Washington Struck Iran Again. Iran Called Hormuz Closed. Oil Jumped 4%. CPI Lands Tomorrow.

The U.S. launched multiple strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel caught fire and one crew member remains missing. Iran responded with attacks on U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman before declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Washington rejected that claim.

President Trump said commercial shipping remains open through the waterway. Tehran says it is closed. Markets now have to price both versions until tanker traffic provides the answer.

Futures moved lower.

Dow futures fell 229 points, or 0.43%. S&P 500 futures lost 0.58%. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.37% as semiconductor stocks again led the decline.

The week now shifts from geopolitics to economics.

June CPI arrives Tuesday morning alongside earnings from JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. June PPI follows Wednesday. Retail sales, jobless claims, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) earnings, and Netflix (NFLX) results arrive Thursday.

The Signal

A war shock and an inflation report now land inside the same 24 hours. Markets must decide whether supply or demand matters more.

The SpaceX IPO is officially the largest IPO of all time – setting records by raising a total of $85.7 billion and making Elon Musk a trillionaire.  But the excitement over IPOs doesn’t stop with SpaceX – and we’ve identified six more IPOs to watch as we head into the second half of the year.

These IPO candidates have been identified by our analysts as being positioned at the front of the next wave of IPOs. We compiled the data into a report for you:  

The Seven Hottest IPOs On Wall Street’s 2026 Watchlist 

The report is free for a limited time.

Download your copy today

Brent climbed 4.1% to $79.14 while WTI rose 4.2% toward $74.40. The rally erased much of the decline that followed last month's ceasefire.

Shipping tells the bigger story.

Only 13 tankers crossed Hormuz on Wednesday compared with roughly 33 per day the previous week. Lloyd's List Intelligence reports no major vessel has used the U.S.-protected Omani corridor while broadcasting its position since Tuesday.

That matters more than official statements.

Around one-fifth of global seaborne crude passes through Hormuz. If shipowners refuse to transit the route, the market will continue pricing a supply premium regardless of political messaging.

Energy Signal

The market is no longer reacting only to headlines. It is reacting to fewer ships moving through the world's most important energy corridor.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 4.56%.

Higher oil argues for more inflation and higher yields. Rising geopolitical risk supports demand for Treasurys and lower yields. So far, neither side has won.

Tuesday's CPI should help settle the debate.

Economists expect headline CPI to slow to 3.8% from 4.2% in May. Producer prices arrive Wednesday with expectations near 6.2%.

Warsh then takes center stage.

A softer inflation print would support patience. A hotter report combined with higher oil prices strengthens the case for another rate hike later this year.

Gold remains firm near $4,140 as investors continue balancing inflation against geopolitical uncertainty.

Macro Signal

Last week's labor data softened the Fed story. This weekend's oil shock hardened it. CPI determines which narrative survives.

The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.

Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.

What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century. 

For the full story, click here.

The largest U.S. banks report Tuesday morning only minutes after CPI.

Their results will provide the first broad update on loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, and corporate activity after another quarter of elevated rates.

The AI trade faces another major test Thursday.

TSMC (TSM) reports after forecasting second-quarter revenue between $39 billion and $40.2 billion with gross margins above 65%. Investors will focus less on earnings and more on advanced CoWoS packaging capacity, now viewed as one of AI's biggest supply constraints.

That explains why chips are leading futures lower.

Semiconductors remain the market's highest-beta AI trade.

The rotation inside AI also continues.

Micron remains up roughly 229% this year while Nvidia is still well below its May peak despite remaining one of the market's largest companies.

Capital Signal

Banks will show the health of today's economy. TSMC will show the capacity behind tomorrow's AI economy.

The world's largest cryptocurrency traded near $64,000 through the weekend despite renewed military strikes and higher oil prices.

Flows remain the larger story.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost more than $4.1 billion during June, the weakest month since launch. Galaxy Research estimates roughly $6.35 billion of net outflows over the past 30 days. Friday extended that losing streak.

Corporate activity also remains in focus.

Strategy (MSTR) recently sold $216 million of bitcoin while keeping its broader $1.25 billion capital authorization available.

One measure has improved.

The Coinbase Premium narrowed from roughly negative 150 at the beginning of July to around negative 40, suggesting U.S. spot demand is gradually recovering even while ETF investors continue selling.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is holding its range. ETF redemptions remain the biggest obstacle. Until flows improve, macro headlines matter less than institutional demand.

The CEO of this AI company (click here to get the name, 100% free) just issued a CODE RED in an internal memo… 

Warning his employees that they’re dealing with a critical situation. 

Another company executive even implied they might need a government bailout.

And now Jim Rickards is predicting this company is about to go bust, in a full-blown AI meltdown that could be 10 times bigger than Lehman Brothers. 

Click here to see the details and learn how to prepare.

This week begins with two stories competing for control.

One comes from Hormuz.

The other comes from Washington.

Oil is rising because shipping has slowed. Inflation data now determines whether that higher energy cost changes the Fed's outlook.

The market faces its busiest stretch of the summer.

CPI. Five major bank earnings. Warsh's testimony. PPI. TSMC. Netflix.

The question is simple.

Can softer inflation offset higher oil, or has the market entered a new phase where geopolitics once again sets the price of risk?