Nvidia Reports Tomorrow. The Strike Pause Didn't Fix Oil. Bitcoin's Data Says the Dip Isn't Over.

Trump delayed Tuesday’s planned Iran strike after Gulf leaders asked him to hold off, saying negotiations still have a “very good chance” to succeed. Oil eased slightly. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.608%. The 2-year fell to 4.071%.

Markets treated it as a pause, not a solution.

The S&P 500 fell 0.07% Monday while the Nasdaq dropped 0.51%, extending losses after last week’s record highs. Tuesday futures weakened again. Nasdaq futures fell 0.76%. S&P futures dropped 0.5%.

The AI selloff is becoming more specific.

Seagate Technology(STX) fell nearly 7% after its CEO warned AI storage demand may outpace factory capacity because new facilities “would just take too long” to build. Micron Technology(MU) dropped nearly 6% in sympathy. South Korea’s Kospi lost more than 3% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix sold off sharply.

This is not a demand problem.

It is a supply constraint problem inside the AI buildout itself. Storage names are the first place supply-side failure shows up in the AI hardware chain because they sit between chip production and data center deployment.

Nvidia(NVDA) reports Wednesday after the close.

The Signal

Oil came down slightly. Yields eased slightly. Nothing structural changed. The market still needs Nvidia to hold the AI narrative together while the macro backdrop worsens underneath it.

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That remains the core reality.

Brent eased toward $110 after Trump delayed the planned strike, but oil is still more than 50% above prewar levels. September Brent futures remain above $100. December contracts are at fresh highs.

Trump simultaneously told the military to stay ready for a full-scale assault if negotiations fail. That is not deescalation. It is a delayed decision.

The G7 finance ministers met in Paris Monday and acknowledged rising concern around debt markets, oil, and inflation pressure. They produced no operational energy solution.

Meanwhile, borrowing costs keep climbing globally.

The average 10-year borrowing rate across G7 nations is now approaching 4%, up sharply since the war began in February. Treasury yields and Japanese bond yields eased overnight, but both remain close to multi-decade highs.

The inventory clock is still running.

Energy Signal

The market understands the difference between a delayed strike and an open Strait. Brent near $110 reflects a system still pricing physical shortage risk through summer.

Domestic investors are repricing inflation and rate hikes. Foreign central banks are selling Treasurys to defend currencies against the oil shock.

Both flows move yields in the same direction.

China cut Treasury holdings to $652.3 billion in March, the lowest since 2008. Japan reduced holdings by roughly $47 billion to $1.19 trillion. Total foreign Treasury holdings fell from $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion in a single month.

At the same time, U.S. debt held by the public crossed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II.

That matters because this inflation shock is arriving while the Treasury market is losing a major source of foreign demand.

Barclays warned Tuesday that positioning across equities has become fragile. U.S. equity funds have seen seven straight weeks of inflows totaling roughly $70 billion, one of the strongest stretches since 2000. Systematic funds are already near maximum long exposure.

Kevin Warsh gets sworn in as Fed chair Friday.

He inherits a market already tightening conditions before the Fed has officially acted.

Macro Signal

The bond market is not selling off for one reason anymore. Inflation pressure, debt levels, and foreign reserve liquidation are now reinforcing each other simultaneously.

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Alphabet(GOOGL) and Blackstone(BX) announced a new AI cloud venture Monday with $5 billion in equity backing and roughly $25 billion in planned compute investment. Google supplies TPU hardware and software. Blackstone controls the infrastructure side.

That is the first credible large-scale alternative to Nvidia-powered AI cloud infrastructure.

CoreWeave(CRWV) and Nebius(NBIS) both fell on the news.

At the same time, Bernstein published a note titled “Follow the Gigawatts,” arguing that bitcoin miners may become critical AI infrastructure partners because they collectively control over 27 gigawatts of future power capacity.

Power availability is becoming the new bottleneck.

Meta Platforms(META) begins layoffs Wednesday affecting roughly 10% of staff while shifting thousands of workers into AI-focused roles. Standard Chartered(STAN) announced plans to cut over 7,000 jobs by 2030 as it replaces lower-value human work with AI systems.

The AI trade is expanding beyond semiconductors.

It is now reshaping labor structures, cloud infrastructure, power markets, and capital spending simultaneously.

Nvidia(NVDA) reports tonight. FOMC minutes from Powell’s final meeting arrive at the same time.

That hour likely decides the week.

Capital Signal

Google entering the neocloud market is a structural change to the AI infrastructure landscape. Nvidia’s earnings determine whether the market treats it as competition or confirmation.

Three signals matter most.

First, ETF outflows continue accelerating. Spot bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $1.5 billion since May 7. Monday alone saw $648 million in outflows, one of the worst daily totals since January.

Second, spot and futures traders are actively selling into bids. Aggregate spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped from positive $16.9 million to negative $126.2 million. Futures CVD dropped to negative $368.5 million.

This is active selling pressure, not passive drift.

Third, downside protection is getting more expensive. BTC options skew rose sharply as traders paid up for puts over calls.

The options market is preparing for more downside volatility.

First support remains near $76,000. Below that, the next demand zone sits between $74,000 and $75,000.

The macro backdrop is not helping.

At the same time, the structural infrastructure build continues. The SEC may introduce an innovation exemption for tokenized securities as early as this week. Nasdaq already has approval for tokenized equity plans. DTCC plans limited production trades in July.

The $126 trillion equity market is slowly moving onto blockchain rails.

The Verdict

Bitcoin’s near-term structure still looks weak. ETF outflows, aggressive selling, and options positioning all point toward further downside pressure. The long-term infrastructure build around tokenized finance continues underneath it.

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Tuesday is the final setup day before the week’s biggest event.

Oil eased after the strike delay. Yields eased slightly. Bitcoin recovered marginally from Monday’s lows.

None of those moves changed the core structure.

The Strait remains blocked. Oil remains above $100. The 10-year remains above 4.6%. Rate hike probabilities remain elevated.

The market is now highly sensitive to positioning, flows, and volatility because so much capital is already crowded into the same AI trade.

Nvidia reports after the close. Powell’s final FOMC minutes arrive at the same time. SpaceX prepares its IPO prospectus. Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed Friday.

A large part of the market’s next direction gets decided in the next thirty-six hours.

Bitcoin’s data still says the correction is unfinished.

The market is waiting to see whether Nvidia gives investors a reason to ignore that warning for another week.