Broadcom Missed the Bar. Bitcoin Hit $63,000. The AI Trade Is Taking a Breath.

Broadcom (AVGO) fell 12% premarket after fiscal second-quarter revenue narrowly missed estimates and the company declined to raise its long-term AI chip target. Guidance was not weak. Broadcom guided Q3 revenue to $29.4 billion, above expectations, and said AI chip revenue would hit $16 billion next quarter. The problem was the bar. Investors wanted CEO Hock Tan to raise the $100 billion 2027 AI chip target. He reiterated it instead.

That was not enough for a stock up 38% this year before earnings.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell 10% for the same reason. The company beat estimates and raised guidance, but the stock was up 60% this year going in. The market is now punishing anything that falls short of perfection.

The pressure spread through the AI complex. Marvell Technology (MRVL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Intel (INTC) all moved lower premarket. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.3%. The Dow was slightly higher as oil eased on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire news.

Bitcoin fell to $63,000, its lowest level since February 24. Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Strategy (MSTR) all traded lower premarket.

The Signal

The AI trade is not broken. It is digesting. The question is whether Broadcom’s $100 billion AI target is now viewed as a ceiling or a floor.

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Hezbollah was not party to the talks, which limits how durable it is. Still, Brent fell toward $95, the week's first break in the oil risk premium.

The broader Iran track remains unresolved. Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday that no tangible progress had been made with the U.S. and that any hostile act would trigger an immediate response. Trump said a deal could come this weekend. That gap defines the market.

The House voted 215-208 Wednesday to restrict Trump's Iran war powers, with four Republicans breaking ranks. And on the same day advanced Ukraine aid 218-204. Both measures face long odds in the Senate. But with 60% of respondents opposing U.S. military action in Iran in a recent Fox News poll, the votes signal that congressional and public support for the war is eroding as midterms approach.

Energy Signal

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removes one failure point from the Iran map. It does not solve Hormuz. It only lowers the immediate oil risk premium.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Wednesday that a rate hike may be needed this year. She was one of three officials who dissented at the last meeting, arguing the Fed should signal that hikes are possible, not just cuts.

Her reasoning was direct. Financial conditions remain loose. AI investment is fueling demand. Inflation is trending toward the mid-2s, not 2%. “These conditions indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy,” she said.

That is the clearest hike signal from a voting Fed member this cycle.

It lands two weeks before Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 17. Warsh has argued AI is disinflationary. Logan is saying the opposite: AI is adding demand before it lowers prices.

Jobless claims land at 8:30 a.m. Payrolls arrive Friday. Consensus expects 80,000 jobs added in May. A strong print raises hike odds. A weak print gives Warsh a different problem.

Macro Signal

The path to cuts is longer than it was a week ago. Payrolls now decide whether the hike debate becomes the main June story.

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AI chip revenue doubled year over year to $10.8 billion. The company booked more than $30 billion in AI chip orders and shipped $10.8 billion. That gap is not weak demand. It is deployment timing. Customers are ordering faster than they can absorb capacity.

The company’s six core AI customers, including Anthropic, Google (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and OpenAI, received more detail than last quarter. Broadcom also signed a long-term deal with Google in April covering future TPU chip generations. That relationship did not weaken Wednesday night.

The market simply wanted a larger target.

SpaceX begins its investor roadshow today at $135 per share, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75 billion raise. The June 12 listing remains the largest capital markets event on the calendar.

Quantinuum (QNT) also begins trading today after raising $1.68 billion at $60 per share. It is the first major quantum computing IPO to use a traditional listing instead of a SPAC. The company is targeting a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2030.

The AI buildout is also meeting resistance. Amazon (AMZN) engineers testified in support of Seattle’s one-year moratorium on large-scale AI data center development. The council approved it unanimously. Fourteen states are now considering similar measures.

Capital Signal

Broadcom’s business is fine. The stock showed expectations were not. SpaceX starts its roadshow today. The AI capital cycle is still moving, but the valuation bar is tightening.

The ETF outflow streak reached 13 sessions Wednesday, with another $50 million leaving U.S. spot bitcoin funds. Total outflows since May 15 now exceed $3.5 billion. BVIV, the bitcoin fear gauge, rose to 53.17, its highest level since early April.

Bitcoin is down 14% this week, 21% over four weeks, and more than 40% from its October peak above $126,000.

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick argued the low is "almost in," pointing to two signals: spot ETF holdings remain near 674,000 bitcoin despite the outflow streak, and Strategy's last bitcoin sale in December 2022 was followed within days by a larger repurchase. Kendrick expects a 10x to 100x buyback this time and maintained his $100,000 year-end target.

Coinbase (COIN) launched pre-IPO perpetual futures Thursday, starting with SpaceX. The contracts are USDC-settled, offer up to 5x leverage, and convert to standard perps if the IPO closes. Coinbase said SpaceX is the first in a broader pipeline covering AI, energy, and space IPOs.

Zcash was the rare winner, rising 10% after developers patched a critical Orchard privacy-pool vulnerability. No exploit occurred. The market treated the fix as a resilience signal.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is still falling. ETF outflows are still active. But crypto infrastructure is adapting to the AI IPO cycle instead of just losing to it.

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Is the AI trade pausing or breaking?

Broadcom gave investors strong AI revenue, a large order book, and long-term customer visibility. The stock fell because the market wanted a higher ceiling.

Bitcoin is different. The ETF streak is now 13 sessions. Traders are buying $50,000 puts. Standard Chartered is calling a bottom. Both can be true: the institutional bid is weaker, and the worst selling may be close.

Payrolls arrive tomorrow. SpaceX lists in eight days.

The AI trade has absorbed oil spikes, Iran escalation, and Fed hike talk all year.

Bitcoin has absorbed none of them.