Iran and the U.S. Agreed a New Roadmap. Oil Fell Below $80. Starmer Resigned. Bitcoin Missed the Relief Rally.

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a final peace agreement, with Qatar and Pakistan helping mediate talks and maintain a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is the second framework in a month.

The first, the Islamabad Memorandum signed June 19, failed to fully stabilize the region.

Talks nearly broke down again over the weekend after Trump warned of strikes if Hezbollah attacks continued. Both sides later agreed to a communication channel aimed at preventing escalation.

Asia focused on the progress. An MSCI Asia index rose 0.6%, led by technology shares and continued AI optimism.

U.S. futures were less convinced. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures and Dow futures also moved lower. Brent crude dropped 1.7% to about $79. Markets are pricing a roadmap, not a signed peace deal.

This week brings five major tests: the Iran roadmap itself, Micron (MU) earnings Wednesday, FedEx (FDX) earnings Wednesday, first-quarter GDP Thursday, and core PCE Thursday.

The Signal

Asia bought the roadmap. U.S. futures did not. The gap between diplomacy and actual oil flows remains the week's key question.

Most people think it's about search. It's not. It's about data.

Google collects 20X more of it than Apple — fueling an ad revenue engine that generates $250 billion annually. In the AI era, that data is more valuable than ever.

That's why investors are watching Mode Mobile.

While Big Tech profits from your clicks, searches, and behavior — Mode built a platform that lets users participate in the value they create. Its EarnOS platform rewards everyday smartphone activity and has already reached:

As AI makes user data increasingly valuable, Mode's opportunity keeps growing — and they've already locked in their Nasdaq ticker $MODE.

Pre-IPO shares are still available at just $0.52, with up to 20% bonus shares.

Get all the details here

Disclaimer:  Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.

An explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas facility inside Ras Laffan Industrial City injured 54 people and left 18 missing during a plant restart.

The immediate export impact remains unclear.

The broader context is not.

Iranian strikes in March already knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, equal to about 12.8 million tonnes per year. Repairs are expected to take three to five years.

At the same time, the new Iran framework promises shipping access through Hormuz while Tehran continues threatening closures.

That contradiction matters.

The roadmap says ships can move. Iran still says the waterway can close.

Brent is below $80 because markets are pricing diplomacy. The physical system is still dealing with damaged infrastructure, disrupted shipping, and one of the world's largest LNG hubs operating under pressure.

Energy Signal

The market is pricing the roadmap. The energy system is still pricing the damage.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will resign, with a successor expected before Parliament returns in September. The favorite is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

Markets were largely unmoved.

Sterling held near $1.32. The 10-year gilt yield stayed near 4.85%. The FTSE was slightly lower. Investors were already prepared for the transition. The bigger story remains the Fed.

Markets continue digesting Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman.

Nine of 18 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike next year. The median year-end rate projection moved to 3.8% from 3.4%. Treasury yields remain elevated. The 10-year sits near 4.47%.

Thursday brings the real test.

Core PCE and the final first-quarter GDP reading arrive together. The recent PPI data pointed toward a firm inflation reading. A hot number would strengthen the Fed's new hawkish posture.

Macro Signal

Britain changed prime ministers. Markets barely noticed. Core PCE on Thursday matters far more.

It could single-handedly reshape the global order… dramatically increase U.S. power…  and trigger a massive American market boom the likes of which we haven’t seen in 75 years.

Get the details here now.

Wall Street is treating the report as a direct test of AI demand after several semiconductor names ran sharply higher this year.

The challenge is expectations.

Micron has nearly tripled this year and crossed a $1 trillion valuation. Last quarter's strong results still triggered selling. The setup looks similar to Broadcom earlier this month. Strong numbers may not be enough.

FedEx reports the same day and offers a read on the real economy.

SpaceX (SPCX) continues cooling after its IPO surge.

Shares traded near $185 premarket, well below the June 16 peak of $225.64 but still far above the $135 IPO price. The company also received investment-grade credit ratings Friday despite losing $4.9 billion during 2025.

Elsewhere, deal activity remains strong.

MDA Space agreed to buy Blue Canyon Technologies for $874 million, while Marvell (MRVL) prepares to join the S&P 500.

Capital Signal

The AI capital cycle remains active. The valuation test arrives Wednesday with Micron.

Bitcoin traded near $64,000 Monday, down 2.2% on the week despite stronger Asian equities and lower oil prices.

That is unusual.

For months, bitcoin moved with every Iran headline. This time, the peace roadmap lifted risk assets while bitcoin barely moved.

The reason is flows.

Galaxy Research estimates spot bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.35 billion of outflows over the past 30 days. The outflow streak has now reached six weeks. That institutional bid carried bitcoin through much of 2025. It is now working in reverse.

The rest of crypto looks healthier.

Solana is up 3.7% over the week. Tron has gained 2.2%. Ether remains near $1,733. The potential catalyst remains Strategy (MSTR). STRC preferred shares have recovered toward $90 after their recent collapse, and Michael Saylor continues signaling another bitcoin purchase could be coming.

Signals are not purchases.

Markets want actual buying.

The Verdict

Oil rallied on diplomacy. Asian equities rallied on diplomacy. Bitcoin stayed flat. ETF outflows remain the dominant force in crypto.

We’ve found The Next Elon Musk… and what we believe to be the next Tesla.

It’s already racked up $26 billion in government contracts.

Peter Thiel just bet $1 Billion on it.

And you can get exposure — pre-IPO — through a 4-letter ticker symbol revealed in this free briefing.

Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.

The market is becoming more selective.

It bought the Iran roadmap. It ignored the UK leadership change. It refused to follow bitcoin into the relief trade.

The common thread is confidence. Investors are rewarding outcomes, not announcements.

The roadmap creates a path toward peace. It does not reopen Hormuz overnight. Qatar's LNG system remains damaged. Core PCE has not arrived. Micron has not reported. The market is treating all of these stories the same way.

Show me the result.

If peace is truly returning to the Middle East, why is the asset that spent months trading every headline refusing to move?