AMD and Arista Guided Higher | Oracle's Stock and Bond Split | Binance Traced Its Theft to June

After the bell, two AI suppliers forecast more demand. Oracle showed what funding it costs.

AMD (AMD) reported record revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45%, as data center sales nearly doubled to $8.5 billion. It guided the fourth quarter to about $17 billion, above the roughly $16 billion analysts expected. The stock rose about 7% after hours, on top of a 3.7% gain in the session.

Arista (ANET) grew revenue 58.5% to $3.66 billion. It guided to $3.9 billion to $4 billion, above the roughly $3.6 billion expected, and rose more than 10% after hours.

Oracle (ORCL) rose about 6% to near $126 as tech shares rallied broadly. Late Monday it priced about $10 billion of stock at $116 and $10 billion of notes paying 7% to 8.65%. Its 6.85% bond due 2066 fell more than a point on the same day. The new notes add roughly $777 million a year of interest.

The S&P 500 rose about 0.4% and the Nasdaq about 0.8%, while the Dow slipped 0.4%.

Bigger Forecasts, Pricier Money

AMD and Arista both forecast more than analysts expected. Oracle's new notes pay up to 8.65%. Their forecasts say spending on the build-out is still climbing, and the money behind it does not come cheap.

The bets settled on a strike. Crude still fell.

Polymarket has now settled ten of its U.S.-Iran ceasefire contracts as "No" after the Qeshm Island strike. That is four more than on Monday night. The Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 contracts are still disputed, and both trade above 80 cents.

Brent swung more than $6 on competing reports of progress, some later disputed. It settled at $103.60, down about 1%. U.S. crude settled at $96.09, down 0.4%.

Tehran sounded less settled than the price. Qatar said both sides are reviewing proposals. Iran's top security official said Washington's response to its demands "was not convincing." U.S. officials were also reported to have strike plans ready as early as Wednesday.

Settled Bets, Unsettled Talks

The contracts asked whether a strike happened, and one did. Crude settled lower on a day of hopeful mediation reports. Tehran called Washington's answer unconvincing. One of those readings will have to give.

The number said hot. The Labor Department said little changed.

Employers listed 7.52 million openings in September, up 333,000. Forecasts were near 7.1 million. The bureau's own summary called openings little changed. About a third of the rise came from state and local government outside education. The hires rate barely moved, at 3.4%. Factory orders rose 1.8%, above forecasts.

Kalshi's December hike contract traded near 74 cents in the afternoon. Prediction markets had put the odds near 70% on Monday. The 10-year yield rose about 6 basis points to near 4.95%. Homebuilders gave back most of Monday's rally, and D.R. Horton (DHI) fell about 5%.

A Hot Headline, a Flat Report

Hike odds and yields rose on the day of a report its own author called flat. Yields were already edging up before the release, so the data may have fed a move rather than started it. Friday's payrolls are the bigger test for a December hike.

Apollo's lending hit a record. Its flagship private equity strategy marked down.

Apollo (APO) originated a record $114 billion of assets in the third quarter. It took in $53 billion. Its flagship private equity strategy posted a gross return of negative 2.6% for the same quarter. The stock fell about 5%. Apollo posted a $1.1 billion GAAP loss, tied mainly to marks at its insurer, Athene. Adjusted earnings were $2.07 a share, against $2.20 expected.

I Squared Capital closed an infrastructure credit fund above $2.4 billion. That's more than four times its last one.

Carlyle (CG) and PAI Partners agreed to sell women's health drugmaker Theramex to Cinven. The deal was reported at about €2.6 billion. Cinven is reported to be asking banks for about €1.5 billion of debt. The sellers did not disclose terms.

Credit Paid, Equity Marked

At Apollo, credit brought the money and the fees. The flagship equity strategy took the markdown, though a hybrid value strategy gained 4.7%. Theramex shows sponsors can still sell to each other, and the reported bank request is the next test.

The theft hit on Oct. 29. Binance says the campaign behind it began in June.

Binance's first detailed account traces the attack to June. A wallet engineer downloaded a tampered installer for an AI coding tool. The attackers' on-chain permissions ran outside the withdrawal system, so a pause could not stop every transfer.

Binance says 98% of affected tokens are replenished. About $2.85 billion is frozen or intercepted. Customers pulled $10.97 billion in the 46 hours after reopening, according to data from co-CEO Richard Teng. Net outflows were $5.28 billion. In one hourly reading early Tuesday, deposits topped withdrawals. The next reserve snapshot is due Wednesday.

Crypto stocks bounced harder than the coin. Coinbase (COIN) rose about 5.5% a day after a 52-week low. Circle (CRCL) gained about 4.4% and Strategy (MSTR) about 3.7%. Bitcoin rose about 1.3% to near $77,700, about 3% above Strategy's average cost.

The CFTC chairman said single-stock perpetual futures can begin trading Tuesday. Only exchanges registered with both the CFTC and the SEC qualify, and he named no venue.

A Timeline, Not an Audit

Binance traded a mystery for a timeline, and the timeline starts with a developer tool. The recovery numbers are its own and unchecked. Wednesday's snapshot is the first test anyone else can run.

Demand got a bigger forecast. Funding and diplomacy did not get easier.

AMD and Arista guided higher after the bell. Oracle's stock rose while one of its bonds fell. Ten contracts settled on a strike, and crude still fell.

Apollo's lending hit a record while its flagship marked down.

The vote count runs tonight. Binance's snapshot, Treasury's refunding, Circle, Qualcomm (QCOM) and Arm (ARM) follow Wednesday, and payrolls land Friday.

The market spent Tuesday pricing. Tonight it starts counting.