ASML Lifts Guidance Again. Kospi Surges 6%. PPI Lands Today. Warsh Returns to Capitol Hill.

ASML (ASML) raised its 2026 revenue guidance for the second time this year as AI chip demand continues to accelerate. Shares jumped more than 7% in Amsterdam.

South Korea led global markets. The Kospi surged 6.3% after SK Hynix ADRs (SKHYV) climbed 10% and Samsung gained 6%. The Korea Exchange triggered a buy-side sidecar after Kospi 200 futures rose 5%, pausing program trading for five minutes. Japan's Nikkei added 0.9%, helped by a 4.8% gain in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries after announcing an AI data center partnership with Nvidia (NVDA).

Europe moved the other way. Germany's DAX fell 0.9%, the FTSE slipped 0.5%, and France's CAC lost 0.25% as investors continued to digest IBM's (IBM) record 25% collapse.

U.S. futures were mixed. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.77%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.21%. Dow futures were little changed.

The calendar is busy.

PPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET. Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PNC, and BNY Mellon (BK) report before the open. United Airlines (UAL) reports after the close. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh returns to Capitol Hill at 10 a.m. before the Senate Banking Committee.

The Signal

ASML says AI spending is accelerating. IBM says enterprise software is slowing. The market now has two AI stories to price at the same time.

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Brent traded near $85 while WTI held around $79 after President Trump dropped the proposed 20% Hormuz transit fee and replaced it with future trade and investment agreements with Gulf states.

The fee is gone.

The military risk remains.

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues. Airstrikes continue. BP lowered second-quarter upstream production guidance to 2.17 million to 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, citing Middle East disruption and maintenance.

Pakistan is seeking additional LNG cargoes as Qatari shipments remain constrained. Iraq requested a one-year extension for the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Iran insists exports continue despite renewed U.S. restrictions.

These are supply problems, not headline problems.

Energy Signal

The fee disappeared. The supply disruption did not. Oil is still pricing a tighter physical market.

The two-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.20% after briefly touching 4.30% Tuesday. The 10-year held near 4.50%.

Markets have largely priced out a July move.

Warsh has not.

His House testimony kept inflation concerns front and center and rejected any "mission accomplished" view after Tuesday's softer CPI report.

Today's Senate hearing matters because it gives Warsh another chance to define the Fed's next move.

PPI arrives before he speaks.

A soft wholesale inflation report strengthens the case that June CPI was not an accident. A hotter report gives the Fed room to keep September on the table.

Senators are also expected to question Warsh about June's FOMC minutes, which showed policymakers divided over the appropriate path for rates.

Macro Signal

Markets have largely ruled out July. Warsh decides whether September stays alive.

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Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, PNC, and Johnson & Johnson report before the open.

Yesterday's bank earnings set a high bar. Goldman Sachs (GS) surged after strong trading results while JPMorgan (JPM) reported record quarterly profit.

Today shifts attention toward wealth management, asset flows, and institutional investing.

The bigger story remains AI.

ASML raised guidance again, saying customers continue expanding AI chip production faster than new lithography tools can be installed.

That directly contrasts with IBM's weak outlook.

Chip manufacturing remains capacity constrained.

Enterprise software remains demand constrained.

The AI trade is splitting into clear winners and losers.

Other major reports are coming quickly.

TSMC (TSM) and Netflix (NFLX) report Thursday. United Airlines (UAL) reports after today's close, offering another read on travel demand and fuel costs.

SpaceX (SPCX) has now surrendered nearly all of its post-IPO gains, showing that passive index buying has faded and fundamentals are taking over.

Capital Signal

ASML strengthened the AI hardware story. IBM weakened the software story. Earnings season will determine which side leads the next move.

Bitcoin traded near $64,700 after rallying on softer CPI. Ether remained around $1,740 while Solana held recent gains.

Tuesday's rally triggered roughly $376 million in liquidations, including more than $113 million in Bitcoin shorts and $127 million in Ether shorts.

That was largely short covering.

ETF demand remains mixed.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have alternated between inflows and outflows throughout July after June's record $4.5 billion in redemptions. The market still needs sustained institutional buying.

Technically, Bitcoin must hold above recent breakout levels to challenge the $66,600 to $67,600 range. Failure could send prices back toward the $58,000 to $60,000 area that has supported every major decline this year.

Policy also remains in focus.

The GENIUS Act stablecoin deadline arrives July 18, while the CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate.

The Verdict

Bitcoin has regained macro support. It still needs ETF demand to confirm the move.

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Wednesday tests whether Tuesday's relief can last.

ASML reinforced the AI buildout. IBM challenged enterprise software. South Korea reminded investors how quickly sentiment can reverse when positioning becomes crowded.

Today adds another layer.

PPI arrives before the open. Warsh returns to Capitol Hill. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson extend earnings season. United Airlines reports after the close.

Tomorrow brings TSMC and Netflix.

The market has already priced softer inflation.

Today it has to decide whether that was the beginning of a trend or just one good report.