Alphabet Shed $500 Billion | Intel Guided Low | Tehran Kept Quiet

The AI trade sold off by day and kept sliding after the bell.

The Nasdaq fell about 1.4% Thursday. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.3%, and the Dow about 0.25%. The Russell 2000 rose about 1%.

Alphabet lost about $500 billion of market value after a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell about 13%. KLA (KLAC), which guided above forecasts, rose about 5.5%.

Quanta Services raised every 2026 target after revenue grew 57%, and Quanta (PWR) gained about 4.7%. Caterpillar (CAT) posted a record backlog but held its outlook. It fell about 9%.

After the close, Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, below forecasts. Intel (INTC) traded about 18% lower after hours.

Amazon's cloud sales grew 39% to $46 billion, the fastest pace in nearly five years. Earnings of $1.89 a share missed forecasts. Amazon (AMZN) traded about 6% lower after hours, on top of a 4% drop in the session.

Raises Beat Backlogs

Investors paid for forecasts that went up and sold everything else. Quanta raised and rallied. Caterpillar held, Intel guided lower, and both sank. Even Amazon's fastest cloud growth in years could not cover a profit miss.

Oil erased a diplomacy dip. Ceasefire bets kept sliding.

U.S. crude fell almost 3% in the morning as hopes for talks with Tehran rose, then erased the drop to settle near $103. Tehran has received Vice President JD Vance's letter but has not replied, Iranian media said. It still insists on its seven conditions for talks.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed three tankers hit mines near Hormuz, and its navy separately claimed a mine strike in the strait. No vessel has been named, and the claims are unconfirmed.

Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 15 fell to about 53 cents from 58.5 cents. The Nov. 8 contract barely moved.

Risk Pushed Past the Midterms

The letter drew no reply, and oil ended the day where it started. The Nov. 8 contract held while the Nov. 15 contract slid. Bettors are placing the danger in the weeks after the midterms, not before them.

The economy ran hot, and bonds still found buyers.

GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, above forecasts. September PCE prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier, up from 3.4%, with core at 3.1%. Both matched forecasts. The 10-year yield fell about 5 basis points to near 4.99%.

Microsoft is seeking at least $25 billion in its first U.S. bond sale since 2017. The longest note could run 40 years. Microsoft (MSFT) generated $18.6 billion of free cash flow last quarter. It is choosing to borrow, not forced to.

The ECB held at 2.5% and said tighter financing was likely to weigh on inflation and growth. Christine Lagarde told reporters that hyperscaler borrowing was one factor behind higher yields. The ECB said earlier that she will step down on Feb. 7, 2027.

Polymarket's contract on Lagarde leaving in 2026 priced yes at 100 cents. Its rules count the announcement, not the exit.

Supply Sets the Long End

Growth beat and inflation rose as forecast, leaving the Fed's December decision open. The newer pressure on long yields is supply. Big Tech is turning its spending into long-dated debt, and a central banker just said so on the record.

Private money paid up for growth and slowed down on lending.

Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double its $22 billion mark in May. The raise was announced a day after Utah charged its founders. Kalshi says the round closed the week before.

Blue Owl raised a record $8.3 billion from institutions in the quarter. Blue Owl (OWL) rose almost 8%. Ares (ARES) took in $31 billion of commitments. It invested $34.8 billion, down from $41.7 billion a year ago.

DoorDash (DASH) agreed to buy Instacart (CART) for $65 a share, about $17 billion. Instacart trades about 12% below that price. The companies expect the deal to close in late 2027 or the first half of 2028.

Cash Easy, Deals Hard

Money is plentiful. Places to put it to work are not. Investors paid up for Kalshi's growth while Ares deployed less, and Instacart holders want a wide spread to wait on regulators.

The NYSE's owner is renting a crypto exchange's engine.

Intercontinental Exchange agreed to run a regulated U.S. retail market for Trade[XYZ]'s perpetual futures, which run on Hyperliquid. It is also investing in Trade[XYZ], on undisclosed terms. Regulators still have to approve it, and no launch date is set. The deal does not say how any fees would reach HYPE holders.

HYPE rose about 15% to near $92, just below its roughly $98 record. ICE (ICE) gained about 4.5%, and Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) about 23%.

Canton Strategic Holdings said tokenized versions of its shares could trade as early as Nov. 2. Because the company sponsors the tokens itself, it avoids the 30-day objection window. Canton Strategic (CNTN) was little changed.

Coinbase's third-quarter revenue held flat from the second quarter at $1.22 billion, down 35% from a year earlier. Most of its $719 million profit came from gains on crypto it holds. Its prediction markets passed $200 million in annualized revenue. Coinbase (COIN) slipped about 3% after hours.

Strategy (MSTR) booked $19.5 billion of net income on a $20.9 billion bitcoin gain. The stock fell about 3% after hours.

Bitcoin slid after the close to near $79,000, down almost 3%. About $11 billion of bitcoin options expire Friday.

Wall Street Rents the Engine

The token got the price jump, but the business belongs to the exchange. Coinbase and Strategy made their profits mostly from coins they hold, not from trading. Bitcoin's slide shows how quickly those gains can reverse.

Thursday split nearly everything in two.

AI spenders fell, and builders that raised their outlooks rose. Oil erased its diplomacy dip, and ceasefire bets kept sliding.

Growth beat and yields fell, while Microsoft lined up to borrow. Kalshi nearly doubled its value, and Ares put less money to work.

Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) report Friday, and the Bank of Japan decides. The market wants the raise, not just the backlog.