Bitcoin touched $81,300 as ETF inflows stretched to seven straight days. Oil eased as Iran and Oman discussed a temporary Hormuz framework. Stanley Druckenmiller attacked Treasury's bond buybacks, while July PCE and Nvidia earnings give markets two major tests today.
Wednesday opens with markets waiting on two numbers that could reset the week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.32% Tuesday to 7,677.28, the Nasdaq gained 0.66% to 26,151.30, and the Dow added 0.3% to 53,577.40 for its third straight gain. Chips recovered from Monday's selloff as yields eased.
Asia was more cautious. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 0.5% ahead of Nvidia's report.
July PCE lands this morning, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) after the close. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Friday, while the CLARITY Act faces a Senate vote September 15. Anthropic could also file its IPO prospectus within days.
The Signal
PCE sets the rate backdrop. Nvidia decides whether the AI trade can still justify the price investors are paying for it.
In January, Gold Touched Nearly $5,600 an Ounce. Today It's Around $4,100.
So the story's over, right?
Then explain this.
The metal is still leaving the vaults. Physical deliveries still running at levels the exchange rarely processed before. Central banks still buying. Dealers charging 30-40% premiums over paper price for real coins.
When price falls but physical demand doesn't — only one of those two is telling the truth.
The paper market sets the price. The physical market sets the deadline.
Anyone who wished they'd bought miners before January's run just got handed the entry back.
One company I've been tracking controls an 88 million ounce deposit — trading near $4 billion. About 1% of the value of its metal in the ground.
That gap is the whole opportunity.
Oil is trading a possible Hormuz breakthrough before one actually exists.
Brent moved toward $91 and WTI fell to about $84.60 after Iran and Oman discussed an interim framework for a temporary maritime corridor and mine-clearing project through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also said the U.S. Navy has cleared all mines from international waters. That claim has not been confirmed by traffic data. The Iran-Oman talks also remain separate from any direct U.S.-Iran agreement.
The decline follows Monday's sanctions rollout, which proved less severe than oil traders feared. Markets are now pricing a shift from military escalation toward economic pressure and a possible shipping deal.
That can remove some risk premium. It cannot reopen Hormuz by itself.
Energy Signal
Oil is pricing progress before ships confirm it. An Iran-Oman framework lowers the temperature, but verified traffic through Hormuz remains the real test.
Treasury's bond strategy now has a public critic who helped shape the man running it.
Stanley Druckenmiller attacked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded long-bond buybacks, arguing that governments trying to defend prices against fundamentals eventually lose. Treasury plans to double some long-bond repurchases to at least $4 billion per operation while federal debt sits above $40 trillion.
The bond market has already tested that argument. Treasury's announcement pushed long yields lower for one session before much of the move reversed.
Now inflation gets a vote. July PCE lands at 8:30 a.m., with headline inflation expected near 3.6% year over year and core near 3.3%. The number will shape the setup for Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday.
Trade adds another pressure point. Canada announced tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods starting September 8 after Washington imposed 50% duties on Canadian autos and dairy.
Macro Signal
Bessent wants to ease pressure at the long end. Druckenmiller says fundamentals will win. PCE decides whether inflation gives bond sellers another reason to agree.
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
Nvidia reports tonight, but the size of the AI bet is already getting larger.
Anthropic is pitching investors on a $30 trillion addressable market as it prepares to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation near $2 trillion. Its prospectus could arrive within days, with a listing possible as early as September.
That would exceed SpaceX's (SPCX) June offering, when it raised $86 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation.
The comparison makes Nvidia's report more important. Wall Street expects roughly $92 billion in quarterly revenue, nearly double a year earlier. Nvidia has beaten EPS estimates in 20 of its past 22 quarters, so another headline beat alone may not be enough.
Guidance is the real test. Investors need evidence that data-center demand and AI spending can keep growing fast enough to support the capital now being raised around them.
Capital Signal
Anthropic is selling the size of tomorrow's AI market. Nvidia has to show how quickly today's revenue is catching up.
Bitcoin crossed $81,000, and this leg looks less dependent on forced buying.
BTC touched about $81,300 overnight before easing toward $79,000. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth straight inflow day Monday, adding $337.56 million. ETF assets climbed to $98.56 billion from $78.67 billion a week earlier.
That changes the structure of the rally. Short liquidations helped bitcoin break out last week. Six straight days of ETF inflows show buyers stayed after the squeeze.
Coinbase (COIN) is pushing the blockchain story beyond crypto. The company launched tokenized U.S. stocks on Base, including tokens tied to Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL). Each is backed one-to-one by shares held in a bankruptcy-remote trust, with Chainlink providing price data.
The speculative side is hotter. Traders placed a $2.9 million bet on bitcoin clearing $82,000 by Friday, while memecoins have surged. Roughly $6.4 billion in bitcoin options also expire Friday, with heavy interest around the $80,000 strike.
The Verdict
ETF flows are giving the rally a stronger base. Options and memecoins show speculation is catching up fast. Holding $80,000 after Friday's expiry matters more than touching $81,000 before it.
Could This Stock Be “Trump’s Next Big Buy”?
Jim Rickards believes the Trump administration is about to take a direct stake in a tiny $2 stock.
The Trump administration has taken a direct stake in MP Materials, Lithium America, Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth.
Each time, shares sprinted higher. Click here to see why Jim believes this one is next.
Wednesday puts three market stories through the same test.
Treasury says its buybacks support liquidity, but long yields have resisted. Bitcoin bulls say the move above $80,000 reflects real demand, and seven straight ETF inflow days give them evidence. Anthropic says AI can support a $30 trillion market, but Nvidia has to provide the revenue trail.
PCE comes first. Nvidia follows after the close. Warsh gets the final word Friday.
Oil has already moved ahead of confirmation, pricing an Iran-Oman framework before Hormuz fully reopens. Bitcoin has done something similar, pricing easier liquidity and better policy before either is settled.
Nvidia does not get that luxury tonight.
At roughly $92 billion of expected quarterly revenue, another beat is almost assumed. The question is whether guidance makes the next wave of AI spending look like investment or excess.
Tonight, Nvidia has to turn the AI promise back into numbers.
