SpaceX Lost 16%. Iran Oil Returns. The AI Trade Slipped Again. Ethereum Found New Backers.

The Dow gained 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.32% to 26,166.

The split tells the story.

Healthcare and industrials rose. Mega-cap technology fell. The AI trade that drove markets higher spent Monday on defense.

SpaceX (SPCX) became the center of it.

Shares fell 16.4%, the largest decline since the company's historic IPO. The stock closed at $154.60 and is now down nearly 24% over three sessions.

The decline came as investors shifted from excitement to arithmetic.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators continued talks in Switzerland. Treasury authorized Iranian oil sales for 60 days through Aug. 21, while both sides reported progress toward a final agreement.

Markets now wait for two tests. Micron (MU) reports Wednesday. Core PCE arrives Thursday.

The Signal

The market spent June rewarding AI spending. Monday was the first session that asked what all that spending actually costs.

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The U.S. Treasury authorized Iranian oil production, delivery and sales for 60 days after what officials called productive talks in Switzerland.

Iran agreed to maintain open transit through Hormuz and allow IAEA inspectors back into the country.

The move matters because Iranian exports collapsed during the blockade.

Loadings fell from more than 1.5 million barrels per day before the conflict to just 260,000 barrels per day in May.

The reopening process has started. But it is not complete. Traffic remains well below prewar levels of more than 100 vessel crossings per day.

Vice President JD Vance said talks made "great progress" but acknowledged that demining operations and shipping normalization still lie ahead.

The market focused on the direction. Oil did not. Brent remained below $80 as traders priced future supply returning to the market.

Energy Signal

The authorization is real. The barrels are not fully back yet. Markets are pricing the destination before the journey is complete.

Keir Starmer resigned Monday, opening the path for Britain's seventh prime minister in ten years. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now the clear favorite to replace him.

Markets remained calm. Sterling barely moved. The reason is simple.

Investors are less concerned about who replaces Starmer than how the next government handles growth, spending and debt.

The IMF expects U.K. growth of just 0.8% next year.

Across the Atlantic, attention remains on inflation. Thursday's PCE report is now the most important number of the week.

After Kevin Warsh's hawkish first Fed meeting, investors want to know whether inflation data supports the higher-rate path now embedded in Fed projections.

A firm PCE reading strengthens the case for another hike. A softer number challenges it.

Macro Signal

The political headlines matter. The inflation data matters more.

Gold prices are soaring. 

Central banks around the world are buying hand-over-fist.

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SpaceX fell 16% Monday and lost more than $150 billion in market value.

The stock still sits above its $135 IPO price, but the conversation has changed. Investors are now looking at losses instead of momentum.

SpaceX disclosed $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents while announcing its first bond offering.

The company reportedly wants to raise roughly $20 billion in debt despite already holding one of the largest cash balances in corporate America.

The reason is expansion.

SpaceX wants more AI infrastructure, more compute capacity and eventually data centers in space.

The market's question is straightforward.How much should investors pay for growth that remains years away? The company lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

That debate spread across technology. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 5%. Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped between 2% and 5%. Micron now becomes the next test.

Capital Signal

The market spent two weeks rewarding AI ambition. It is now demanding evidence that the spending produces returns.

Silver has become one of the market’s rarest opportunities: growth and income in one trade. 

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Bitcoin traded near $64,200 after recovering from last week's low near $62,272.

The bounce remains fragile. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 20, deep in Extreme Fear territory. Bitcoin remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

The bigger development happened inside Ethereum. Former Ethereum Foundation researchers launched Ethlabs, a nonprofit backed by Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin and major ETH treasury companies.

At the same time, Bitmine bought another $92 million of ether. Chairman Tom Lee continues targeting ownership of 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply. The thesis is becoming clearer. Institutions increasingly view Ethereum as infrastructure rather than speculation.

Stablecoins, tokenized assets and AI-driven commerce all depend on blockchain rails. Bitmine and SharpLink are building large ETH positions to gain exposure to that trend. Bitcoin still faces ETF outflows. Ethereum is beginning to attract strategic buyers.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is trying to stabilize. Ethereum is attracting builders, researchers and balance-sheet buyers. The gap between the two stories continues to widen.

SpaceX lost 16%. The Nasdaq fell. Investors questioned AI spending.

At the same time, diplomacy continued working. Iranian oil is returning. Hormuz is reopening. Oil remains below $80.

Those two stories are connected.

The peace deal removes one source of inflation pressure just as investors begin questioning whether AI infrastructure spending can justify its valuation.

That leaves Thursday's PCE report sitting in the middle. If inflation cools, the market can refocus on growth. If inflation stays hot, the conversation shifts back toward rates.

The biggest winner of the last month was the AI trade. The biggest loser Monday was the AI trade. Micron reports Wednesday. That is where the market gets its next answer.