U.S.-Iran negotiators have the makings of a 60-day framework. Oil stayed volatile as sanctions continued. Dell surged 39% on AI server demand. Costco showed the value trade is alive. Bitcoin hovered near $73,000 despite record stocks.
MARKET PULSE
Friday opens with markets still leaning into the deal trade.
The reason was simple. Investors believe the U.S. and Iran are closer to a framework that extends the ceasefire for 60 days and starts reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides have the “makings of a deal.” The draft would gradually unwind maritime restrictions over 30 days, create a path for broader nuclear talks, and tie economic relief to verification.
But this is not a peace deal yet.
Trump still has to approve it. Iran still wants sanctions relief, access to frozen funds, and influence over Hormuz management. Washington still wants unrestricted shipping, highly enriched uranium surrendered, and a pledge that Iran never pursues a nuclear weapon.
Markets are pricing progress, not completion.
Oil stayed volatile. Brent remains near the low $90s after falling from panic highs, but sanctions and shipping uncertainty continue to hold a risk premium in place.
The Signal
The market is buying the bridge deal. It is not yet pricing a finished settlement.
Premier Feature
The AI trade that made the Mag 7 soar is starting to crack.
Overpriced giants like Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon are facing slowing returns — just as smaller, lesser-known names are positioning to take market share.
Waiting could be costly.
Three under-the-radar AI stocks are already showing the potential to outperform the Mag 7 in 2026.
Make sure these alternatives are on your radar before markets open tomorrow.
ENERGY
Iran is under pressure, but not cut off.
That is the key energy story.
Iran is still exporting roughly 1.4 million barrels per day to China through a shadow fleet. The trade uses aging tankers, shell companies, name changes, hidden ship IDs, and ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia near the Eastern Outer Port Limits.
The scale matters.
Iran earned roughly $31 billion from oil sales to China last year. That represented about 90% of its oil exports and nearly half of government revenue. The shadow fleet now numbers around 1,500 vessels.
That explains why the regime has survived sanctions for years. It also explains why the U.S. keeps tightening pressure even while negotiating.
Washington imposed fresh sanctions on eight vessels and more than 15 companies tied to Iran’s military-linked oil network. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. will not allow Iran to rebuild military capacity through oil revenue.
So the policy split is clear.
The U.S. is open to a ceasefire framework. It is not lifting pressure on Iran’s oil machine yet.
That is why oil is not collapsing. A deal could reopen Hormuz. But the black-market oil system, sanctions risk, insurance costs, and verification process will not reset overnight.
Energy Signal
A 60-day framework can cool the market. It does not instantly normalize Iranian exports or Gulf shipping.
MACRO
Inflation pressure is still spreading.
That strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to raise rates in June. Europe is facing the same problem as the U.S.: lower growth, higher energy costs, and less room for central banks to look through the shock.
France’s economy already contracted 0.1% in the first quarter. Eurozone GDP grew just 0.1%. Private-sector activity has fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low.
That is the stagflation risk in plain form.
In the U.S., jobless claims rose to 215,000. Continuing claims increased to 1.79 million. The labor market is not breaking, but workers are taking slightly longer to find jobs.
Consumers are also becoming more cautious. The labor-market differential slipped to 6.9% from 7.5%.
The macro story is no longer clean resilience. It is resilience with soft edges.
Macro Signal
Inflation is still too high, growth is slowing, and central banks are losing the luxury of patience.
From Our Partners
Warren Buffett Once Passed on Amazon
"I was too dumb to realize it. I did not think Bezos could succeed on the scale he has."
By the time most people saw what Amazon was doing to retail, it was too late to get in early.
Mode Mobile is doing to the $1T+ smartphone industry what Amazon did to retail — turning everyday phones into money-making machines.
The traction is already there:
490M+ users earning passive income from their phones
$1B+ saved and earned by users worldwide
32,481% revenue growth — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company
$115M+ in revenue and climbing
People spend 30+ hours a week on their phones. Mode figured out how to monetize that time and pay users directly.
