The Fed Held and Turned Hawkish. Stocks Fell, Then Futures Bounced. Oil Hit Three-Month Lows. Bitcoin Slid Under $64,000.

Wednesday's selloff was sharp. The Dow fell 507 points to 51,492. The S&P 500 lost 1.21%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.34%. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.16%, while the 10-year rose to 4.46%.

Then futures reversed.

Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.3% overnight. S&P 500 futures gained 0.8%. Dow futures added more than 280 points.

The move reflects a simple conclusion.

The Fed sounded hawkish. It did not actually hike.

Asia helped stabilize sentiment. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.65% to a fresh record. South Korea's Kospi gained 2.3% and crossed 9,000 for the first time. SK Hynix jumped 6.5% to another record high.

Today brings decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank. Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR) also report before U.S. markets close for Juneteenth tomorrow.

The Signal

The bond market heard a hawkish Fed. Equity markets heard a Fed that still did nothing.

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The agreement only guarantees free passage through Hormuz for 60 days. After that, Iran plans to introduce fees tied to security, insurance, and navigation.

That means the waterway is reopening. It is not returning to pre-war conditions.

Markets are focusing on near-term relief.

The forward curve now points toward oil near $72 by early 2027, reflecting expectations for a managed reopening rather than a renewed disruption.

Energy Signal

The war premium is leaving the market. The long-term structure of Hormuz remains unresolved.

The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.

That part was fully expected.

The surprise came from the projections.

Nine of eighteen officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. The median year-end rate projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

Warsh added another layer.

He declined to submit his own dot plot projection and removed forward guidance from the Fed statement.

Instead, he announced five task forces focused on communications, the balance sheet, inflation, employment, and productivity.

Markets interpreted the combination as hawkish.

The Fed did not signal a hike today.

It made future hikes easier to imagine.

Treasury yields responded immediately.

The 2-year yield jumped 11 basis points. The 10-year moved back toward 4.5%.

Macro Signal

The Fed is now harder to read and more willing to keep rates higher if inflation refuses to fall.

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The stock has risen more than 40% since its $135 IPO price and now carries a valuation near $2.5 trillion.

At one point this week, SpaceX briefly surpassed Amazon in market value.

The debate has shifted.

Investors are no longer asking whether the IPO worked.

They are asking what the company is actually worth.

That debate will get louder.

SpaceX has less than 5% of its shares available for trading, which magnifies price swings. Options trading has started. Tomorrow's quarterly options expiration could increase volatility further.

Analysts remain divided.

CFRA carries a $115 target. Oppenheimer sees $190.

The gap reflects a broader disagreement about how much investors should pay for AI, space infrastructure, and future growth.

Meanwhile, the broader AI capital cycle continues.

Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Amazon (AMZN), and other leaders keep raising capital and expanding infrastructure despite higher rates.

Capital Signal

SpaceX is becoming the benchmark for how markets value the next generation of AI and infrastructure companies.

Bitcoin fell below $64,000 after the Fed meeting and traded near $63,900 overnight.

The issue is not sentiment.

It is competition.

Treasuries now offer yields above 4%, while bitcoin offers none. A more hawkish Fed raises the opportunity cost of holding crypto.

ETF flows remain the main challenge.

June's outflow streak pulled roughly $4.4 billion from spot bitcoin ETFs and pushed cumulative 2026 flows negative for the first time since launch.

The contrast with equities is becoming clearer.

Capital continues flowing toward AI, infrastructure, and companies like SpaceX while crypto struggles to attract fresh institutional demand.

The long-term structure remains intact.

Cumulative ETF inflows since launch still exceed $58 billion. Long-term holders remain active. Infrastructure continues expanding.

The missing piece is a macro catalyst.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is trading yields, not headlines. The institutional base remains intact, but fresh demand has not returned.

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The Fed meeting is over.

The market's interpretation is still evolving.

Warsh held rates steady, removed forward guidance, skipped the dot plot, and left investors with a more hawkish set of projections.

The first reaction was a selloff.

The second reaction was a rebound.

Oil continues falling as the Iran agreement approaches Friday's signing. SpaceX continues redefining how public markets value AI and infrastructure. Bitcoin remains stuck between higher yields and weaker flows.

The war story is ending.

The rate story is taking its place.

Next week the market will have to decide whether Wednesday was the start of a new hiking cycle or simply a reminder that inflation is still not fully defeated.