The Dow Bought Peace. Nasdaq Sold Chips. Bitcoin Lost the Bid.

The Dow surged over 850 points to a record close of. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%.

That split tells the story.

Investors bought healthcare, financials, and peace hopes. They sold chips.

UnitedHealth (UNH) rose 5.2% after Bank of America (BAC) upgraded the stock to buy. Financials recovered after Wednesday’s private credit scare. Blackstone (BX) gained 7.5% even after capping withdrawals from its private credit fund.

  Tech lagged because Broadcom (AVGO) missed the bar. The stock fell 12.6% after second-quarter revenue came in at $22.19 billion, below estimates. The company still forecast $16 billion in AI chip sales next quarter, more than triple last year’s level. It also expects to ship more than 10 gigawatts of AI chips in 2027. But investors wanted the $100 billion 2027 AI revenue target raised. Broadcom only reiterated it.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron (MU), and Qualcomm (QCOM) fell between 2.6% and 7.7%. Marvell (MRVL) was the exception, rising 4.9%.

The Signal

The market is not rejecting AI. It is rejecting AI results that do not beat the already extreme story.

The AI trade that made the Mag 7 soar is starting to crack.

Overpriced giants like Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon are facing slowing returns — just as smaller, lesser-known names are positioning to take market share.

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WTI dropped 3.1% to $93.04. Brent fell 2.8% to $95.03 after reports said Trump is reluctant to restart full-scale war with Iran, even after recent clashes.

The White House said Trump prefers diplomacy but warned Iran of consequences if it refuses a deal. Trump also said he would be “honored” to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if that helped secure an agreement.

The problem is that the ceasefire is not clean.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire because Hezbollah was not part of the talks. Israel continues strikes in southern Lebanon. Iran and U.S. forces exchanged attacks in the Gulf. Iran struck Kuwait’s airport, killing one person and injuring more than 60. The U.S. carried out strikes near Hormuz.

Trump called the ceasefires a way to allow “shooting in a more moderate manner.” That is not peace. It is managed conflict.

Energy Signal

Oil is falling because Trump does not want escalation. It is not falling because Hormuz is fixed.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% Thursday night. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%. Dow futures were flat as investors turned toward Friday’s May jobs report.

Economists expect 80,000 jobs added in May, down from the recent two-month average of 150,000. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.3%.

The labor data matters more now because inflation is still sticky and Fed officials are no longer only talking about cuts. If payrolls are strong, the market will price a higher chance of a hike. If payrolls are weak, the soft-landing story comes back.

Jobless claims rose 6.1%. May layoffs hit 97,006, and nearly 40% were tied to AI. That is the other side of the automation boom. Companies are spending heavily on AI while also cutting labor connected to it.

Walmart (WMT) showed the same transition. More than 60% of its stores now receive freight from automated distribution centers. More than 50% of e-commerce fulfillment volume is automated. Fast delivery sales rose more than 50% year over year. Same-day and next-day units from fulfillment centers increased 150%. Shipping costs have been falling in the 30% range for several quarters.

Macro Signal

AI is raising productivity inside companies. It is also starting to show up in layoffs. Tomorrow’s payrolls will show how much labor is bending under that shift.

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The company publicly set its IPO price at $135 per share one week before the offering. That breaks normal price-discovery practice. The deal aims to raise $75 billion and value SpaceX at $1.75 trillion. The roadshow begins Thursday. Pricing is expected June 11. Trading starts on Nasdaq the next day.

The structure reflects Musk’s control. SpaceX may allocate up to 30% of the offering to retail investors. It is also seeking faster index inclusion and preserving strong founder control.

The valuation is the risk. SpaceX lost $4.94 billion in 2025 while revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion. That implies a revenue multiple above 90 times.

Amazon (AMZN) pushed the automation side of the AI story. It unveiled an upgraded AI-powered Proteus warehouse robot as part of a €10 billion investment in European fulfillment. The new robot can move across warehouse floors and respond to spoken prompts. Amazon also showed STARK, a robotic tote-handling system, and Vulcan, its first robot with a sense of touch.

Lululemon (LULU) fell about 10% after hours after cutting full-year guidance. ServiceTitan (TTAN) rose 13% after raising its outlook. Argan (AGX) gained 12% after stronger results.

Capital Signal

SpaceX is rewriting the IPO process. Amazon is rewriting the warehouse. AI is no longer a software story. It is labor, logistics, capital markets, and valuation.

Bitcoin is down 13% this week and is on pace for its worst week since February. Spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded 13 straight days of net outflows, the longest streak on record. Total ETF assets have fallen from $107.8 billion on May 14 to $82.8 billion.

The trigger remains Strategy (MSTR). Its sale of 32 BTC for about $2.5 million was tiny, but it damaged the “never sell” narrative. That helped spark $594 million in long liquidations.

Bitcoin is no longer trading like digital gold. It is not trading like high-beta tech either. The S&P 500 is near records. AI stocks are still attracting capital. Bitcoin is not.

Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Strategy (MSTR) remain under pressure.

JPMorgan said the Clarity Act may have only a narrow window to pass this year. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 but still needs 60 Senate votes, House reconciliation, and Trump’s signature.

The main fight is stablecoin yield. Banks want tighter limits. Crypto firms want flexibility. JPMorgan said restrictions could push idle crypto cash toward tokenized Treasuries, digital money market funds, or tokenized deposits.

The Verdict

Crypto has legislation, ETFs, and infrastructure. It does not have flows. That is the problem.

That's not noise. That's capital rushing back into AI.

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The Dow bought peace. The Nasdaq sold perfection. Bitcoin lost the bid.

Broadcom (AVGO) did not break the AI thesis. It showed how high the bar has become. Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) showed AI is moving into the physical economy. SpaceX showed capital markets are willing to bend around the biggest private companies.

Oil fell because Trump still wants a deal. But the ceasefire still includes shooting. Hormuz is still unresolved.

Bitcoin is the cleanest warning signal. It missed the equity rally, lost ETF support, and now depends on either Strategy (MSTR) buying again or Washington delivering crypto legislation before the window closes.

Payrolls land tomorrow.

For one more night, AI owns the tape.