Stocks Ignored the Fed. Oil Fell Below $80. Bitcoin Lost $63,000. SpaceX's Rally Broke.

It spent the next day ignoring it.

Stocks rallied Thursday despite Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut. The Nasdaq gained 1.91%, the S&P 500 rose 1.08%, and the Dow added 72 points.

The move reversed much of Wednesday's selloff.

Investors focused on two things.

Oil kept falling.

The economy kept holding up.

The rebound came even as Treasury markets stayed cautious. The 2-year yield rose to 4.18%, its highest level in more than a year. Traders now see roughly a 70% chance of a Fed hike by September.

That split matters.

Bond markets are pricing tighter policy. Equity markets are still pricing growth.

The Signal

The Fed changed the rate outlook. The stock market chose to focus on lower oil and stronger earnings instead.

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U.S. gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon Thursday for the first time since March 30. The national average now sits at $3.99 after falling for 28 straight days from a May peak of $4.56.

Oil kept moving lower too.

Brent closed at $79.19 and WTI remained near $75. Both are now close to pre-war levels.

The catalyst remains the same.

The U.S. and Iran signed an interim agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and begins winding down the conflict that dominated markets all spring.

The first physical signs are now appearing.

Three Saudi supertankers carrying six million barrels crossed Hormuz this week. Vice President JD Vance said more than 12 million barrels passed through the waterway overnight, the highest volume since the conflict began.

Traffic remains far from normal.

Before the war, more than 100 ships crossed Hormuz every day. Kpler estimates 118 tankers remain trapped in the Gulf waiting for confidence to return.

The war premium is disappearing faster than the physical bottleneck.

Energy Signal

Oil has priced peace. Shipping has not fully returned. The next move depends on how quickly tankers follow the headlines.

That was the real message after the Fed meeting.

The Fed held rates steady. The Bank of England held rates steady. Yet markets continue pricing more tightening.

The ECB and BOJ have already moved toward higher rates while the Fed and BOE both signaled hikes remain possible.

The reason is credibility.

Inflation remains above target even after oil prices collapsed.

Central banks are increasingly worried that another inflation mistake would do more damage than slower growth.

Warsh's first meeting reinforced that view.

He removed forward guidance, declined to submit a dot plot projection, and emphasized price stability repeatedly.

Markets began the year expecting multiple rate cuts.

Now investors are debating how many hikes remain.

The shift is global.

Macro Signal

The Iran deal lowered oil prices. It did not end the inflation problem central banks are fighting.

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SpaceX (SPCX) fell more than 6% Thursday after one of the fastest post-IPO rallies ever.

Even after the decline, shares remain more than 30% above the $135 offering price.

The stock briefly became one of the five most valuable companies in America. Now investors are starting to ask what the business is actually worth.

The numbers show the shift.

Retail investors bought more than $300 million of SpaceX shares during the first three trading days after the IPO. Thursday's net purchases dropped to just $9 million.

That is a dramatic slowdown.

The company also faces growing questions about valuation, AI spending, and its recent $60 billion stock acquisition of Cursor parent Anysphere.

The broader AI trade looked healthier.

Intel (INTC) surged 10.6% after reports of deeper cooperation with Apple (AAPL). Nvidia (NVDA) gained roughly 3%. Micron (MU) rose nearly 9%.

The semiconductor sector helped power the Nasdaq's rebound.

Capital Signal

The AI trade remains strong. The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO frenzy is cooling into a valuation debate.

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Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 Thursday as investors continued reacting to the Fed's hawkish outlook.

The broader market held near $2.26 trillion, but ETF flows weakened again.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs lost a combined $111 million as hopes for near-term rate cuts faded.

The pressure is showing across the ecosystem.

JPMorgan estimates bitcoin production costs near $78,000 while bitcoin trades around $62,500 to $63,000. Roughly 20% of miners are now operating unprofitably.

The stress is already visible.

Mining difficulty recently fell 10%, the second major decline this year. Public miners sold more than 32,000 BTC during the first quarter to fund operations.

Strategy's funding machine is also under pressure.

Its STRC preferred stock briefly fell to $83 before recovering. That matters because Strategy uses STRC to raise capital for future bitcoin purchases.

Below par value, new issuance becomes harder.

Yet not everything is negative.

AI-linked miners rallied sharply. Cipher Mining gained 10.7%, HIVE rose 7.3%, and several other miners moved higher alongside technology stocks.

The infrastructure remains intact.

The flows remain weak.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is still fighting higher yields, ETF outflows, and weaker miner economics. The long-term infrastructure story remains stronger than the short-term price action.

The Fed turned hawkish.

Stocks rallied anyway.

Oil fell below $80. Gasoline dropped below $4. The first tankers moved through Hormuz. Investors decided those stories mattered more than a higher dot plot.

The biggest loser was not equities.

It was the trade that needs lower rates most.

Bitcoin fell below $63,000. Gold remains well below its highs. Treasury yields continue moving higher.

The market is making a distinction.

Growth can survive higher rates.

Assets that depend on easier money still cannot.

Next week starts with a simpler question than the one markets faced all spring.

The war is ending.

Now investors have to decide whether higher rates are just beginning.