story belonged to Strategy (MSTR). The company disclosed it sold 32 BTC before May 31, creating a dispute inside a $20 million Polymarket contract over whether outcomes should be based on event timing or public disclosure.

The Verdict

Crypto infrastructure continues advancing. Capital flows are still moving elsewhere.

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Monday confirmed the market's hierarchy.

AI is first.

Energy is second.

Crypto is third.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) quarter showed AI spending is spreading into servers and enterprise infrastructure. Nvidia's (NVDA) AI PC chip showed the company is moving from data centers into personal devices. Anthropic's IPO filing showed private AI leaders are preparing to test public markets.

Oil reminded investors that the Iran framework remains fragile. Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb are now part of the same risk map.

Bitcoin stayed outside the rally.

That remains the defining split as June begins. Capital is flowing toward AI infrastructure, frontier models, cloud platforms, and compute. Crypto has the products, the regulatory fights, and the infrastructure. It still lacks the flows.

Friday's payroll report will determine whether rates stay quiet enough for the AI trade to keep running.

For now, AI still owns the tape.