The Dip Got Bought. Jensen Got the Last Seat. The Strait Is Running Out of Time.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% after inflation printed at 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023. Chips took the hit. Intel(INTC) fell 6.8%. Qualcomm(QCOM) dropped 11%. Sandisk(SNDK) lost 6.2%. SOXX fell 3%.

By Wednesday morning, futures had reversed. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%.

The catalyst is sitting on Air Force One.

Trump reportedly called Nvidia(NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang after seeing reports that he was not in the China delegation. Huang flew to Alaska to join the trip. Markets read that as a signal that chip export rules could be discussed in Beijing.

Intel(INTC), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Micron Technology(MU), and Qualcomm(QCOM) all rose premarket.

PPI lands at 8:30. Consensus expects 0.5% headline and 0.4% core. A second hot inflation print would make the Fed’s path even tighter.

The Signal

The market bought the dip before PPI even landed. Growth conviction is still intact.

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Global oil supply has declined by 12.8 million barrels per day since February. Inventories fell by 250 million barrels across March and April. OPEC spare capacity is down to just 170,000 barrels per day, the lowest in more than 35 years.

The IEA still assumes Hormuz flows gradually resume in June. Even then, demand growth does not return until August. Rebuilding inventories could require another 1 million barrels per day for three years.

Kharg Island has gone dark.

Satellite images showed no ocean-going tankers at Iran’s main export terminal on May 8, 9, and 11. Storage tanks appear close to capacity. If Iran runs out of storage, it may have to cut production.

JPMorgan said developed-market crude stocks could hit operational stress by early June. Morgan Stanley called oil a race against time.

Energy Signal

The market is pricing diplomacy. The physical market is pricing shortage.

Tuesday’s CPI print pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.46%, its highest close since last summer. Five-year inflation breakevens hit their highest level since October 2022. Markets are no longer treating the energy shock as temporary.

The Trump-Xi summit begins today in Beijing. Trump said he does not need China’s help to end the Iran conflict, but Hormuz is still the key issue for markets. Expectations are limited: symbolic progress, no new tariffs, and modest trade commitments.

Kevin Warsh cleared the Senate board vote 51-45. His full Fed chair confirmation is expected today.

He enters with CPI at 3.8%, real wages negative, the 10-year near 4.5%, and markets pricing roughly 30% odds of another rate hike by year-end.

Macro Signal

Two inflation prints, a Fed transition, and a China summit are hitting in the same 24-hour window.

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Analysts described it as buyer exhaustion after a 59% run in the SOX since late March. Hedge funds had already been selling into the rally. Asset managers were forced to buy to avoid missing gains.

Jensen Huang joining the China trip is the main capital markets signal. Nvidia(NVDA) has been largely locked out of China’s advanced AI chip market for years. Any change to export rules would reopen a major demand pool.

The AI infrastructure trade remains broader than GPUs.

The Roundhill Memory ETF crossed $6 billion in assets in five weeks, the fastest ETF accumulation pace on record. Retail investors bought $55 million of the fund last Friday, more than they put into Nvidia(NVDA) that day.

Private credit is the quiet risk. Blue Owl Capital(OWL)’s OBDC fund trades at 78 cents on the dollar to reported NAV as investors question illiquid asset values in a higher-rate world.

Capital Signal

Jensen Huang on Air Force One is the AI trade’s best near-term catalyst. Private credit opacity is the hidden risk.

That is the key crypto signal.

Bitcoin held while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower. Ether(ETH) still lags. Capital inside crypto is choosing the macro hedge over the platform trade.

Positioning is constructive. Global crypto funds saw $858 million in inflows last week. Short bitcoin products saw $14 million in outflows, the largest short unwind of 2026.

XRP led South Korean trading overnight. XRP/KRW volume on Upbit hit $110.9 million, ahead of bitcoin at $88.6 million and ether at $67 million. XRP is still stuck below the $1.49 to $1.50 resistance zone.

Charles Schwab(SCHW) began rolling out direct spot bitcoin and ether trading to retail customers. That opens direct crypto access to a platform with about $12 trillion in client assets and roughly 35 million accounts.

JPMorgan Chase(JPM) filed for JLTXX, a tokenized Treasury money market fund on Ethereum through Kinexys Digital Assets. The tokenized real-world asset market has passed $32 billion.

The Clarity Act markup is tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. The ethics provision remains unresolved. Seven Democratic Senate votes are still needed.

The Verdict

Bitcoin held $80,000 through the hottest CPI print in three years. Schwab opened direct spot trading. JPMorgan expanded tokenized Treasury infrastructure. The macro pressure is rising, but institutional rails are still being built.

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Wednesday opens with the market trying to answer what Tuesday raised.

CPI confirmed the oil shock has entered the economy. PPI will show whether that pressure has moved deeper into producer prices. If it does, the 30% rate-hike probability becomes more than a tail risk.

The Trump-Xi summit is the diplomacy test. The IEA says even a June resolution leaves months of supply deficits. Kharg Island has gone dark. Crude inventories are moving toward stress levels by early June.

Jensen Huang joining Air Force One is the best AI signal. Schwab opening spot crypto is the best structural crypto signal. Both arrived one day after the hottest inflation print in three years.

Bitcoin held through it.

PPI is next. Beijing is next. The Clarity Act is tomorrow.