Bitcoin's Worst Week Since FTX. Payrolls Surged. SpaceX Lists in Seven Days.

May nonfarm payrolls jumped 172,000, far above the 80,000 consensus and JPMorgan's 75,000 estimate. April was revised up to 179,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%.

That is not a soft labor print. It is a Fed problem.

The economy is still adding jobs at nearly twice the expected pace while inflation remains sticky and oil risk has not disappeared. GDP grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 and is tracking near 3% in Q2, according to the Atlanta Fed. That gives the Fed less room to look through price pressure.

The second story is SpaceX.

Late Thursday, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to change its eligibility rules. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will need to wait at least 12 months after listing before joining the S&P 500. Nasdaq already allows entry within 15 days. FTSE Russell cut its waiting period to five days. S&P held firm.

That means trillions in passive S&P capital will not automatically buy SpaceX when it lists next week.

Futures were weaker before the payrolls print. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.5%. South Korea's Kospi plunged 5.5% as the Broadcom (AVGO) hangover spread through Asia. SK Hynix fell nearly 10%.

Bitcoin dropped toward $61,000.

The Signal

Payrolls revived the hike debate. The S&P decision limits automatic SpaceX demand. Both hit before the largest IPO in history lists next week.

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President Trump said Thursday he would be "honored" to meet Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if it helped secure an agreement. Brent crude moved toward $94. WTI traded near $92.

The ceasefire story remains messy.

Hezbollah rejected the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon agreement. Israel said it would not withdraw forces from southern Lebanon. Fighting continues despite diplomatic efforts.

Yet oil has not responded aggressively.

Markets increasingly believe Trump wants a deal more than an escalation. That belief continues to outweigh the daily headlines.

The larger shift may be in energy policy. The Iran war has turned energy security into a broader debate. European executives increasingly argue that domestic renewables plus battery storage offer more reliable energy security than supply chains dependent on chokepoints like Hormuz.

Energy Signal

Oil is easing because markets expect diplomacy. The ceasefire remains fragile. The energy security debate is becoming structural.

A 172,000 jobs print keeps the labor market solid and makes the Fed's inflation problem harder. Employers are not firing aggressively. Hiring is not collapsing. The economy remains firm enough that policymakers can stay focused on price pressure.

That matters because Fed officials have already shifted away from cuts.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan highlighted another concern this week. During a visit to El Paso, she described how AI-related construction is creating localized labor shortages. Three large data centers near Fort Bliss are competing for manufacturing and construction workers. Wage pressures are building locally even though national data has not fully captured them.

That is the macro tension in one sentence: AI may be disinflationary later, but it is inflationary in labor and construction markets now.

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen roughly 70 basis points since the Iran war began. Inflation expectations have risen far less. Investors are demanding more compensation for uncertainty, not just pricing higher inflation.

A soft payrolls print could have eased that pressure. The market got the opposite.

Macro Signal

Payrolls came in at 172,000. The labor market is not cracking. June 17 is now a more serious Fed meeting.

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The first is SpaceX.

By refusing to fast-track eligibility, S&P Dow Jones created a split between passive strategies. Nasdaq 100 funds may absorb SpaceX within weeks. S&P 500 funds will wait at least a year.

That divergence has never existed at this scale.

The second is Anthropic.

The company published a blog post Thursday arguing that top AI labs should retain the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development if systems approach recursive self-improvement.

At the same time, Anthropic is racing toward a valuation near $1 trillion and a revenue run rate approaching $50 billion annualized.

The contradiction captures the AI cycle. The companies building the technology are becoming more vocal about risks while accelerating deployment at the same time.

The third story is power.

Bernstein initiated coverage of bitcoin miners TeraWulf (WULF) and Cipher Digital (CIFR), arguing AI revenue across the sector could grow from $1.2 billion in 2026 to $10.7 billion by 2030.

Mining companies have signed more than $110 billion worth of AI-related power agreements in the past two years.

The cheapest power in America once mattered because of bitcoin. It now matters because of AI.

Capital Signal

SpaceX remains outside the S&P. Anthropic wants safeguards while pursuing hypergrowth. Bitcoin miners are becoming AI infrastructure providers.

Bitcoin fell toward $61,000 Friday morning, down roughly 14.5% on the week. Ethereum traded near $1,700. Total liquidations over the past four days reached approximately $4.5 billion.

The payrolls print makes the setup worse.

A stronger labor market supports higher-for-longer rates and reduces the chance of near-term Fed relief. That hits bitcoin directly because the asset is now trading like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not digital gold.

The next level is obvious.

Bitcoin's largest concentration of institutional cost basis sits between $60,000 and $67,000. As prices move through that range, unrealized losses are increasing while AI stocks continue attracting capital.

At $60,000, more than $1 billion of put exposure sits in the options market. A break lower could force dealers to sell into weakness, accelerating downside pressure.

ETF flows remain the largest problem. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now recorded 13 straight sessions of net outflows totaling roughly $4.4 billion.

Meanwhile, derivatives markets are shifting attention elsewhere. Coinbase (COIN) launched SpaceX perpetual contracts this week. Investors who once used crypto as their primary growth vehicle are finding new opportunities through AI and private-market exposure. Zcash fell 30% Thursday after a deeper disclosure. The Orchard bug could have allowed unlimited counterfeit ZEC creation since 2022. There is no cryptographic proof it was never exploited.

The Verdict

Bitcoin's worst week since FTX. ETF outflows continue. Payrolls made Fed relief less likely. The $60,000 level is now the market's most important line.

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SpaceX will not receive automatic S&P 500 demand when it lists next week. Bitcoin is approaching a major technical and positioning level. Anthropic is warning about AI acceleration while racing toward a trillion-dollar valuation.

Those are not separate stories.

They are different expressions of the same capital cycle.

Money continues to move toward AI infrastructure, power, compute, and frontier models. Crypto is losing flows at the same time.

The payrolls report did not give the Fed an exit. It gave Warsh a stronger economy, a tighter labor market, and less room to cut.

That keeps pressure on bitcoin and keeps the AI trade dependent on earnings rather than easier money.

The next move in rates may decide whether AI keeps running and whether bitcoin finally finds a floor.