Peace Crashed Oil. SpaceX Hit $2.5 Trillion. The Fed Takes the Baton.

Markets liked it.

The Dow rose 469 points to a record 51,671. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%. The Nasdaq jumped 3.07%, its best day since March 31.

The catalyst was simple.

The U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A formal signing is expected Friday in Switzerland. According to administration officials, the agreement has already been signed electronically.

Oil collapsed.

WTI fell nearly 5% to $80.75. Brent moved toward $83. Airlines, cruise operators, automakers, and other fuel-sensitive sectors rallied. Energy stocks lagged.

SpaceX (SPCX) added fuel to the move.

The stock gained nearly 20% after Friday's historic debut, extending one of the strongest large-cap IPO launches ever.

Bitcoin climbed above $66,000.

The market spent the last three months pricing war. It is now pricing peace.

The Signal

The war premium is gone. The next market driver arrives Tuesday morning when Kevin Warsh begins his first Fed meeting.

Almost no media coverage. Almost no public awareness.

But what they confirmed is one of the largest U.S. territorial expansions in modern history — a resource claim worth an estimated $500 trillion.

Thanks to sovereign U.S. law, this isn't just a national asset. It's an "American birthright."

Every citizen now has the legal right to stake a claim. Very few even know it exists.

The first profits will go to those who move early.

Get the full briefing while the "claim" window remains open

— Dylan Jovine, CEO & Founder, Behind the Markets

WTI fell toward $80 while Brent traded near three-month lows after the peace framework raised expectations that Hormuz will reopen and Iranian exports will normalize.

Markets moved quickly.

Physical supply will not.

Jet fuel, shipping routes, inventories, and refinery operations all need time to recover after months of disruption.

That is why some analysts remain cautious.

The airline industry still faces roughly $98 billion in additional fuel costs this year despite Monday's drop in crude. The fuel shock does not disappear overnight simply because diplomacy arrives.

The inventory picture remains tight.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 340.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. The reserve declined another 8.9 million barrels last week as the government continued lending crude to stabilize markets.

Cushing inventories remain near operational lows.

The war ended.

The inventory deficit did not.

Energy Signal

Oil priced peace immediately. Physical markets will take much longer to normalize.

The Fed begins its June meeting Tuesday and announces its decision Wednesday.

No rate change is expected.

The real question is Kevin Warsh.

This is his first meeting as chairman, and markets still price at least one rate hike before year-end despite the collapse in oil.

The peace deal helps.

Lower energy prices should reduce inflation pressure over time. That matters after May CPI reached 4.2%, the highest level in three years.

But the labor market remains strong.

Payrolls increased by 172,000 last month, more than double expectations. Wage pressure tied to AI infrastructure construction remains a growing concern.

The market wants lower oil prices to solve the inflation problem.

The Fed may argue that labor demand remains the bigger issue.

Wednesday is less about rates and more about how Warsh frames the second half of 2026.

Macro Signal

The oil shock is fading. The labor story is not. The Fed now decides which one matters more.

Forget EVERYTHING you’ve heard about the Iran war.

Especially the reasons why we’re bombing the country.

Because THIS is the real reason.

The stock gained another 20% Monday after rising 19% in its debut session Friday.

Shares closed near $192.50, up more than 40% from the $135 IPO price.

Trading volume remained enormous. More than 244 million shares changed hands Monday after roughly 500 million traded Friday.

The move pushed SpaceX well above a $2 trillion valuation.

Elon Musk added to the excitement when he suggested SpaceX could generate roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

Not everyone is convinced.

CFRA initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 target. Morningstar estimated fair value near $63.

The debate is no longer whether SpaceX is important.

The debate is how much investors should pay for that importance.

Long-time investor Ron Baron is firmly on one side.

Baron purchased another $1 billion during the IPO, increasing his SpaceX position to roughly $25 billion. He believes the company could eventually be worth between $20 trillion and $40 trillion over the next decade.

Meanwhile, the AI financing cycle continues.

Nvidia (NVDA) is preparing its first major debt offering since the AI boom began. The company is expected to raise at least $20 billion and potentially closer to $25 billion.

Nvidia (NVDA) generated $216 billion in revenue during fiscal 2026, yet still wants more capital to support expansion.

That is the same story Oracle (ORCL), Amazon, and Alphabet (GOOG) have been telling.

AI demand remains enormous.

Capital Signal

SpaceX proved investors will fund trillion-dollar AI stories. Nvidia's bond sale shows the infrastructure buildout is still accelerating.

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BTC traded near $66,400 Monday evening, up more than 1% on the day and more than 4% above last week's lows.

The improvement came alongside rising equities, falling oil, and a broader return of risk appetite.

But crypto's internal story remains mixed.

Strategy (MSTR) purchased another 1,587 bitcoin for roughly $100 million, increasing total holdings to 846,842 BTC.

The company now controls about 4% of Bitcoin's eventual supply.

More importantly, Strategy increased its cash reserve to $1.1 billion while still buying bitcoin.

That addresses one of Wall Street's biggest concerns following the company's earlier sale.

The mining sector received relief as well.

Bitcoin mining difficulty fell 10.1%, the second-largest downward adjustment of 2026 and the lowest level since July 2025.

The reduction improves economics for remaining miners after June's sharp selloff.

Still, demand remains the larger issue.

Bitcoin ETF flows remain weak despite improving prices. The structural institutional bid that drove the market through much of 2025 has not fully returned.

The Verdict

Bitcoin benefited from peace and risk appetite. Strategy keeps buying. The ETF bid remains the missing piece.

The market spent months trading war, oil, and Hormuz.

That story is ending.

Oil collapsed. Stocks rallied. SpaceX extended its breakout. Bitcoin recovered.

The next story starts tomorrow.

Kevin Warsh takes control of his first Fed meeting with inflation still above target, payroll growth still strong, and oil moving sharply lower.

The peace deal solved one problem.

The Fed still has to decide whether the inflation problem survives without it.

Wednesday is the next major test.

The market has moved on from the war.

Now it needs to hear from the Fed.