Trump Ends the Ceasefire. Oil Surges. Fed Minutes Today. Markets Reprice Risk.

President Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that the memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over." His comments followed overnight U.S. strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets after Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Iran responded with drones and ballistic missiles targeting U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Markets reacted immediately.

Futures sold hard. Brent crude jumped more than 6% to above $78 per barrel, its highest level since the ceasefire began. The VIX climbed 15%.

Asia followed lower.

South Korea's Kospi fell 5.35% and entered a bear market, down roughly 20% from its June 19 high. Samsung lost 6%. SK Hynix fell 2.45%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.11%.

At 2 p.m. ET, markets receive the June FOMC minutes.

The Signal

Two months of de-escalation disappeared overnight. Markets now have to price a higher oil path and a more difficult Fed path at the same time.

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Brent climbed 6% to roughly $78.50 while WTI rose above $74. Both benchmarks reached one month highs and erased weeks of declines that had pushed oil back near prewar levels.

The move started before the strikes.

The Treasury Department revoked Iran's sanctions waiver Tuesday, ending Tehran's ability to sell oil legally under the temporary agreement. Hours later, the U.S. launched its strikes.

The physical backdrop is tighter than it was during previous flare ups.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983 after twelve consecutive weekly drawdowns. Iran continues demanding control over commercial traffic through Hormuz while calling the U.S. strikes a violation of last month's memorandum.

OPEC+ still plans to raise August production by 188,000 barrels per day. More supply is coming. The question is whether ships can move safely enough to deliver it.

Energy Signal

The ceasefire removed the war premium. Its collapse brought it back. Tight inventories make this reset more durable.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.58%, its highest level in a month. The 2-year rose to 4.23%. German bunds reached 3.07% while U.K. and Italian government bond yields also moved sharply higher.

Markets quickly repriced the Fed.

July hike odds climbed from about 27% to nearly 36%, reversing much of last week's payrolls driven optimism.

Gold fell 2.4% to about $4,057 as the stronger dollar offset demand for safe havens. The DXY rose to around 101.20.

Inflation expectations are moving higher as well.

The New York Fed's June survey showed one year inflation expectations rising to 3.7%, the highest since September 2023. Three year expectations climbed to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022.

Today's FOMC minutes now carry more weight than expected. Investors want to know how concerned policymakers already were about inflation before oil surged again.

Macro Signal

Last week's payrolls gave the Fed room to wait. This week's oil shock is taking some of that room away.

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Higher yields, higher oil prices and rising financing costs are all arriving before earnings season.

Amazon (AMZN) launched a $25 billion bond offering Tuesday, its second major AI financing this year. Combined debt across the six largest AI hyperscalers now exceeds $460 billion, with about $100 billion issued during 2026. Existing AI bonds weakened as investors made room for the new deal.

SK Hynix completed bookbuilding for its roughly $28 billion Nasdaq ADR ahead of Friday's listing. Demand exceeded available shares several times over.

The rotation inside AI continues.

Nvidia (NVDA) has lost roughly $1 trillion in market value since May and now trades at about 18 times forward earnings, its lowest valuation since early 2019. Meanwhile Micron Technology (MU) remains up roughly 229% this year as investors continue favoring memory.

Two other developments stood out.

Apple (AAPL) committed $30 billion to U.S. made chips from Broadcom (AVGO) over the next five years. The Commerce Department also cleared a broader rollout of OpenAI's GPT-5.6, with a public launch expected Thursday.

Capital Signal

The AI buildout continues. Investors are becoming far more selective about which parts of the supply chain deserve new capital.

The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly fell to $61,836 before recovering near $62,650. Ether, XRP and Solana also declined but avoided broader liquidation.

ETF demand continued improving.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight day of inflows. BlackRock (BLK)'s IBIT led with $54.8 million. Total Bitcoin ETF assets recovered to $77.26 billion from a June 30 low near $71 billion.

Corporate adoption also continued.

Japan's SBI VC Trade surpassed two million registered accounts as companies looked for alternatives to a weakening yen.

Regulation moved in opposite directions.

Kraken is pursuing a banking license in Lithuania while India's central bank renewed its push for tighter restrictions on crypto exposure.

The Verdict

Bitcoin held together despite the geopolitical shock. ETF demand is improving. Rising yields remain the larger headwind.

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Markets spent the past two months pricing a gradual return to stability.

That assumption broke overnight.

Oil surged. Bond yields climbed. Inflation fears returned. Risk assets moved lower.

Every major theme now runs through the same question.

Will higher energy prices prove temporary, or will they force the Fed back toward a more hawkish path?

Today's FOMC minutes arrive against a very different backdrop than policymakers expected only a few weeks ago.

The market spent weeks pricing peace.

Today it has to decide how much renewed conflict is worth.