Brent posted its worst month since 2020. Dell surged 33% after AI server revenue jumped 757%. SpaceX won a $4.16B defense contract while Blue Origin’s New Glenn exploded. Bitcoin stayed near $73K as banks moved against the CLARITY Act.
MARKET PULSE
The market ended May by pricing a deal before the deal exists.
Oil did the opposite.
Brent fell 1.7% Friday and finished the month down 19%, its worst month since March 2020. WTI fell nearly 17% in May and settled at $87.36.
Investors now believe Washington and Tehran are close to a 60-day framework that would extend the ceasefire, reopen Hormuz, and begin talks around Iran’s nuclear program.
But approval has not arrived. Trump still has to sign off. Iran still has to accept terms on uranium, mines, tolls, and unrestricted shipping.
Stocks are pricing relief. Oil is pricing reopening. Bonds are waiting for proof.
The Signal
The market is no longer pricing war panic. It is pricing a deal that has not been signed.
Premier Feature
BREAKING UPDATE: Elon Musk Just Filed the SpaceX IPO
It was supposed to be confidential...
But it's become the worst-kept secret on Wall Street.
Right now, 21 banks are lining up to underwrite the $1.75 TRILLION deal - JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.
June is the target date for launch...
That gives everyday Americans a small window to get positioned before Wall Street insiders gobble up all the profits.
ENERGY
Oil’s May collapse was not about current supply.
It was about expected supply.
Brent at $92.05 is the market saying Hormuz eventually reopens. It is not saying Hormuz is open now.
Bessent said the U.S. and Iran have the “makings of a deal.” The framework would reopen the Strait, extend the ceasefire for 60 days, and tie economic relief to verification.
But Washington also tightened sanctions. Treasury targeted eight vessels and more than 15 companies tied to Iran’s military oil network.
Iran still has another buffer. It exports roughly 1.4 million barrels per day to China through a shadow fleet. That trade generated about $31 billion last year and represented nearly half of government revenue.
So Iran is pressured, but not cut off.
The U.S. wants shipping normalization before inflation spreads further. Iran wants relief without looking like it surrendered.
Energy Signal
Oil has priced a path out. The political system still has to build it.
MACRO
The next macro test is labor.
Next week brings ISM manufacturing Monday, JOLTS Tuesday, ADP and ISM services Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and payrolls Friday.
The Fed debate has changed.
Markets are no longer asking when cuts arrive. They are asking whether the next move could still be a hike.
A strong payrolls print keeps Warsh trapped: inflation above target, oil still elevated, and a labor market not weak enough to justify easing. A weak print raises the risk that energy is slowing growth while prices stay sticky.
Macro Signal
If oil keeps falling, the Fed gets time. If jobs stay strong, it does not get cuts.
From Our Partners
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
CAPITAL
Dell (DELL) proved the AI infrastructure trade is not slowing.
This was not a software story.
It was a buildout story.
Corporations are still buying servers, GPUs, storage, and data center hardware at a pace that keeps surprising analysts. Dell confirmed the same message Nvidia gave earlier: AI demand remains larger than supply.
Space moved in the same direction, but with a sharper split.
SpaceX won a $4.16 billion Space Force contract tied to the Golden Dome missile defense system. Earlier this week, it also won a $2.29 billion secure military communications contract. The company is becoming core U.S. defense infrastructure as it moves toward a potential IPO above $1.75 trillion.
Blue Origin had the opposite week. Its New Glenn rocket exploded during a hot-fire test in Florida while preparing to deploy 48 Amazon Leo satellites. No one was injured, but the setback widens the gap between Bezos and Musk.
Capital Signal
AI and space are moving toward infrastructure status. The market is rewarding scale and punishing execution risk.
CRYPTO PULSE
Crypto did not join the record high party.
Bitcoin stayed near $73,000 even as stocks hit records, oil fell, and war fears eased. The next catalyst is regulation.
Coinbase and Kalshi are launching the first CFTC-regulated perpetual crypto futures for U.S. investors. Perps handled $61.7 trillion in global volume in 2025. Bringing that product onshore is a major step toward regulated market structure.
Nomura-backed Laser Digital also received conditional approval for a U.S. national trust bank charter. More than 15 crypto-related firms have reportedly applied for OCC charters since 2025.
The political fight is intensifying.
Jamie Dimon blasted the CLARITY Act and said JPMorgan would fight the bill as written. His concern is stablecoin rewards. Banks fear crypto firms could offer deposit-like incentives without bank-level rules.
The U.S. also said it has seized nearly $1 billion in Iranian crypto tied to sanctions evasion. The government reportedly holds 328,372 BTC worth more than $24 billion.
The Verdict
Crypto infrastructure is moving forward. Crypto politics is getting harder. Price is waiting for both to resolve.
From Our Partners
The SpaceX S-1 Dropped.
277 pages. Every number now public.
$18.7 billion in revenue. A $75 billion raise. June 12 listing confirmed — the largest IPO in history.
And you still won't get an allocation. Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and 19 other banks already carved it up.
But buried in that S-1 is a detail that changes everything.
One small, publicly traded company is so critical to Musk's infrastructure that SpaceX can't scale without it.
The S-1 just confirmed it. The clock just started.
22 days until SPCE hits Nasdaq — and this stock re-prices.
CLOSING LENS
May ended with a split market.
Oil had its worst month since 2020 because traders believe a Hormuz deal is coming. Stocks hit records because AI earnings keep proving the buildout is real. Bitcoin stalled because crypto needs regulatory clarity and fresh flows, not just lower oil.
The market is not calm because risk disappeared. It is calm because investors believe the worst energy outcome has been avoided.
Next week tests that belief.
Labor data will tell the Fed whether it has room to wait. ISM will show whether the energy shock is hitting business activity. Oil inventories will show whether the physical market is healing or just pricing hope.
Dell answered the AI question for now.
Iran has not answered the energy question yet.
Bitcoin is waiting for Washington.
The rally is intact. The assumptions behind it are now the risk.
