Intel Surged. Oil Didn't Stop. The Week Ends Unresolved.

Nasdaq futures rose 0.6% on Intel(INTC)’s surge. S&P 500 futures were flat. Dow futures fell about 160 points as oil extended gains. Brent is above $106. WTI is near $96.

Thursday broke momentum. The Nasdaq fell 0.9%, its worst session in weeks. Software led losses. Semiconductors held up. Texas Instruments(TXN) rose about 12%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF extended its streak.

Intel(INTC) is the driver.

Revenue came in at $13.6 billion, about 11% above estimates. Q2 guidance was raised to $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, ahead of consensus. The stock jumped about 20% after hours.

AI demand is shifting compute needs. The CPU-to-GPU mix is moving from 1-to-8 toward 1-to-4. That benefits Intel. The company is tied to Terafab with Tesla(TSLA) and SpaceX. It also carries a government stake.

If the move holds, it will be Intel’s strongest reaction to earnings.

The ceiling is unchanged.

The U.S. added another carrier to the region. Trump ordered action against mine-laying vessels. There are no active talks. The Strait remains constrained.

Michigan sentiment is due at 10 a.m. Early data points to a weak reading.

The Signal

Intel(INTC) sets the floor. The Strait sets the ceiling. The week ends without resolution.

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Brent is above $106. WTI is near $96. This is the fifth straight gain and the strongest weekly move since early March.

The driver is physical.

Iran deployed more naval mines this week. The Pentagon said clearing them could take six months after conflict ends. That turns the disruption into a long-term constraint.

Supply is not flowing.

The Strait handles about 20% of global oil supply. Traffic remains limited. There is no clear path to reopening.

Inflation pressure is already visible.

Japan’s core inflation rose to 1.8% in March, driven by energy. The Bank of Japan meets next week. Markets are starting to price a tighter stance.

That matters globally.

A stronger yen can tighten global liquidity and force position unwinds.

There is also a structural shift.

The IEA said solar covered more than 25% of new energy demand in 2025. Renewables produced more electricity than coal for the first time in over a century.

That is now an energy security signal.

Energy Signal

Oil is pricing a multi-month disruption. Each day the Strait stays constrained adds to that timeline.

Warsh’s preferred trimmed-mean inflation measure reads near 2.3%. Core PCE is closer to 3%.

That looks softer.

It may not remain so.

Trimmed measures can rise when smaller price increases spread across categories. If used, the Fed must follow the same measure when it moves higher.

That removes flexibility. There may also be a political path forward.

Trump signaled openness to an alternative investigation into Powell. That could ease pressure around Warsh’s confirmation if the DOJ probe is dropped.

Next week is critical.

The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all meet. Energy-driven inflation is the shared problem.

Earnings will also matter.

Alphabet(GOOGL), Meta Platforms(META), Amazon(AMZN), Microsoft(MSFT), and Apple(AAPL) all report.

Macro Signal

The inflation framework is unresolved. Policy direction is unclear. Next week will define expectations.

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The software selloff was not broad. It was selective.

Intel(INTC) revenue grew 7% to $13.6 billion. Data center revenue reached $5.1 billion, above expectations. AI demand is increasing general compute needs.

That supports Intel.

The CEO highlighted the Terafab link with Tesla(TSLA) and SpaceX. The 14A process is expected to align with that buildout. The stock has rallied sharply since the government stake announcement.

The question is sustainability.

China is building its own stack.

DeepSeek launched a new model on Huawei chips. It competes with leading open-source systems. At the same time, regulators moved to restrict U.S. investment in domestic AI firms.

That is a structural split.

Across hardware, models, and capital.

SpaceX shows the other side.

Starlink generated $4.42 billion in operating profit. AI operations lost $6.4 billion. Capex reached $20.7 billion. Funding needs remain high.

Oracle(ORCL) faces a similar issue.

Its OpenAI-linked financing has hit constraints. Banks are limiting exposure. The company still needs significant capital beyond current raises.

Capital Signal

Intel(INTC) shows near-term demand. China is accelerating independence. Large AI builds still face funding pressure.

It approached $78,700 and pulled back. The rally from March lows has paused. Ether moved lower toward $2,300.

The ETF bid remains strong.

Spot ETFs have seen eight straight days of inflows, totaling about $2.1 billion. Total net inflows are near $58 billion. Assets are about $102 billion, around 6.5% of market cap. BlackRock’s IBIT leads flows.

Supply is the constraint.

Bitcoin reclaimed its True Market Mean near $78,100. The next level is near $80,100. That has marked resistance.

Short-term holders are selling into strength. Realized profits are running near $4.4 million per hour, above typical thresholds.

Infrastructure is expanding.

Morgan Stanley(MS) launched a stablecoin reserve product focused on Treasuries and repo. The stablecoin market is about $316 billion.

Enforcement is active.

Tether froze $344 million tied to two addresses. Total freezes now exceed $4.4 billion.

The Verdict

Bitcoin has strong demand and active selling at the same time. The key level is $80,000.

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The week ends unresolved.

No talks. No timeline. Oil above $106. The Strait remains constrained.

Intel(INTC) provides a strong earnings signal.

Oil sets the limit.

Michigan sentiment is the last data point. Early readings suggest weak consumer conditions tied to fuel and food costs.

Next week is larger.

Central banks meet. Major tech reports.

This week tested the system.

Next week will define direction.