Bitcoin Holds $76K | The SEC Opens Tokenized Stocks | Yields Fall Below 5% | Tech Leads the Rebound

Wall Street took back Wednesday’s Fed losses as the two biggest pressure points eased.

The Dow rose 0.62%, the S&P 500 gained 1.14%, the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.

Technology led. Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) gained over 2%, Microsoft (MSFT) added 1.5%, Qualcomm (QCOM) rose 2%, and Intel (INTC) jumped 7.7%.

The bond market helped. The 10-year yield fell more than 8 basis points to about 4.94%, while the 2-year dropped to 4.67% and the 30-year fell to around 5.29%.

The Fed risk is not gone. Markets now price a 53.1% chance of another quarter-point hike in October, up from 27.2% a week ago.

Breadth also remains weak. Roughly half of S&P 500 stocks still trade below their 200-day moving averages.

The Signal

Stocks rallied because yields and oil fell, not because the Fed changed its message. October remains live, but Thursday showed risk assets can still move when the 10-year backs away from 5%.

Oil gave markets their second source of relief.

WTI settled at $101.91, while Brent fell to $104. WTI is still up more than 18% this month, but Saudi Arabia is finding another route for supply.

Ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port have increased to about 2.7 million barrels per day from 1.5 million in August. That helps replace some flows lost after the East-West pipeline was damaged.

Rapidan Energy estimates Saudi exports could still fall about 400,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. officials expect pipeline repairs to take days, while independent analysts warn they could take weeks or months.

The Strait also remains dangerous. More attacks could quickly reverse Thursday’s relief.

Energy Signal

Oil is falling because Saudi Arabia found more capacity through Hormuz. The supply problem is being managed, not solved.

The Fed tightened Wednesday. The bond market loosened Thursday.

The 10-year fell to about 4.94% after crossing above 5% earlier this week. That drop gave growth stocks room to rebound even though 16 of 18 Fed officials still expect another hike this year.

The labor market gives the Fed room to stay firm. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, below the 208,000 expected. Continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, their lowest since January 2024.

Housing is showing more strain. Total housing starts fell 2.6% in August to 1.275 million, while permits dropped 2.7% to 1.394 million. The average 30-year mortgage rate is near 6.95%.

The pressure is global too. Higher U.S. rates support the dollar and raise the local cost of oil and other dollar-priced goods abroad. They can also pull capital toward U.S. assets and make it harder for other central banks to ease.

Macro Signal

The Fed still has room to hike because jobs remain firm. Housing is showing where nearly 7% mortgages and higher yields are already doing the tightening.

AI demand keeps pushing against the higher-rate story.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expects the company to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as this year. Nvidia has projected about 70% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with revenue near $673 billion.

Huang previously said Nvidia shipped about 6 million Blackwell GPUs over four quarters. Demand now stretches across data centers, networking, robotics and national AI projects.

That helps explain Thursday’s tech rebound. Investors are still willing to fund AI growth when yields fall, even after the Fed restarted its hiking cycle.

The safety debate remains open. Huang said unsafe AI products should be held back and improved, but he has resisted calls for broad new laws that could slow development.

Capital Signal

The Fed raised the cost of money. Nvidia is still preparing to double chip sales. The AI trade now depends on whether growth can keep outrunning that higher cost.

Bitcoin barely moved on the Fed. Regulation moved much faster.

Bitcoin traded near $76,300 Thursday, while Ether held around $2,430. BNB gained about 2% to $724, Solana rose 3.3% to just above $100, and XRP gained 2% to $1.29.

The larger catalyst came from the SEC.

Just two days after CLARITY failed, the agency created a five-year Innovation Exemption for tokenized U.S. stocks. Approved platforms can offer blockchain versions of public shares if token holders receive the same dividends and voting rights.

Companies can block tokenization of their stock. Platforms must notify issuers and wait 30 days before launch, while volume limits aim to control thin trading and volatility.

Crypto-linked stocks rallied. Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) each gained 5.8%, while Robinhood (HOOD) rose 5.2%.

Zcash remained the outlier inside crypto. ZEC jumped as much as 23% to around $1,425 and is up roughly 160% over the past month after Paradigm disclosed its holdings and investment in the Zcash Open Development Lab.

About $373 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, while total crypto market value held near $2.63 trillion.

The Verdict

Congress failed to deliver CLARITY. Two days later, the SEC used existing powers to open a path toward tokenized stocks. Crypto regulation did not stop. It changed venues.

Thursday reversed the pressure without reversing the Fed.

The 10-year fell below 5%. Oil dropped toward $102. Tech rallied. Bitcoin held near $76,300.

But another Fed hike remains a live October risk, oil is still up more than 18% this month, and the broader stock market remains narrow.

Crypto got a different signal.

CLARITY failed in Congress, yet the SEC moved ahead with tokenized equities. Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood rallied as regulation shifted from legislation to agency action.

That is the connection.

Money is tighter, but capital is still moving. AI is building more chips. Saudi Arabia is finding new oil routes. Crypto firms are getting new market rails.

The Fed changed the price of capital.

It did not stop the build.