Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran and said a Hormuz deal could be signed this weekend, sending Brent to a two-month low near $88. Wall Street rallied Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 2.54%. Adobe beat and raised but fell after hours on a CFO exit. Bitcoin firmed near $63,500. SpaceX begins trading.
MARKET PULSE
The week that threatened a wider war ends with a peace trade and the largest IPO in history.
Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran Thursday and said talks had reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership. He suggested a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as soon as this weekend.
Markets responded immediately.
The Dow gained 1.86%. The S&P 500 rose 1.75%. The Nasdaq jumped 2.54%.
Asia followed overnight. South Korea's Kospi surged 7.8%. Japan's Nikkei gained 3.5%. India's Sensex added more than 900 points.
Now the focus shifts to SpaceX.
The company begins trading this morning after raising $75 billion at $135 per share and a $1.77 trillion valuation.
Futures point modestly higher. Dow futures rose 0.6%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%. The Nasdaq was little changed after Thursday's rally. The VIX fell to 18.7. Brent slipped toward $88. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.5%.
One number stands out.
Gold jumped 3% to a record near $4,240.
Investors are buying risk assets and hedges at the same time.
The Signal
The war premium is fading. SpaceX opens into a relief rally. The setup is bullish. The company has never traded before.
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ENERGY
The strikes were canceled. Oil fell with them.
That is the third major de-escalation rally in oil this year.
The surface says the war premium is disappearing.
The structure says the disruption remains.
Iran's Fars agency said no agreement has been approved. The Strait of Hormuz remains impaired. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a second straight month to 970,000 barrels per day.
ING argues the real deadline is late July.
If flows do not normalize by then, depleted inventories and summer demand could push oil back toward $120 to $130 regardless of diplomatic headlines.
That remains the key distinction.
A signed agreement does not refill inventories. It only starts the process.
Energy Signal
Oil is trading at a two-month low on a deal that does not yet exist. The premium can disappear quickly. The physical deficit cannot.
MACRO
The inflation story is becoming harder to ignore.
May CPI rose 4.2% year over year. Thursday's producer price report came in hotter than expected as well.
Two inflation reports in a row are moving in the wrong direction.
The ECB responded Thursday.
Europe is tightening into weakness.
The Fed still appears likely to hold rates on June 17 because core CPI remains relatively contained at 2.9%.
But markets are becoming less convinced that inflation is temporary.
The two-year Treasury yield remains near 4.15%, well above the Fed's policy range. That gap continues to signal investors believe policy may not be restrictive enough.
The next important data point arrives this morning.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected near record lows as consumers continue to absorb higher fuel prices.
Macro Signal
Headline inflation is rising. Producer prices are rising. The Fed is still expected to hold. Consumer sentiment will show whether households are starting to crack.
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CAPITAL
Today belongs to SpaceX.
The company opens at $135 per share and a $1.77 trillion valuation.
Wall Street has already set high expectations.
Fifteen trading days after listing, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100. Analysts estimate that could trigger $22 billion to $27 billion of passive buying during early July.
The opportunity is obvious.
So is the bar.
Adobe showed investors exactly how high that bar has become.
Adobe (ADBE) beat expectations Thursday night. Revenue rose 13% to $6.62 billion. AI-first recurring revenue exceeded $500 million. The company raised guidance.
The stock still fell roughly 5% after hours.
The catalyst was a surprise CFO departure combined with ongoing concerns that AI could eventually pressure parts of Adobe's business.
Oracle (ORCL) delivered the same lesson earlier this week.
Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 93%. Remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion. Yet investors focused on $55.7 billion in capital spending and negative free cash flow.
Strong numbers are no longer enough.
Investors want growth, profits, and clear returns on AI spending.
SpaceX opens into that environment.
Capital Signal
SpaceX has $25 billion of future index buying behind it. Adobe and Oracle showed how demanding investors have become. Today's opening trade will set the tone for every major AI IPO behind it.
CRYPTO PULSE
Bitcoin is finally moving with risk assets again.
Standard Chartered made its strongest call yet.
The bank said the cycle low is likely in place near $59,000 and maintained its $100,000 year-end target.
Its thesis centers on the same two drivers moving markets today.
A U.S.-Iran agreement would reduce oil pressure and lower rate fears. SpaceX's listing could also remove a major source of liquidity pressure as investors finish funding IPO allocations.
Strategy (MSTR) helped sentiment this week.
The company bought 1,550 bitcoin for roughly $101 million, raising total holdings above 845,000 coins. The purchase reversed concerns created by its earlier 32-bitcoin sale.
The infrastructure story also keeps growing.
ETF flows remain weak.
Outflows are slowing but have not fully reversed.
The Verdict
Bitcoin is stabilizing near $63,500. Strategy bought the dip. Metaplanet is expanding. The infrastructure keeps advancing even while the broader demand recovery remains incomplete.
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CLOSING LENS
Friday finally delivers the answer this week has been building toward.
Oil is at a two-month low on a deal that is not yet signed.
Inflation remains hot at the headline level but softer underneath.
Bitcoin is recovering after its worst week since FTX.
Everything now routes through one opening bell.
A strong SpaceX debut validates the AI financing cycle, supports upcoming IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic, and brings billions in future index demand behind it.
A weak debut forces investors to reconsider valuations across the entire AI complex.
The question all week was whether the AI trade was pausing or breaking.
By today's close, the market will have its first real answer.
