The Ceasefire Landed. Oil Collapsed. Bitcoin Broke $72K.

Trump posted at 7:58 p.m. Eastern suspending attacks on Iran for two weeks, conditional on immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran confirmed safe passage within minutes. Pakistan brokered it. Formal negotiations begin Friday in Islamabad.

Markets moved instantly.

Dow futures surged 1,124 points. S&P 500 futures gained 2.6%. Nasdaq jumped 3.2%. Brent fell 14%. WTI dropped 15%. The VIX fell 20%. The dollar declined 1%. Gold rose 2.4% to $4,814. The 10-year yield fell to 4.24%.

Everything repriced at once.

Six weeks of escalation cleared in one session.

The narrative shifted just as fast.

The “TACO trade”, Trump Always Chickens Out, is now being used openly. Franklin Templeton called it a relief rebound, not normalization. The distinction matters.

Markets priced the headline.

The system has not reset yet.

The Signal

The worst-case scenario is off the table. The next move depends on whether two weeks becomes something durable.

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The physical system did not.

Brent fell below $95. WTI traded near $96. Both are still up more than 50% since February 28. The futures market repriced peace. The physical market is still catching up.

The constraints remain.

Lloyd’s of London said Gulf shipping will not normalize immediately. War-risk premiums remain multiples above peacetime levels. Roughly 1,000 ships are still stuck across the system.

Iran added a caveat.

Safe passage comes with “technical limitations.”

No one has defined what that means.

The equity market reacted faster.

Venture Global dropped more than 10% premarket after gaining 65% during the war. Diamondback and Occidental each fell more than 7%. In Europe, energy was the only sector down while the Stoxx 600 rose nearly 4%.

The unwind is selective.

Capital Economics sees Brent at $80 by year-end if flows normalize over two months.

That is the timeline.

Not overnight.

The Signal

Futures priced peace immediately. Physical markets are pricing a staged reopening with unresolved constraints.

Before the ceasefire, markets priced no Fed cuts until 2027. After, the probability of at least one cut by December jumped to 43% from 14%. Rate hike odds fell to near zero.

The move was global.

The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 11 basis points. German bund yields fell 16 basis points. The Bank of England shifted from pricing nearly four hikes to just over one.

That is a full reset.

But the data has not reset yet.

The FOMC minutes arrive at 2 p.m. today. They were written with oil near $100 and the war three weeks old. They will show a Fed preparing for stagflation.

That context matters.

Thursday’s PCE and Friday’s CPI will still reflect March’s energy spike. The inflation data is already locked in.

The ceasefire arrived after the damage.

The Signal

The inflation premium is unwinding fast. The data this week prices what the war already did, not what it might do next.

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It rarely does.

Broadcom’s(AVGO) expanded partnership with Google(GOOGL) and Anthropic is now scaling into a different macro backdrop. The company is tied to roughly 3.5 gigawatts of compute demand and projected to generate $21 billion in AI revenue from Anthropic in 2026 and $42 billion in 2027.

Anthropic itself is accelerating.

Revenue has exceeded $30 billion annualized, up from $9 billion at year-end. Business clients spending more than $1 million annually doubled in two months.

The demand side is intact.

The supply side is catching up.

Samsung expects first-quarter operating profit to be more than eight times last year’s level. Memory prices are projected to rise more than 50% in Q2.

The same war that disrupted helium supply chains also accelerated demand for AI chips.

Constraint and growth moved together.

Now the constraint is easing.

The capital cycle is not.

The Signal

AI infrastructure scaled through the shock. The easing of energy pressure removes one constraint, not the need for capital.

It reached $72,750 overnight and is holding near $71,700 in early trading, up roughly 5% in 24 hours.

The move was mechanical.

Nearly $600 million in leveraged crypto futures were liquidated, more than $400 million from short positions. Ethereum(ETH), XRP, and Solana gained between 4% and 6%. Strategy, Coinbase, and Circle all moved higher in premarket.

The macro ceiling lifted.

At the same time, structure improved.

The SEC dismissed seven major cases against Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Consensys, Cumberland, Dragonchain, and Balana. It acknowledged flaws in its prior enforcement approach, calling it a misinterpretation of securities law and an institutional bias toward case volume.

That removes a three-year overhang.

Policy followed.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers found banning stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by only 0.02%, directly contradicting the banking sector’s main argument against the Clarity Act.

Circle rose on the news.

The long-term risk also clarified.

New research showed a quantum 51% attack on bitcoin mining would require energy equivalent to a small star. That scenario is physically unreachable. The real vulnerability remains wallet exposure for older addresses. Developers are working on BIP-360 upgrades.

The narrative shifted.

From existential risk to defined engineering problem.

The Verdict

Bitcoin broke $72K as macro pressure lifted and regulatory risk cleared. The ceiling moved higher. The next test is whether flows follow price.

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Six weeks of war ended in one post.

Trump announced the ceasefire at 7:58 p.m. Eastern. Oil fell 15%. Bitcoin broke $72,000. Equities surged. Yields dropped.

Everything repriced at once.

The harder question starts now.

The ceasefire lasts two weeks. It is conditional. It includes “technical limitations” that remain undefined. Insurance markets say shipping will not normalize immediately. Roughly 1,000 ships are still stuck. March’s inflation is already embedded in this week’s data.

The FOMC minutes today reflect a Fed preparing for a different world.

The market is pricing a better one.

That gap defines the next move.

The $150 oil scenario is off the table for now.

The structural damage is not.

The timeline shifted.

It did not disappear.

The physical system still owns it.

The ceasefire just bought time.