Iran Hit Kuwait. Oil Hit $98. Bitcoin Hit $65,000.

Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain overnight. A drone strike hit Kuwait's airport, killing one person and halting air traffic. The U.S. shot down missiles and drones and struck targets on Qeshm Island. Central Command said the ceasefire is still "ongoing."

The S&P 500 rose for a ninth straight session Tuesday. A tenth would mark the longest streak since 1995. Futures point lower Wednesday.

Brent rose toward $98. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.48%. Rate hike odds hit 85%, up from 60% last week.

SpaceX set its IPO at $135 per share ahead of Thursday's roadshow. Marvell (MRVL) surged 13% premarket after Tuesday's 32% gain. ADP payrolls land at 8:15 a.m. Broadcom (AVGO) reports after the close.

The Signal The war surged overnight. Oil is near $100. The market's nine-session streak faces its hardest test.

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The ceasefire is still in place. The fighting is the worst since it began.

The U.S. disabled an oil tanker near Iran's Kharg Island. Iran fired drones at ships in the Gulf. The U.S. shot them down and struck ground sites on Qeshm. Iran then fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's airport was hit at dawn.

Brent rose toward $98. WTI climbed above $95. The OECD warned that if the war drags into 2027, global growth could fall to 1.8%. The base case assumes energy output starts to recover this month. That case got harder to justify overnight.

Oil is now the main driver of Treasury yields. The market is pricing inflation risk, not growth risk. May CPI is forecast at 4.2% next week.

Energy Signal The ceasefire holds in name. The fighting builds in fact. Oil near $100 entering summer is the inflation signal the Fed cannot ignore.

Rate hike odds are at 85% by year-end. A week ago they were at 60%.

Tuesday's JOLTS report showed April openings at a two-year high. The labor market is not slowing fast enough for the Fed to hold. ADP payrolls today and nonfarm payrolls Friday will test that picture.

Warsh made his first two hires at the Fed. One is Paul Winfree, who wrote the Fed chapter in Project 2025. His proposals included ending the dual mandate. Warsh said publicly he supports both sides. The hires signal direction.

New tariffs arrived Wednesday. The U.S. proposed at least 10% levies on the EU, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and the U.K. A 12.5% rate targets China, Japan, India, and South Korea. The tariffs land as markets already absorb oil-driven inflation.

Macro Signal Rate hike odds at 85%. New tariffs proposed. Warsh hired a Project 2025 author. June 17 is no longer a quiet meeting.

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The tech sector now holds more than 39% of the index. That is above the 35% reached at the March 2000 peak. The gap: tech earns a quarter of S&P net income, twice its dot-com share. The rally has support. It has no room for error.

SpaceX set its IPO at $135 per share. The fixed price before the roadshow is the signal. Musk is not bargaining. The target is $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion value. Morningstar placed fair value at $780 billion — 48% below. The gap is where the debate lives.

Palo Alto (PANW) beat earnings and raised guidance. Anthropic's Mythos launch drove over 1,200 client inquiries and 800 meetings in six weeks. AI is making the threat that AI security firms sell against. That demand surge is the clearest signal yet that AI has crossed from productivity tool to security threat, and enterprises are paying to close the gap.

AI spending now moves yields. Tech firms raised $250 billion in debt this year. AI bond sales make up 15% of total Treasury supply. The buildout is no longer just an equity story.

Capital Signal SpaceX prices Thursday. Broadcom reports tonight. Tech is 39% of the S&P. The AI cycle now moves bonds.

Bitcoin is at $67,000. The fear gauge just posted its biggest spike since February 5.

BVIV, bitcoin's implied volatility index, surged nearly 20% Tuesday. For two months, bitcoin sold off with almost no fear. That changed. Traders are buying downside hedges hard. Put-call skew climbed to nearly 20%.

ETF outflows hit 12 straight sessions with $519 million leaving Tuesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs extended to 16 days. Over $1.7 billion in leveraged futures were wiped out in 24 hours. Open interest holds above 800,000 BTC as spot falls. New shorts, not new demand.

Deribit shows $1.2 billion in open interest at the $60,000 strike and $600 million at $50,000. Three weeks ago those were not real targets. They are now.

Coinbase (COIN) will bring Ethena(ENA) to its 100 million users. ENA surged 20%. AI tokens rose 9%. The gap between AI tokens and bitcoin keeps widening.

The Verdict The fear gauge posted its biggest spike since February. ETF outflows hit 12 sessions. Traders buy $50,000 puts. The rotation from crypto to AI IPOs now has a name: the liquidity vacuum. The bid that held all year is gone.

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Wednesday opens with three forces pressing at once.

Oil is back near $100. Rate hike odds are at 85%. Bitcoin is at $67,000 with $50,000 puts trading.

The S&P's nine-session streak is on the line. Tech is at 39% of the index. SpaceX prices Thursday. Broadcom reports tonight.

The AI trade has enough force to absorb another oil spike. It has absorbed every one this year.

Bitcoin does not have that cushion. The ETF bid is gone. The Strategy (MSTR) narrative is broken. Traders are no longer debating whether to buy the dip. They are debating how far down to hedge.

Friday's payrolls report is the last major data point before June 12.

SpaceX lists. The AI IPO era fully opens. The question is whether bitcoin has any bid left when it does.