Oil Back Above $109. Yields at a Year High. Crypto Held the Line.

Trump left Beijing Friday after two days of talks with Xi Jinping. He then told Fox News that the U.S. doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz open, citing domestic oil. Markets read that as license for the stalemate to last.

Brent jumped above $109. The 10-year yield hit 4.53%, its highest in nearly a year. The 30-year crossed 5.07%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.5%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1%.

The summit gave what analysts called managed stability without substance. Both sides said Iran must not have a nuclear weapon and Hormuz must stay open. China agreed to buy U.S. oil. Boeing got a 200-jet order, well below the 500 expected.

The Kospi fell more than 6%. The Nikkei dropped 2%.

The S&P 500 is on pace for its seventh straight weekly gain. The Dow retook 50,000 Thursday. Both now look fragile as yields near levels last seen before the AI rally began.

The Signal

Trump said the U.S. doesn't need Hormuz open. Oil heard that as time. The bond market heard it as inflation. Stocks are about to hear both.

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Trump and Xi agreed the Strait must stay open. But Trump said the U.S. doesn't need it, citing home output. Iran has not moved.

The inventory picture is now critical. Global oil stocks fell 250 million barrels in March and April. JPMorgan says rich-nation stores could hit stress levels next month and floor levels by September if the Strait stays closed. U.S. diesel stocks are set to fall below 100 million barrels by end of May, the lowest since 2003.

The UAE is building a pipeline to bypass Hormuz, but it will not be ready until 2027. Future options, not current barrels.

Brent is up more than 7% on the week, its largest weekly gain since the war began.

Energy Signal

The U.S. and China both want Hormuz open. Iran decides if it opens. That gap has not closed. The inventory clock is now the market's top risk.

The 2-year yield hit 4.06%, now sitting above the Fed's 3.5% to 3.75% target range. That is the bond market saying the current rate is too low. The 10-year hit 4.53%. The 30-year crossed 5.07%.

Money markets now price more than 44% odds of a Fed rate hike by December. A week ago that was 22.5%. At the start of the year it was near zero.

Fed Governor Miran resigned Thursday. He had been the panel's most steady voice for cuts, voting against every hold this year. His exit removes the clearest dove at the moment prices are rising fastest.

Powell's term ends Friday. Warsh starts Monday. He takes over a steepening curve, rising prices, and a $6.7 trillion balance sheet he wants to shrink.

Macro Signal

Warsh wanted the option to cut on day one. The bond market took that option before he sat down. His first test is not the next move. It is keeping the long end from running.

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Cerebras(CBRS) closed Thursday at $311, up 68% from its $185 IPO price, after raising $5.55 billion in the largest U.S. tech debut since Uber. Applied Materials(AMAT) beat earnings and raised its full-year guide on AI chip demand.

SpaceX plans to file its IPO next week. The target: a $1.75 trillion value and a raise up to $75 billion. That would be the largest IPO ever. OpenAI and Anthropic are also in the pipeline.

Figma beat for the fourth straight quarter since going public. More than 75% of its paying firms now use AI credits. That is the clearest sign yet that AI software can charge, not just grow.

But the bond market is raising the discount rate on every future dollar of AI revenue. The five largest cloud firms will spend $800 billion on AI this year. Amazon(AMZN), Meta(META), and Microsoft(MSFT) may each post negative free cash flow.

Capital Signal

Cerebras proved the AI IPO market is open. The bond market is raising the cost of every bet placed inside it. Both things are true at once.

Bitcoin rose 2.3% in Asian hours Friday to $81,055 as the Clarity Act vote landed. XRP led with a 4.5% gain and a 7.6% weekly advance. DOGE added 3%. Solana climbed 2%. The gains came against Nasdaq futures down 1.5% and the Kospi off more than 6%.

Crypto split from the risk selloff on the Clarity Act catalyst.

The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9. The path ahead needs a merger with the Agriculture panel's version, then 60 votes on the floor. The ethics rule on officials profiting from crypto is still missing.

The yield headwind for bitcoin is real. As the 2-year sits above the Fed's target band, capital choosing between bitcoin and a risk-free 4% yield faces a harder case. Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average at $82,000.

AI-driven crypto hacks hit a new level in April. Drift Protocol lost $280 million and Kelp DAO lost nearly $300 million. TRM Labs tied both to North Korean groups using AI tools.

The Verdict

Bitcoin held $80,000 through three inflation shocks, a new Fed chair, and yields at year highs. The Clarity Act cleared its first gate. Yields are the headwind. Regulation is the tailwind. The question is which moves faster.

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The week ends with the AI rally and the inflation regime hitting the same wall.

Cerebras opened at $350. The Clarity Act passed committee. The S&P hit 7,500. The Dow retook 50,000.

Then Trump said the U.S. doesn't need Hormuz open. Oil jumped. Yields spiked. Futures fell.

The bond market is telling the new Fed chair that the current rate is too low. The 2-year above the target band is not a quiet signal.

Crypto held. Bitcoin finished above $80,000. The Clarity Act is moving. The macro pressure and the progress are both real.

Powell's term ends Friday. Warsh starts Monday. The bond market already gave him his brief.