The S&P and Nasdaq hit records again as Snowflake (SNOW) surged 36%. PCE matched 3.8%. A tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension lifted equities, but fresh strikes kept oil volatile. Bitcoin traded near $73,466 after another ETF outflow shock.
MARKET PULSE
Thursday closed with records and contradiction.
The reason was not clean macro relief. It was selective optimism.
Markets rallied after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal still needs Trump’s approval. Iranian officials also said the memorandum is not finalized.
That distinction matters.
Earlier in the session, U.S. forces struck Iranian drone infrastructure near Bandar Abbas. Iran claimed it hit a U.S. air base in response. Kuwait activated air defenses after reporting incoming missile and drone threats.
Oil swung with every headline. Brent initially jumped on escalation, then settled down 0.6% at $93.71. WTI edged up 0.3% to $88.90.
The inflation data gave equities room. PCE rose 0.4% in April and 3.8% year over year. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. The monthly core print was softer than expected, but the annual numbers remain too high for a Fed that wants 2%.
The Signal
Markets bought the ceasefire headline. Oil traded the unfinished details. Bitcoin traded the liquidity stress.
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ENERGY
The Strait remains the market’s pressure point.
A tentative deal would allow unrestricted commercial traffic through Hormuz while talks continue on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and U.S. military presence. If approved, it would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since the war began on Feb. 28.
But the operating environment is still unstable.
U.S. Central Command said it shot down five Iranian drones and struck a drone control station near Bandar Abbas. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned any future attacks would trigger a more decisive response. Kuwaiti forces also intercepted a ballistic missile.
That is why oil did not collapse even after ceasefire reports.
Shipping through Hormuz remains down 88% since the war began. The U.S. has warned Oman not to participate in any Iranian tolling or joint-control system. Treasury also sanctioned Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the agency regulating vessel traffic and collecting fees.
That sanction matters. It means any company cooperating with Iran’s shipping authority could face sanctions risk. So even if the Strait technically reopens, insurers, shippers, and banks may not return immediately.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels last week, the sixth straight weekly decline. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also fell.
Energy Signal
A ceasefire extension can lower the panic premium. It cannot instantly rebuild shipping confidence.
MACRO
The PCE report was better monthly and still bad annually.
That gives the Fed some relief, but not enough to change the path.
Goods prices rose 0.7%, driven by a 5.5% jump in gasoline. Services rose 0.3%. Housing and utilities rose 0.6%. Food services and accommodations rose 0.5%. Housing posted its largest monthly increase since at least January 2025.
The economy also looked weaker underneath. First-quarter GDP was revised down to 1.6% from 2%. Weekly jobless claims rose to 215,000. Consumer spending still rose 0.5%, but personal income was flat and the savings rate fell to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2022.
That is the consumer story in one number. Spending is holding because savings are being drawn down.
Gold told the same rates story. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,428.69 after touching its lowest level since late March. The monthly PCE print helped gold trim losses, but higher-for-longer rates still pressure non-yielding assets.
Macro Signal
Inflation cooled at the margin. It did not cool enough to restore the rate-cut story.
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CAPITAL
AI leadership stayed intact.
Snowflake (SNOW) surged 36% after stronger earnings, better guidance, and its $6 billion five-year AI infrastructure deal with Amazon Web Services. The move eased fears that AI would weaken demand for enterprise software. Instead, Snowflake (SNOW) showed that software firms can still win if they sit close enough to the AI data layer.
Okta jumped 14% after beating estimates. Revenue rose 11% to $765 million. Adjusted EPS came in at 91 cents versus 85 cents expected. CEO Todd McKinnon tied demand to agentic AI and the need for identity security around autonomous systems.
That is becoming the new software test. AI cannot just be a slide. It has to create real demand.
Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI in the private AI race. The company is expected to reach $50 billion in annualized revenue next month, helped by Claude enterprise demand and coding products.
The AI story is no longer only chips. It is models, identity, cloud capacity, security, and software infrastructure.
Defense also joined the rally in Europe. Ukraine approved a €90 billion EU-backed loan package, lifting Saab 7.4%, Rheinmetall 4.2%, Renk 5.4%, and Exail 13.2%.
Capital Signal
The market is still rewarding infrastructure. AI infrastructure. Defense infrastructure. Security infrastructure. Anything tied to durable demand is getting capital.
CRYPTO PULSE
Bitcoin stayed weak while stocks hit records.
BTC traded near $73,466, down 1.14% on the day. It briefly fell below $73,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $733.4 million in net outflows Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal since Jan. 29.
BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT lost $527.8 million. GBTC lost $104.8 million. Fidelity, Bitwise, and Ark 21Shares also saw redemptions. Only Morgan Stanley’s MSBT added money, with $4.3 million in inflows.
That is not retail panic. It looks like institutional deleveraging.
The CFTC’s attempt to vacate its $5 million Gemini penalty showed the Trump administration’s lighter crypto enforcement stance. Former CFTC Chair Tim Massad called the move highly unusual. Gemini already paid the penalty, and the filing did not clarify whether it would receive a refund.
Europe is moving the other way. France warned crypto firms without MiCA licenses by June 30 could face blacklisting or prosecution. UniCredit’s Elena Carletti warned Europe may be less able than the U.S. to contain crypto-bank shocks because stablecoin reserves are becoming tied to traditional banks without a unified crisis tool.
The Verdict
Crypto regulation is getting friendlier in the U.S. and stricter in Europe. Bitcoin price action still follows liquidity, not policy.
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CLOSING LENS
Thursday’s market had one clear message.
Equities can still rally through geopolitical noise if inflation cools at the margin and AI keeps delivering.
But the risks did not disappear.
The U.S. and Iran are still trading strikes. Hormuz traffic remains far below normal. PCE is still 3.8%. Core PCE is still 3.3%. GDP was revised lower. Consumers are spending from savings. Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating.
The market is not pricing peace.
It is pricing enough progress to keep the AI trade alive.
That is a narrower bet than it looks.
