The Dow closed at another record while the Nasdaq fell on a chip pullback. Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting today, with a hold priced near 97%. SpaceX (SPCX) is up more than 50% since its IPO and just agreed to buy Cursor parent Anysphere for $60 billion. Brent crude sits near $79. Bitcoin trades near $64,800. The Fed speaks at 2 PM.
MARKET PULSE
The war is gone.
The Fed is all that remains.
U.S. futures rose ahead of Kevin Warsh's first rate decision as chairman. Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.6%. S&P 500 futures added 0.3%. Dow futures were little changed after another record close above 52,000.
Tuesday showed rotation, not retreat.
The Dow gained 0.64%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.57%. The Nasdaq lost 1.15% as chip stocks cooled after a powerful run.
AMD fell more than 7%. Micron (MU) dropped 6%. Broadcom (AVGO) lost 4%.
The rest of the market kept moving higher.
The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.47%. Brent traded near $79. Bitcoin was the weak spot, down about 2.4% to $64,800.
Everything now points to one event.
The Fed decision arrives at 2 PM ET. Warsh's first press conference follows 30 minutes later.
The Signal
The market spent three months trading war headlines. Today it trades one person.
Premier Feature
Why are companies flying spy planes over Elon's closely-guarded AI lab?
Elon did the seemingly impossible – far faster than anyone expected...
ChatGPT, Claude, Google Gemini, and DeepSeek could soon become obsolete.
And three little-known firms could soar 10X or higher as a result.
ENERGY
Oil is telling a very different story than it was two weeks ago.
Brent traded near $79 and WTI near $76 after another sharp decline. Both are now at their lowest levels since March.
The move reflects growing confidence that the U.S.-Iran agreement will reopen Hormuz and allow Iranian crude exports to return.
Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 from $90.
The peace framework continues to expand.
The agreement now includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. More than $150 billion has already been committed by private investors from the Gulf, Asia, Africa, South America and the United States.
The fund creates a financial incentive for both sides to complete a final agreement.
That is the surface.
The structure is more complicated.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits near 340 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. U.S. inventories fell another 8.3 million barrels last week.
The market is pricing peace today and oversupply tomorrow.
Energy Signal
Oil is falling because the war premium disappeared. The longer-term story is shifting toward excess supply.
MACRO
The decision is easy.
The communication is not.
Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this afternoon. Odds of no change sit near 97%.
The debate centers on Warsh.
Several economists expect him to leave his own dot off the new dot plot. Warsh has repeatedly criticized forward guidance and argued that rate forecasts create unnecessary rigidity.
That would be a meaningful change.
Inflation remains elevated.
May CPI came in at 4.2%, the highest reading since 2023. Core CPI was softer at 2.9%.
The collapse in oil helps.
The labor market does not.
Payroll growth remains strong and markets still price roughly a 43% chance of a December hike.
Warsh has an opportunity today to reset how the Fed communicates without changing policy.
That may matter more than the rate decision itself.
Macro Signal
Rates stay unchanged. The market is watching whether Warsh changes the Fed's playbook.
From Our Partners
Cisco was once the MOST valuable company on Earth. Then it fell 80% - and investors waited 25 YEARS just to break even.
A Wall Street legend is out with a new warning: "It's about to happen again." He says many of today's overhyped AI darlings - stocks sitting in almost every 401(k) in America - could lose up to HALF their value or more.
He just went on camera with the names.
CAPITAL
SpaceX is already acting like a public giant.
The acquisition strengthens SpaceX's AI position following its earlier purchase of xAI.
Cursor is one of the fastest-growing AI coding products in the market and competes directly with OpenAI and Anthropic tools.
The deal highlights the real benefit of a successful IPO.
Currency.
SpaceX is using stock rather than cash to acquire strategic assets.
Shares have risen more than 50% from the $135 IPO price and briefly pushed the company to a $2.94 trillion valuation during Tuesday trading.
At one point, SpaceX (SPCX) was worth more than Microsoft.
The broader AI buildout continues as well.
Intel (INTC) entered risk production for its new 18A-P process and moved closer to potentially winning future Apple manufacturing business.
The AI investment cycle remains fully intact.
Capital Signal
SpaceX is no longer an IPO story. It is becoming one of the largest consolidators in AI.
CRYPTO PULSE
Bitcoin is on the wrong side of the rotation again.
Bitcoin traded near $64,800 Wednesday morning, down 2.4% overnight. It is still holding above the $60,000 level that defined last week's panic, but it has not reclaimed momentum.
The issue is rates.
Bitcoin is trading like a liquidity asset, not a haven. A hawkish Fed projection this afternoon would pressure it directly. When Treasuries pay more than 4%, the cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises.
BlackRock (BLK) is now trying to solve that problem. It launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, a covered-call product that trades away some upside for a mid-to-high-teens yield. That is the market admitting bitcoin needs income to compete with cash and bonds.
The spot ETF picture remains the core problem. U.S. bitcoin funds extended their record outflow streak, draining billions since mid-May. The structural bid that carried bitcoin for 18 months has not returned.
The timing hurts. The same week SpaceX (SPCX) used stock to buy Anysphere for $60 billion, crypto capital kept rotating toward AI, pre-IPO exposure, and real-world-asset trades.
The Verdict
Bitcoin held $60,000 but cannot escape it. BlackRock is selling yield instead of upside. A hawkish dot plot tightens the vise. A neutral one gives bitcoin its first relief in weeks.
From Our Partners
On September 8th, a powerful new law signed by President Trump will trigger a radical shift in America’s money system...
When a small group of private companies — not the Fed — will perform a major mint of a new kind of money.
And those who act before this new system fully kicks in could see gains as high as 40X by 2032.
But those who fail to prepare will be blindsided by this sea change to the U.S. dollar.
CLOSING LENS
Three weeks ago every conversation started with oil.
Today oil is at a three-month low.
The peace agreement is moving toward Friday's signing ceremony. The reconstruction fund is growing. The war premium is gone.
That leaves one dominant variable.
The Fed.
Warsh enters his first meeting with inflation at 4.2%, oil collapsing, labor markets still tight, and the strongest AI capital cycle in history.
SpaceX is using public-market currency to reshape AI.
Bitcoin is still searching for its next source of demand.
By 2:30 PM, markets will know whether the new Fed chairman plans to communicate differently than the old one.
The rate decision is priced.
The message is not.
