Trump Doubts a Deal. Oil Holds Higher. Meta Doubles Down on AI. The Fed Stayed Divided.

The Dow fell 564 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 lost 0.4%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.1%.

Oil drove the session.

President Trump said he may no longer want a deal with Iran after declaring the ceasefire "over" earlier in the day. Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said negotiations had become "a waste of time" and added, "Let's just finish the job."

Following the statement, fresh U.S. strikes against Iranian military targets as Washington shifted from enforcing the ceasefire to active military pressure.

Energy stocks outperformed. ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) gained about 1%. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) rose 3%.

Higher fuel costs pressured other sectors. Home Depot (HD) fell 2%. McDonald's (MCD) lost more than 1%. Booking Holdings (BKNG) dropped 4%. Airlines also moved lower.

The Fed then entered the picture.

Minutes from the June meeting showed officials split on the path ahead.

The Signal

The market is no longer trading the ceasefire. It is trading the cost of a longer conflict.

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Trump said he is no longer sure he wants a deal with Iran after renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, additional U.S. strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure.

The U.S. says Iran violated last month's agreement by attacking commercial shipping. Tehran says Washington violated the same agreement by challenging Iran's authority over traffic through Hormuz.

That leaves the world's most important oil shipping lane back at the center of global markets.

Brent held above $78 after Wednesday's surge while WTI remained near $74.

The supply picture is becoming harder to read.

The U.S. has already revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver. OPEC+ is still adding production. At the same time, shipping risk has returned.

Energy Signal

Oil is no longer reacting to headlines alone. It is pricing the possibility that the conflict lasts longer than markets expected.

Officials kept rates unchanged at the June meeting, but the discussion showed growing disagreement about what comes next.

Several policymakers believed inflation could continue falling without additional tightening.

Others argued inflation remained too broad and another rate increase may become necessary.

The minutes pointed to rising price pressure across transportation, airfares, petrochemicals and agricultural inputs. Services inflation outside housing also remained elevated.

Chair Kevin Warsh also removed forward guidance from the policy statement, continuing his preference to react to incoming data instead of precommitting to future moves.

Markets changed little after the release.

Futures continue pricing the possibility of another rate increase before year end.

Macro Signal

The committee is divided. Incoming inflation data now matters more than Fed guidance.

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Meta Platforms (META) announced plans to build its first Canadian data center, a 1 gigawatt AI campus in Alberta expected to cost about $9 billion.

The project becomes Meta's 33rd global data center and supports the company's plan to spend as much as $145 billion on capital expenditures this year.

Investors still want proof those investments produce new revenue.

Meta is already exploring AI cloud services alongside new subscription products and advertising tools.

Consumer demand also delivered another positive surprise.

Levi Strauss (LEVI) beat Wall Street expectations with revenue of $1.56 billion and raised both full year guidance and its dividend. Yet shares fell more than 5% after hours as investors focused on valuation rather than results.

The pattern is becoming familiar.

Markets are rewarding companies that exceed already high expectations, not simply companies that beat estimates.

Capital Signal

AI spending continues rising. Investors increasingly want returns instead of promises.

ETF demand continues improving, but the bigger story sits on-chain.

Santiment data shows Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2017. Ethereum exchange balances are at their lowest level since 2015.

Fewer coins on exchanges mean fewer tokens immediately available for sale.

That creates the possibility of a supply squeeze if demand improves later this year.

Regulation and technology are also moving.

Crypto companies are accelerating plans for post-quantum security after researchers suggested practical quantum attacks could arrive as early as 2029. Most major blockchains have not yet completed that transition.

The long term opportunity remains.

The short term challenge is unchanged.

Higher oil prices, higher yields and geopolitical risk continue competing with improving crypto fundamentals.

The Verdict

Macro pressure remains. Exchange supply keeps tightening. The next major move depends on which force wins first.

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Wednesday answered one important question.

The Fed is divided.

Markets answered another.

Oil has become the main input again.

Trump's comments and renewed military action pushed investors back toward energy and away from fuel sensitive sectors.

The AI investment cycle continues expanding through Meta's latest buildout, but investors want evidence that spending turns into earnings.

Crypto is sending a different signal.

ETF demand has stabilized. Exchange balances continue falling. Long term holders are still accumulating despite a difficult macro backdrop.

The market is no longer waiting for one catalyst.

It is watching three at once.

Iran, inflation and earnings will decide how the second half of July begins.