They've secured the $MODE ticker from Nasdaq — signaling plans to go public soon.
Unlike Amazon, you can still get in early…
Disclaimer: Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
CAPITAL
AI still owns the equity market.
Dell (DELL) surged 39% after raising its AI server outlook. Lenovo posted its strongest weekly gain in nearly three decades. Samsung (005930) jumped more than 6% after shipping samples of next-generation HBM4E memory chips. LG Electronics (003550) rose nearly 24% on AI-powered auto technology with Google.
The same capital pattern keeps repeating.
Investors are buying anything tied to compute, memory, energy, servers, and AI infrastructure.
Memory chips are now the clearest symbol. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix (000660), and Micron Technology (MU) are all worth more than $1 trillion. Together, they are worth roughly 22% more than the three largest oil companies, even with Saudi Aramco near $1.8 trillion.
That comparison matters.
Memory used to trade like oil: cyclical, volatile, and supply-driven. AI is turning it into strategic infrastructure. Hyperscalers have already locked up roughly two-thirds of global server-grade DRAM production. SK Hynix says demand exceeds supply for the next three years. Micron signed its first five-year supply agreement. Sandisk says five customers have contracted for more than one-third of next year’s capacity.
The AI software race also intensified. Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI. The company is expected to reach $50 billion in annualized revenue next month and may achieve operating profitability in Q2. Its growth is coming from Claude and Claude Code, not consumer chat.
That is the new AI battleground: enterprise workflows and coding automation.
Capital Signal
The market is not just buying AI models. It is buying the full stack: chips, memory, servers, software, power, and enterprise automation.
CRYPTO PULSE
Crypto did not follow the records.
Bitcoin hovered near $73,000 after falling almost 6% over the past week. Ether stayed below $2,000. Major altcoins also remained weak.
That is the important divergence.
Global equities hit records. Oil fell sharply in May. Middle East fears eased. But crypto failed to participate.
Spot bitcoin ETF demand has cooled. Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages. Investors are waiting for regulatory clarity and fresh institutional inflows before adding risk.
Washington remains central.
The new ARMA bill would lock U.S. government bitcoin holdings into a strategic reserve for at least 20 years. It drops the old 1 million BTC purchase target and instead studies budget-neutral acquisition methods. It also requires quarterly proof-of-reserve disclosures and independent audits.
That is structurally bullish, but slower than the market once hoped.
The SEC also delayed its tokenized-asset exemption over concerns about synthetic tokens that mimic public stocks without full shareholder rights. Regulators appear more comfortable with issuer-backed tokens and registered transfer agents.
The Verdict
Bitcoin has policy support but not price momentum. Stocks have earnings. Crypto still needs flows.
From Our Partners
Central Banks Are Lying About Gold
Jerome Powell says gold isn’t money. The Fed says inflation is under control.
Last year, they bought more gold than at any time since 1967. China dumped $100B in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, Turkey… all loading up.
This isn’t a trend. It’s a panic.
After the U.S. froze Russia’s assets, the world learned a hard lesson: there’s only one asset no one can freeze.
Gold.
I’ve just released an urgent report on one stock positioned to benefit as this rush accelerates.
CLOSING LENS
Friday’s market is built on two assumptions.
First, the U.S. and Iran can extend the ceasefire long enough to reopen Hormuz and slow the energy shock.
Second, AI earnings can keep overpowering every macro warning.
Both assumptions are plausible. Neither is settled.
Iran still sells oil through a 1,500-vessel shadow fleet. U.S. sanctions are still expanding. Europe’s inflation is rising again. U.S. claims are edging higher. Consumers are more cautious.
At the same time, AI infrastructure keeps absorbing capital at historic speed. Dell, Samsung, Anthropic, memory chips, and servers are all telling the same story.
Bitcoin is telling a different one.
It is not collapsing. It is waiting.
The market is not trading peace yet.
It is trading the possibility that peace arrives before inflation becomes permanent.
