The Dip Buyers Came Back. Bitcoin Didn't Get the Memo.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%. South Korea's Kospi jumped 8.2%, almost fully reversing Monday's 8.3% crash. SK Hynix surged 16%. Samsung gained 9%. Japan's Nikkei added 2.2%.

The AI trade is bouncing.

Oil is moving the other direction. Brent fell nearly 2% toward $92.60 after Iran and Israel halted direct exchanges of fire Monday. President Trump said the two sides are "very close to having a good strong powerful deal."

Treasury yields were little changed. The dollar eased. The VIX fell to 18, its lowest level since last week's selloff.

The rebound is broad across semiconductors. It is not broad in crypto.

Bitcoin slipped 1.1% overnight to roughly $62,600 even as investors returned to names like Micron Technology (MU) and Marvell Technology (MRVL).

Three data points arrive today: NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, and the trade balance. None are likely to move markets.

Tomorrow's CPI is the number that matters.

The Signal

The chip rebound is real. Bitcoin is not participating. CPI tomorrow decides whether the recovery holds.

$7.7 billion.

Spent on AI infrastructure — in a single quarter.

Not chips. Not software. Power infrastructure.

The filing shows $23.85 billion in servers. $14 billion in construction in progress. And one glaring dependency — the company that builds the equipment to actually turn it all on.

Without this hardware, Colossus doesn't run. The $1.25 billion Anthropic pays every month stops flowing. The entire AI empire goes dark.

The stock is still trading like nobody's read the filing.

Dylan Jovine has — and he's giving away the name free.

See the S-1's most critical dependency

Brent dropped nearly 2% to $92.60. WTI slipped toward $90. Traders used the ceasefire pause to remove some of the geopolitical premium that returned over the weekend.

But a pause is not a settlement.

Iran warned it could resume attacks if Israeli operations continue in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the conflict is not over.

The larger story sits beyond this week's headlines.

Even if Hormuz reopens soon, global energy markets will not normalize quickly. Nearly 500 million barrels of crude and refined products are needed to rebuild depleted inventories outside the Persian Gulf. That deficit grows by roughly 5.8 million barrels every additional day the strait remains impaired.

Executives at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Saudi Aramco estimate shipping activity may take at least four months to recover to 80% of prewar levels.

Governments are already adjusting.

Pakistan, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expanding strategic reserves. Japan pledged $10 billion to support energy security programs across Asia.

Energy Signal

The ceasefire pause pushed oil lower. The supply problem extends months beyond any diplomatic agreement.

Rates may not be high enough.

The two-year Treasury yield sits near 4.15%, well above the Fed's current policy range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The gap widened sharply after Friday's strong payrolls report.

Markets are increasingly pricing a higher neutral rate than the Fed itself projects. Swaps markets now estimate an inflation-adjusted neutral rate near 1.8%, compared with the Fed's 1.1% median estimate.

That suggests investors believe policymakers may still be underestimating inflation pressure.

NFIB small business optimism fell to 95.3 in May, its lowest reading since October 2024. Nearly 70% of respondents reported supply chain disruptions. Inflation concerns rose for a third straight month.

Most striking was investment.

Only 16% of owners plan capital spending over the next three to six months, matching the lowest reading since 2009.

That creates a two-speed economy.

Large technology firms are spending record amounts on AI infrastructure. Small businesses are pulling back.

Citi's strategy team moved its risk outlook from yellow to red ahead of three major catalysts: CPI Wednesday, the ECB meeting Thursday, and ongoing Middle East uncertainty.

Macro Signal

The bond market says rates are too low. Small businesses say costs are too high. CPI tomorrow decides which concern matters more.

That’s what the media wants you to focus on.

But behind the scenes, it seems President Trump is quietly preparing something far more shocking — that will leave even his most loyal MAGA patriots stunned.

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The company confidentially filed for a public offering one week after Anthropic and days before SpaceX prices its IPO.

The lineup is now clear.

SpaceX prices Thursday and lists Friday. Anthropic is targeting a fall debut. OpenAI could follow as early as the fourth quarter.

The AI capital cycle continues to accelerate.

Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) have issued roughly $159 billion of debt this year alone. That compares with $108 billion during all of last year.

The scale resembles an infrastructure boom more than a traditional technology cycle.

China added another layer.

Officials are preparing a $295 billion national AI infrastructure plan centered around data centers and domestic chip production. China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA) are expected to play central roles.

The goal is clear: reduce dependence on foreign technology and build an AI stack powered by domestic suppliers, especially Huawei.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) failed to impress investors despite revealing that its most advanced AI systems rely on Nvidia (NVDA) hardware running through Alphabet's cloud infrastructure.

The market's response was simple. Expectations remain too high.

Nvidia also faces rising political pressure. CEO Jensen Huang declined Senator Elizabeth Warren's invitation to testify before Congress on AI, China, and export controls, offering instead to host lawmakers at Nvidia headquarters.

Capital Signal

OpenAI joined Anthropic and SpaceX in the IPO pipeline. The AI financing cycle now includes $159 billion in bonds, three major IPOs, and a $295 billion Chinese infrastructure plan.

The price remains near $62,600, down roughly 14% from last week's highs. Volatility has eased, but buyers have not returned.

One signal stands out.

USDT dominance jumped sharply last week while Tether's total market capitalization actually fell. That combination suggests capital did not rotate from bitcoin into stablecoins.

It left crypto altogether.

Wintermute said client flows show retail investors selling bitcoin and rotating into AI-linked equities and pre-IPO opportunities.

That makes SpaceX important for crypto.

If the IPO performs well, some of that risk appetite may eventually return to digital assets. If it struggles, there is little support visible between $59,000 and $50,000.

JPMorgan (JPM) also warned that Strategy (MSTR) needs to rebuild confidence after cash reserves fell sharply before its recent $101 million bitcoin purchase and announcement of a new $1 billion reserve.

The structural demand picture still depends heavily on a small number of buyers.

Elsewhere, Humanity Protocol's H token collapsed more than 80% after attackers stole private keys and drained over $32 million from foundation-linked wallets.

The lesson remains the same.

The biggest crypto losses in 2026 are increasingly coming from key-management failures rather than smart-contract bugs.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is stabilizing but not recovering. Capital left crypto and moved toward AI. SpaceX is now the next major test for risk appetite.

Elon has filed to take SpaceX Public... in an IPO that will hit a $1.75 trillion valuation.

The biggest in Wall Street history...

And you know who's going to make all the money? The banks brokering the deal. The hedge fund managers. The billionaire insiders. The same "already rich" 1%'ers.

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The Nasdaq is recovering from a sharp selloff. That does not automatically mean a new rally has begun.

Bitcoin's situation is different.

Chip stocks bounced because investors still believe the AI demand story. Bitcoin bounced because Strategy (MSTR) stepped in as a buyer.

Those are not the same foundations.

SpaceX prices Thursday. CPI lands tomorrow. The Fed meets next week.

Those three events will determine whether capital continues rotating into AI infrastructure or begins broadening back into other risk assets.

The market is not out of the woods.

It is simply standing in brighter light than it was a few days ago.