Alphabet Sold Stock to Pay for AI | Software Raised and Got Marked Down | Wall Street's Record-Keeper Went Onchain | GDP Lands Today

Thursday opens with the AI trade split down the middle.

Alphabet and Microsoft both spent less on AI than Wall Street expected, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.9%. Dow futures rose about 0.6%.

Alphabet (GOOGL) was indicated about 10% lower. Microsoft (MSFT) was indicated about 3% higher.

The harder hit landed on software.

ServiceNow guided next quarter's subscription growth to 22.5% to 23%, from 21%, and raised its AI target. ServiceNow (NOW) was still indicated about 18% lower. Fortinet (FTNT) raised its billings forecast for a third time and was quoted about 26% lower. Its gross margin came in below forecasts.

Deals face the same scrutiny. Marvell (MRVL) was quoted about 11% lower on reports it is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum (LITE), an $83 billion company. No deal has been announced.

The Signal

A raised forecast no longer protects a stock. Investors are reading past the headline to margins, cash and funding. Dow futures rose while the Nasdaq fell, so the selling is aimed at AI and software, not at stocks as a whole.

Washington sent two messages about Tehran in one night.

Oil slipped about 1% after reports that Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iran's security chief. The same night, regional allies were reportedly told to prepare for possible U.S. strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms. WTI traded near $101 and Brent near $114.

Prediction markets drew the same map. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 8 jumped 9 points to 81.5 cents. The Nov. 15 contract reached only 58.5 cents.

That gap is the trade. Traders price more risk in the single week of Nov. 9 to Nov. 15 than in the next ten days combined.

The majors are not betting on the price either. Shell (SHEL) will buy back $5 billion of stock over three months after adjusted earnings rose to $10.8 billion. TotalEnergies (TTE) earned $9.1 billion.

Energy Signal

Crude gave up about a dollar after the letter reports. The calendar kept the rest of the premium. The producers are handing much of the windfall back to shareholders.

The Fed's growth case gets its first check this morning.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that business investment was likely rising at about a double-digit pace, led by high tech. Hours later, the two biggest spenders came in light.

Microsoft's $45.2 billion of capital spending missed the $50.7 billion estimate. It blamed delayed third-party capacity and, for the same reason, trimmed its 2026 spending outlook to about $170 billion from about $175 billion. Alphabet also spent less than expected.

Bonds had already moved. The 2-year slipped to 4.731% while the 10-year jumped 5.2 basis points to 5.044%, its biggest rise since Sept. 28. Futures put December hike odds near 85%, up from 78%.

That is an unusual mix. Traders raised hike odds while the 2-year held steady. One reading: the long end wants more pay for inflation and supply risk.

GDP is expected near 3.1%. September PCE is expected at 3.7%, with core at 3.1%.

Macro Signal

Warsh leaned on investment to call the economy strong, and its biggest spenders just fell short of plan. Hot PCE keeps December live. Softer investment makes it a harder call.

The AI buildout now has a funding bill.

Alphabet spent $51 billion on capital projects last quarter and raised about $41 billion to pay for it. Free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion for a second straight quarter. Bond sales and $12.4 billion of new stock filled the gap.

For a company long seen as a cash machine, selling shares to build data centers is a change in posture.

Oracle (ORCL) went the other way. It capped new capital-markets funding at $20 billion through fiscal 2030, on top of $20 billion it already raised this year, and set a date for positive free cash flow. The stock jumped 10.6% Wednesday, adding about $42 billion of value.

Private money keeps chasing the buildout. TPG (TPG) is in talks to buy Elliott's UK data-center business for about $5 billion, reports say.

Capital Signal

Investors are pricing how AI gets paid for, not just how much gets spent. Oracle added $42 billion of value the day it limited what it will ask for. Public holders are getting choosier while private buyers keep writing checks.

Bitcoin slipped. Wall Street's plumbing started moving onchain anyway.

BTC traded near $80,000 after briefly breaking below it overnight. That sits under the roughly $81,300 average price ETF buyers paid, by Coinbase's research estimate. Spot bitcoin funds still took in about $137 million Wednesday, a third straight day of inflows.

The deeper story is DTCC.

The Depository Trust Company launched its tokenization service Wednesday. Eligible firms can convert DTC-held stocks, ETFs and Treasurys into tokens and back, with the same ownership rights. DTC holds more than $114 trillion in custody. Twenty firms signed on, including JPMorgan (JPM) and Citi (C).

The design matters. It runs on the Canton Network and DTCC's private Besu chain, tokens move only between registered wallets, and DTC keeps the official books.

Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) report after the close, both quoted about 2.5% lower.

Prediction markets could come up on that call. Utah filed 14 criminal counts against Kalshi and its co-founders, two days after the federal government sued the state. At Robinhood (HOOD), event-contract revenue already topped crypto revenue last quarter.

The Verdict

Tokenization is arriving on Wall Street's terms, with permissioned chains and DTC as recordkeeper. Bitcoin trades below what ETF buyers paid while ETF money keeps coming in. Tonight, Coinbase shows which trend its customers followed.

The biggest stories this morning ask the same question.

Who pays for AI?

Alphabet answered with bonds and new stock. It was indicated 10% lower.

Oracle capped what it will ask for. It added $42 billion in a day.

ServiceNow and Fortinet raised forecasts and were still marked down.

GDP shows this morning whether that spending still carries the economy. PCE shows whether inflation leaves the Fed room to wait.

Bitcoin sits just below what ETF buyers paid, while DTCC builds rails for everything else.

The market has stopped paying for the build alone.

Now it wants to see the bill.