Warsh Takes the Oath. OpenAI Files Today. SpaceX Postponed. Bitcoin's Volatility Hit a Seven-Month Low.

The Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time Thursday, gaining 276 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.17%. The Nasdaq added 0.09%. The week’s volatility, a three-day losing streak followed by a two-day recovery, compressed into a small weekly gain.

The tension is clear. Walmart (WMT) reported its first same-store sales growth in five quarters, then warned that lower-income consumers are pulling back on fuel. The AI trade is still intact. The consumer trade is cracking.

Brent rose back toward $105 despite diplomatic progress. WTI climbed above $98. U.S.-Iran talks are closer, but Iran’s Supreme Leader directed that enriched uranium must remain inside the country. That conflicts with Washington’s core demand. Rubio also said any Hormuz tolling system would be unacceptable.

The 10-year yield eased to 4.554%. Markets close early at 2 p.m. Eastern for Memorial Day weekend.

Warsh is sworn in at 11 a.m. Waller speaks at 10 a.m. OpenAI is expected to file today. SpaceX may retry Starship V3 after a hydraulic pin postponed Thursday’s launch.

The Signal

AI is intact. The consumer is weakening. Iran is unresolved. A new Fed chair takes the oath. All four meet today.

The CEO of this AI company (click here to get the name, 100% free) just issued a CODE RED in an internal memo… 

Warning his employees that they’re dealing with a critical situation.

Another company executive even implied they might need a government bailout.

And now Jim Rickards is predicting this company is about to go bust, in a full-blown AI meltdown that could be 10 times bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Click here to see the details and learn how to prepare.

Both sides signaled progress Thursday. Rubio cited “good signs.” Iran said the latest U.S. proposal narrowed gaps. Pakistan’s army chief traveled to Tehran. Trump said he can wait “a few days.”

Then Iran’s Supreme Leader said enriched uranium stays inside Iran. That is the condition Washington calls non-negotiable.

The Hormuz toll issue is also unresolved. Iran and Oman have discussed a payment mechanism for ships passing through the Strait. Rubio said no one supports tolls. Trump said the waterway should be free. Iran sees Hormuz as a sovereign territory subject to its rules.

That is why oil rose despite better headlines. Brent is set for a weekly decline on diplomacy, but it remains above $100. The inventory system is drawing fast as Memorial Day starts peak U.S. driving season.

Energy Signal

Talks are closer. The structural gaps remain. Oil knows the difference.

He inherits a difficult setup. Economists now see Q2 PCE inflation at 3.9%, up from 3.6% last month. Core PCE is expected to stay above 3% through year-end. Forecasters are now split on whether the Fed cuts at all in December. At the start of the year, markets expected two cuts.

The pressure is already in the real economy. Mortgage rates hit 6.51%, a nine-month high. A buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $384,000 home at 6.5%, compared with $400,000 at 6%. Gasoline is still above $4.50 nationally heading into Memorial Day weekend.

Warsh was selected with rate cuts in mind. The data now points the other way. His first meeting is June 16-17. His first major decision is whether his dot in the Summary of Economic Projections shows cuts, holds, or hikes.

Waller speaks one hour before Warsh takes the oath. Any move toward hike language would hit bonds before the ceremony starts.

Macro Signal

Warsh inherits 3.9% PCE forecasts, 6.51% mortgage rates, and a divided Fed. The debate starts before the oath ends.

Elon has reportedly filed to take SpaceX Public... in an IPO that's expected to hit a $1.75 trillion valuation.

The biggest in Wall Street history...

And you know who's going to make all the money? The banks brokering the deal. The hedge fund managers. The billionaire insiders. The same "already rich" 1%'ers.

After the IPO, everyone else will be left fighting over scraps.

That's why I'm leveling the playing field.

Click here to claim your Pre-IPO SpaceX "Access Code"

The filing could be the most important tech document since Facebook’s 2012 S-1. OpenAI is valued above $850 billion, generates roughly $2 billion in monthly revenue, and has spending commitments approaching $600 billion through 2030. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are working on the filing.

SpaceX postponed Starship V3 Thursday after a hydraulic pin malfunction. The company may try again today. The delay matters because Starship is the biggest pre-IPO risk factor in the S-1. The filing showed xAI generated $818 million in Q1 revenue against a $2.47 billion operating loss. Grok is used by only 21% of X monthly active users and holds just 1.9% of the U.S. business AI market.

SoftBank gained $61 billion in market value over two days on OpenAI IPO momentum and Nvidia’s earnings. It has invested $44 billion in OpenAI and committed another $20 billion.

The AI IPO cycle now has three tracks: SpaceX targeting $1.75 trillion, OpenAI filing above $850 billion, and Anthropic discussing a $900 billion valuation. Public markets are being asked to absorb near-$4 trillion in AI-linked private value while the 30-year yield sits above 5%.

Workday (WDAY) surged 14% after stronger results and higher margin guidance. Agentic AI revenue is nearing $500 million annually. That matters because enterprise software is splitting: companies with real AI revenue are being rewarded. Companies with AI demos are not.

Quantum names also surged after $2 billion in federal grants and equity stakes. International Business Machines (IBM) received $1 billion for a quantum foundry. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Infleqtion (INFQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) jumped more than 30%.

Capital Signal

OpenAI files. SpaceX may launch. Warsh takes the oath. The AI IPO cycle is open.

That matters. It shows less panic, but also less momentum. Bitcoin remains range-bound between $75,000 and $78,000. The 200-day moving average near $81,000 is still resistance.

Strategy (MSTR) has bought 171,238 BTC in 2026, nearly three times the 63,450 BTC mined over the same period. That creates a structural floor. But ETF flows are moving the other way. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost another $100.9 million, taking the week’s outflows above $1.4 billion.

XRP-linked products attracted about $42 million over the past week, while bitcoin and ether funds lost assets. That looks like selective risk appetite, not a broad crypto recovery.

OpenAI’s IPO adds a new capital competition problem. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could absorb enormous institutional attention. SpaceX also holds 18,712 BTC, which becomes a public balance-sheet line item if the IPO closes. That is long-term validation but short-term competition.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is calm, not strong. Volatility is low. ETF outflows continue. The structural bid remains. The breakout still needs macro relief.

The 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever aren’t just plays for the next quarter - they’re built to deliver for decades. 

These are blue-chip companies with fortress balance sheets, elite dividend track records, and the staying power to outperform in bull and bear markets alike. 

Some are Dividend Kings, others are on the path there, and all are proven wealth compounding machines. 

Download the full list now - before it disappears behind the paywall.

Friday closes the week and opens the next cycle.

Warsh takes the oath. Waller speaks. OpenAI files. SpaceX may launch. Markets close early.

The S&P is on track for its eighth weekly gain despite a three-day selloff, 5% long bonds, hawkish Fed minutes, Walmart’s consumer warning, and Nvidia falling after another blowout quarter.

That is the paradox. AI demand is real. Financing it is getting more expensive. Every data center, chip order, power contract, and satellite costs more when oil is above $100 and the 30-year is above 5%.

Bitcoin is quiet at 38% implied volatility.

The market is not panicking.

It is waiting.