Payrolls beat at 115,000. The S&P and Nasdaq hit records. Micron surged nearly 38% this week. U.S. jets disabled two Iranian tankers. Bitcoin held above $80,000 as crypto legislation momentum improved.

MARKET PULSE

Friday closed with markets choosing growth over another war scare.

The jobs report helped. The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, above the 55,000 estimate. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Wage growth cooled to 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually.

That is the mix markets wanted.

Stable labor. Softer wages.

The weak spots were underneath. Participation fell to 61.8%, the lowest since 2021. Broader unemployment rose to 8.2%. Part-time work for economic reasons jumped by 445,000. Information services lost another 13,000 jobs as AI restructuring continued.

The Signal

The labor market is not breaking. It is thinning. That keeps the Fed on hold and lets equities keep trading AI.

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The Fed has fewer reasons to cut.

April payrolls were strong enough to remove immediate labor stress. Inflation is still above target. March CPI was 3.3%. Services inflation remains sticky. Fed officials are now talking less about cuts and more about persistence.

Austan Goolsbee said inflation has stopped improving and could become entrenched again if expectations rise. Markets have largely priced out cuts for 2026 and are beginning to consider future hikes.

That makes Kevin Warsh’s starting point harder. A month ago, the market wanted a pivot. Now the economy is still adding jobs, oil remains near $100, and inflation has not returned to target.

Macro Signal

The jobs report did not give the Fed permission to ease. It gave the Fed permission to wait.

CAPITAL

The AI trade broadened again.

The reason is simple.

Memory is now a core AI bottleneck.

DRAM and NAND shortages are lifting prices and margins as hyperscalers race to secure hardware. Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) gained 26% this week. Intel(INTC) rose 25%. Corning(GLW) climbed about 18%.

The market is no longer treating AI as only Nvidia(NVDA).

It is rotating into CPUs, memory, storage, optical networking, packaging, and foundry capacity.

Intel(INTC) surged nearly 14% Friday after reports Apple(AAPL) is moving closer to using Intel as a second chip supplier alongside TSM. Apple(AAPL) gained 2%.

That would validate Intel’s foundry turnaround and reduce Apple’s dependence on one advanced supplier.

Capital Signal

The next AI trade is not just GPUs. It is the full supply chain around them.

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ENERGY

The ceasefire is still technically alive. The blockade is still active.

The U.S. military struck two empty Iranian-flagged tankers in the Gulf of Oman to stop them from entering Iranian ports. Fighter jets disabled the vessels by firing precision munitions into their smokestacks.

That came one day after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait. Trump called it a “love tap” and said the ceasefire remains in place.

Oil jumped on the headlines, then faded. Brent briefly rose about 3% before settling near $101.29. WTI closed around $95.42. Both still posted weekly declines of more than 6%.

The market is still betting talks survive.

But the physical system remains stressed. The Strait normally handles about 20% of global oil trade. Iran’s closure and the U.S. blockade continue to distort flows.

Energy Signal

Oil is trading hope, not normal supply. Every escalation is being faded until Tehran answers the framework.

CRYPTO PULSE

Bitcoin held the line.

Bitcoin(BTC) stayed above $80,000 while equities rallied and altcoins caught a bid. The level is now the market’s psychological floor.

Coinbase(COIN) rebounded sharply from intraday lows as traders priced stronger regulatory momentum and renewed risk appetite. Higher-beta tokens including ICP, NEAR, and UNI outperformed, a sign that capital is moving back out on the risk curve.

But the rally is not clean.

Bitcoin’s 20% rally since early April still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed bull breakout. Holders realized about 14,600 BTC in profits on May 4, the largest daily profit-taking since December 2025. Short-term holders have been selling at gains since mid-April.

That is supply.

The offset is regulation.

Momentum around the crypto market structure bill improved after lawmakers reached a compromise on stablecoin rewards. The deal bans interest-like yield for simply holding stablecoins but allows transaction-based rewards.

Policy analysts now put passage odds near 60%, up from 20% to 30% earlier this year. Senate Banking talks could resume next week.

Ethics language remains the obstacle, especially around Trump-linked crypto ventures.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is holding $80,000. Altcoins are waking up. Profit-taking is rising. Regulation is becoming the next catalyst.

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CLOSING LENS

Friday gave markets the number they needed.

Payrolls beat. Wages cooled. Unemployment held. That keeps the soft-landing story alive without forcing the Fed to cut.

AI did the rest.

Micron Technology(MU), Intel(INTC), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), and Corning(GLW) showed the market is rotating beyond Nvidia(NVDA) into the broader infrastructure stack.

The war did not disappear.

U.S. jets disabled Iranian tankers. The Strait remains constrained. Oil is still near $100. But the market is fading each escalation until diplomacy breaks.

Bitcoin held $80,000 through all of it.

The week ended with records in equities, strength in chips, and crypto holding support.

The next test is whether Iran answers the framework before oil answers first.

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