Nvidia Reports Wednesday. Walmart Follows Thursday. The Strait Is Still Closed.

Last week the market got the bill and paid it anyway.

CPI hit 3.8%. PPI hit 6%. Yields reached year highs. The summit ended without reopening Hormuz. Bitcoin held $80,000. The AI trade bought every dip.

That resilience was real. But it was built on assumptions that now have to hold.

This week is the confirmation test. Nvidia (NVDA) reports Wednesday after the close. Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) follow Thursday morning. FOMC minutes land Wednesday afternoon. Housing starts and jobless claims arrive Thursday. Michigan consumer sentiment closes Friday.

By the time this week ends, the market will know whether last week's rally was pricing something real or buying optimism on credit.

Five questions define the week.

Every major inflection in the AI rally this year has passed through Nvidia (NVDA). Wednesday's earnings report after the close is the most important single event of the week and possibly of the month.

Analysts expect revenue near $43 billion. The more important numbers are guidance and order commentary from CEO Jensen Huang. The market does not need a beat on the quarter. It needs confirmation that H200 and Blackwell demand is holding and that the China question, now that H200 approvals exist for ten Chinese firms, has a path to real revenue.

Nvidia's market cap crossed $5.5 trillion last week. At that size, every guidance figure moves the broader index. A strong print validates the entire AI infrastructure thesis that has been carrying equities through inflation shocks and yield spikes. A soft guide reopens the concentration risk conversation at the worst possible time.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) reports Monday and Analog Devices (ADI) reports Wednesday. Both provide early reads on AI hardware demand.

What to Watch Nvidia's Blackwell revenue and H200 China commentary are the two numbers that matter most. Everything else in tech this week is context.

Last week's jobs report said Americans are still working. This week's retail earnings will say whether they are still spending.

The lineup is the most complete consumer read of the year. Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) both report Thursday morning. TJX Companies (TJX) reports Wednesday. Burlington Stores (BURL) and Ralph Lauren (RL) follow Thursday.

Gasoline is still above $4.50 a gallon. Grocery prices rose 0.7% in April alone. Airline fares jumped 2.8% in a single month. The consumer has absorbed the shock so far by spending differently rather than spending less. Walmart and Target will show whether that behavior is holding at scale or starting to crack.

Home Depot (HD) reports Tuesday and Lowe's (LOW) reports Wednesday. Both are selling into a market where big renovation projects are being delayed as mortgage rates stay above 6.5%. Their order trends will show whether the rate shock has moved from frozen to contracting.

Thursday also brings Building Permits and Housing Starts alongside Toll Brothers (TOL) earnings Tuesday. Together they give the most complete housing picture since rates crossed 4.5%.

What to Watch Walmart same-store sales and traffic trends are the single most representative consumer data point of the week. A miss here after last week's jobs beat signals the energy shock has reached household spending in ways the monthly data has not yet captured.

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The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday afternoon. The committee that produced those minutes was operating under Powell with an 8-4 split that left the easing bias language in place by a narrow margin.

The minutes will show how close the committee came to removing the easing bias entirely and whether the hawkish dissenters were building toward a formal shift at the June 16-17 meeting. Fed Governor Waller speaks this week alongside Governor Barr. Both have been among the more data-dependent voices on the committee. Any shift in their language after last week's inflation prints moves the June math.

Markets are currently pricing more than 44% odds of a rate hike by December. The 2-year yield is sitting above the fed funds target range. The minutes will either confirm that June is a live meeting for a policy shift or provide cover for Warsh to hold through the summer while he builds his first committee consensus.

What to Watch Any internal discussion of hike scenarios or easing bias removal in the minutes is the signal that moves markets Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday delivers Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index together. Monday adds the NAHB Housing Market Index, which tracks homebuilder sentiment directly.

The housing market has been largely frozen by rates above 6.5% and prices that have not corrected to meet them. The energy shock has added cost pressure without removing any of it. Toll Brothers (TOL) reports Tuesday as the most direct read on new home demand at the premium end. Its order commentary and cancellation rates will show whether upper-income buyers are still entering the market or pulling back as yields climb.

Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading closes the week by showing whether households are still confident or beginning to feel the cumulative weight of higher energy costs, higher rates, and slower income growth.

What to Watch Housing starts below 1.3 million units alongside a weak NAHB reading confirms the rate shock has not been absorbed. It is being waited out.

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Every data release this week operates inside one assumption. That Hormuz reopens before the physical oil system reaches critical stress in early June.

JPMorgan estimates wealthy-nation crude stocks could hit operational stress levels as soon as the first week of June. U.S. diesel is on track to fall below 100 million barrels by end of May, the lowest level since 2003. The 14-point framework between the U.S. and Iran is still unsigned. The Strait is still closed. Mine clearing has not started.

SpaceX is expected to disclose its IPO prospectus this week, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion in what could be the largest public offering in history. The AI IPO cycle is accelerating into a bond market that is simultaneously raising the cost of every future dollar of AI revenue. That tension sits underneath every earnings number this week. Strong results price future growth. The bond market is raising the rate at which that future gets discounted.

Intuit (INTU), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), and Copart (CPRT) round out an earnings slate that tests software, gaming, and used vehicle markets inside the same macro frame.

What to Watch Any diplomatic movement on the Iran framework before Thursday reshuffles the inflation outlook before the week's biggest data points land together.

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Last week the market learned that inflation has breadth, the bond market will not wait for the Fed, and the AI trade can hold through almost anything.

This week it has to prove all three were right.

Nvidia reports Wednesday. Walmart and Target follow Thursday. The FOMC minutes land between them. Housing data and jobless claims arrive the same morning as the biggest retail earnings week of the year.

The Strait is still closed. The framework is still unsigned. The inventory clock is ticking toward early June.

The rally bought itself one more week. This one it has to earn.