Bitcoin Broke $80,000. Xi Warned on Taiwan. H200 Chips Are Moving.

Xi Jinping told Trump that mishandling Taiwan could create an extremely dangerous situation. Bitcoin fell below $80,000. Solana dropped 5.6%. Asian equities swung both ways.

The rest of the summit was more constructive. Trump and Xi agreed to a framework of strategic stability. Xi said China’s door to business will open wider. Trump said the relationship will be better than ever. Both sides agreed Hormuz must remain open and Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

The chip trade got its catalyst.

The U.S. cleared about ten Chinese firms, including Alibaba(BABA), Tencent(TCEHY), and ByteDance, to buy Nvidia(NVDA) H200 chips. No deliveries have happened yet. Beijing still needs to approve purchases while protecting its domestic chip sector. But the approval exists. Nvidia(NVDA) reached $5.5 trillion in market value.

Retail sales land at 8:30. The Clarity Act markup starts at 10:30.

The Signal

The summit gave markets cooperation on chips and Hormuz, tension on Taiwan, and no clean resolution. The market is buying the cooperation and watching the risk.

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Trump and Xi agreed the Strait must remain open. China also expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern crude. That puts pressure on Tehran, but it does not reopen the waterway.

Brent slipped 2% to $105.63. WTI fell to $101. Both remain above $100 because the physical system has not changed.

The IEA said global supply has declined by a cumulative 12.8 million barrels per day since February. OPEC spare capacity is down to a record low of 170,000 barrels per day. Even if Hormuz flows gradually resume from June, demand growth does not return until August. Rebuilding inventories could take three years.

U.S. energy producers are not rushing to drill. Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Chevron(CVX) are still focused on shareholder returns. Oil is above the $66 breakeven for new wells, but capital discipline is holding.

Energy Signal

The U.S. and China now agree on Hormuz. Iran has not moved. That is diplomacy, not normalization.

After CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, the question is whether consumers are still spending through the energy shock.

A weak number opens the stagflation conversation. A strong number keeps the resilience story alive.

The bond market has already moved. The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5%. The 10-year is near 4.5%. The 2-year is near 4%. Futures now price roughly 50% odds that the next Fed move is a 25-basis-point hike in April 2027.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed chair. He inherits a steepening curve, rising inflation, and a divided committee. BCA warned that dovish first remarks from Warsh could push inflation expectations higher and pressure the long end.

The summit’s trade signals were constructive but limited. The U.S. and China discussed market access, investment, agriculture, aerospace, and managed stability. That is not a breakthrough. It is a controlled pause.

Macro Signal

Retail sales decides whether the consumer is cracking. Bonds have already decided inflation is not temporary.

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Nvidia(NVDA) had been locked out of China’s most advanced AI chip market for years. Huang has estimated China’s AI market at $50 billion this year. Before export controls tightened, Nvidia(NVDA) held about 95% of China’s advanced chip market.

The path is still complicated. Sales require U.S. revenue-sharing rules, Chinese security reviews, and political approval from both sides. But the door reopened.

Cisco Systems(CSCO) confirmed the AI networking trade. Revenue rose 12% to $15.84 billion. AI infrastructure orders reached $5.3 billion year to date. Cisco(CSCO) raised its full-year AI order forecast from $5 billion to $9 billion. Networking revenue grew 25%. The stock surged 17% after hours.

The pattern is clear. Companies are not slowing AI spending. They are cutting around it.

The risk is cash.

The five largest cloud companies are expected to spend $800 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Amazon(AMZN), Meta Platforms(META), and Microsoft(MSFT) may each report negative free cash flow in at least one quarter. Future revenue commitments have reached $2 trillion. Off-balance-sheet lease obligations are at $820 billion.

Capital Signal

Cisco(CSCO) raised the AI order bar. H200 chips are approved for China but not delivered. The AI trade is real. The financing is getting heavier.

Xi’s Taiwan warning hit risk sentiment before the summit statement landed. Bitcoin fell to $79,200, down 2.3% over 24 hours. Solana fell 5.6% to $90. Ether dropped 2.1% to $2,250. XRP slipped 1.7% to $1.43. Dogecoin was the only major green, up 0.9%.

ETF flows turned sharply.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $635 million in outflows Wednesday, the largest since late January. Five-day outflows reached $1.26 billion. Cumulative net inflows fell to $58.5 billion from $59.76 billion a week ago.

That follows six straight weeks of net inflows totaling nearly $4.9 billion. This looks macro-driven, not structural. But it still matters.

The $78,000 level is next support. A break below that puts the late-April capitulation zone back in play.

The Clarity Act markup starts at 10:30. The stablecoin yield compromise and DeFi protections are in the text. The ethics provision is still unresolved. Seven Democratic votes are still needed for the full Senate.

Moody’s assigned AAA-mf ratings to tokenized money market funds from Fidelity and BlackRock(BLK). Tokenized U.S. government debt has grown from $1 billion to more than $15 billion in two years.

The CFTC also eased reporting requirements for prediction market platforms, including Polymarket US and Kalshi.

The Verdict

Bitcoin broke $80,000 on Taiwan risk and ETF outflows. The Clarity Act faces its first test today. Tokenized Treasurys just gained another institutional stamp.

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Thursday opens with two stories moving against each other.

The summit gave markets what they wanted on chips and Hormuz. H200 approvals reopened the China question for Nvidia(NVDA). The joint Hormuz statement gave oil markets a diplomatic signal. That is the bullish side.

Xi’s Taiwan warning gave the bearish side. Bitcoin broke $80,000. ETF outflows hit $635 million. Asian risk moved immediately.

Retail sales at 8:30 tells us whether consumers are absorbing the oil shock. The Clarity Act markup at 10:30 tells us whether crypto regulation can survive its first formal gate.

The AI trade is still outperforming almost everything that should be stopping it.