The U.S. and Iran Reached a Peace Deal. Oil Crashed. SpaceX Proved the AI Trade Is Still Open.

The U.S. and Iran reached a peace agreement Sunday. Trump called the deal complete, ordered an end to the naval blockade, and authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A signing ceremony is expected Friday in Switzerland.

The agreement reportedly includes a Lebanon ceasefire, the release of $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and 60 days of nuclear negotiations.

Markets responded immediately.

Japan's Nikkei surged 5% to a record intraday high. South Korea's Kospi jumped 5.2%. Germany's DAX moved above 25,000 for the first time.

U.S. futures followed. Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 2%. S&P 500 futures rose 1.2%. Dow futures added 1%.

Brent fell below $84. The dollar slipped to a two-week low. Bitcoin climbed above $65,500.

One asset did not follow the script. Gold rose another 2% toward a record near $4,340.

The risk trade and the hedge against it are both rising.

The Signal

The war premium disappeared in a single weekend. The relief trade is real. The Fed meeting on Wednesday is now the market's next test.

With this audacious move, President Trump could seal his historic legacy. 

Minting a whole new generation of American millionaires in the process.

And nobody is paying attention. 

But in this jaw-dropping new video, one ex-Wall Street insider exposes the smoking gun evidence that a Trump-approved $7.5 trillion tsunami is about to hit the markets.

Including a personal letter,  written by President Trump himself, revealing why phase one of this secret plan could be just days away. 

Click here for full details on the secret plan to unlock $7.5 trillion for American investors NOW.

Brent fell below $84. WTI dropped more than 5% toward $80, its lowest level since March.

Nearly 20% of global oil flows move through Hormuz. The peace deal removes the largest risk hanging over energy markets.

But diplomacy moves faster than physical supply.

A signed agreement does not clear shipping lanes, repair damaged facilities, or restore inventories overnight. Industry estimates suggest it could take four months for shipping activity to recover to roughly 80% of prewar levels.

That matters because inventories remain tight.

ING recently warned that oil could still move toward $120 to $130 later this summer if physical flows fail to recover fast enough.

The market removed the war premium immediately.

The supply deficit will take much longer to disappear.

Energy Signal

Oil priced peace in a weekend. The barrels still need time to move.

It does not remove the labor problem.

Kevin Warsh leads his first FOMC meeting Wednesday. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.

The debate is no longer about this week's decision.

It is about the message.

May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, the highest level in three years. Yet core inflation increased only 0.2% during the month and 2.9% annually.

Much of the inflation surge came from energy.

If Hormuz reopens, that pressure should fade.

The labor market is different.

May payrolls increased by 172,000, more than double expectations. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has repeatedly warned that AI infrastructure construction is creating localized labor shortages and wage pressure that national data may not fully capture.

Oil can fall.

Labor demand may not.

The market wants lower oil prices to mean lower inflation risk.

Warsh may argue those are separate issues.

Macro Signal

The energy shock is fading. Labor remains strong. Wednesday's question is whether Warsh treats those as two different inflation stories.

Oil markets are making headlines again.

But short-term events don’t always reflect what’s driving long-term wealth.

There’s an investment few people talk about that has delivered powerful compounding over time - regardless of the noise.

Discover the details

SpaceX (SPCX) worked.

The company raised $75 billion at $135 per share, opened at $150, reached as high as $176, and closed at $160.95.

Its valuation now exceeds $2 trillion.

That matters because SpaceX entered public markets after reporting losses of roughly $8.7 billion over the fifteen months through March.

Investors bought it anyway.

The message is simple.

Public markets are still willing to fund trillion-dollar AI and infrastructure stories.

Anthropic and OpenAI now know the IPO window is open.

The demand was enormous. SpaceX perpetual futures traded near $176 before the opening bell. Institutional demand exceeded expectations. Retail demand was also strong despite receiving a smaller allocation than originally discussed.

The S&P exclusion remains important.

SpaceX can join the Nasdaq 100 within weeks. It must wait at least a year before entering the S&P 500.

That creates two very different passive ownership paths for the same company.

Capital Signal

SpaceX proved that public investors still want growth. The next AI IPOs now have their benchmark.

The asset climbed above $65,500 after spending part of last week below $60,000.

The move follows improving sentiment around both the Iran deal and SpaceX's successful debut.

But the structural challenges remain.

Spot bitcoin ETFs just recorded their largest weekly outflow since early 2025. BlackRock's IBIT posted its weakest week since launch.

The ETF bid that supported bitcoin through much of the past eighteen months remains weaker than before.

At the same time, capital continues flowing toward AI equities and private-market opportunities.

That rotation became obvious during the SpaceX offering.

The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq has recently turned sharply negative. Capital that once treated crypto as the highest-growth trade found another destination.

Strategy (MSTR) remains one of the few clear positive catalysts.

Michael Saylor resumed purchases earlier this month, reversing concerns created by the company's recent sale. But JPMorgan continues to argue that Strategy needs to rebuild liquidity before investors regain confidence.

The Verdict

Bitcoin benefited from peace and risk appetite. The ETF bid is still missing. Crypto needs its own catalyst, not just a better macro backdrop.

The CEO of this AI company (click here to get the name, 100% free) just issued a CODE RED in an internal memo… 

Warning his employees that they’re dealing with a critical situation. 

Another company executive even implied they might need a government bailout.

And now Jim Rickards is predicting this company is about to go bust, in a full-blown AI meltdown that could be 10 times bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Click here to see the details and learn how to prepare.

The war began on February 28.

The peace agreement is expected to be signed Friday.

Markets responded exactly as expected. Oil collapsed. Equities rallied. Bitcoin recovered.

SpaceX's debut delivered a second message.

The AI trade is still alive.

Now the focus shifts to the Fed.

Warsh enters Wednesday's meeting with oil falling, inflation easing at the margin, and a labor market that remains surprisingly strong.

The peace deal removed one source of pressure.

It did not settle the inflation debate.

That becomes the Fed's problem next.