Brazil's Trade Came Apart | Oil Eased on Tehran Talks | Bain Would Stay In Below Its Own Price | Bitcoin Slipped Under $80,000

Brazil's election trade unwound overnight, and U.S. futures barely noticed.

Prediction markets had Flávio Bolsonaro at 82 cents on Sunday afternoon. By midnight he was at zero. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, about 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro has not conceded and says he will seek an annulment.

Brazil's election trade took three weeks to build and came apart in one night. Brazilian stocks had risen almost 7% and the real nearly 5% since the first round. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) was quoted about 25% lower in premarket trading. Nu Holdings (NU) was down about 27%, Petrobras (PBR) about 21% and MercadoLibre (MELI) about 14%.

S&P 500 futures rose about 0.15%. Musk said SpaceX closed $40 billion of debt to buy AI chips and said many neoclouds face "guppy-level death." SpaceX (SPCX) has filed no terms. CoreWeave (CRWV) was down about 3.5% before the open, and Nebius (NBIS) about 2%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) report Wednesday, Amazon (AMZN) Thursday.

The Anchor Was the First Round

A surprise that traders had built into prices came undone in one night. Both venues held Bolsonaro near 82 cents while the polls showed a tie, and the dollar trade rode the same bet. The quoted drop in EWZ is now about twice the size of the rally it erased. The repricing points to a fiscal path traders had stopped expecting.

Oil eased as regional envoys reached Tehran, but Iran said Hormuz will not go back to the old rules.

Oil fell as Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish delegations arrived in Tehran. Brent traded near $115, down about 1.5% from Friday's settlement at its highest close since April. Iran's foreign minister said the strait will not "be managed as it was in the past." The Houthis claimed a strike on Riyadh's airport, which has not been confirmed.

Polymarket's Oct. 31 Iran ceasefire contract fell sharply Sunday evening, then recovered in full. No cause has been established.

Galp raised its 2026 profit outlook by a quarter, and its shares fell 9%. It lifted its Brent assumption to $90 from $80 and ended refining merger talks with Moeve. SABIC returned to profit through margins as shipping disruption cut its volumes. Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) report Friday.

Peace Is Priced, the Strait Isn't

Monday split the oil premium into two parts. Diplomacy may be shrinking the chance of renewed fighting, and the near-term ceasefire contracts recovered fast. Tehran's statement on Hormuz is about the strait's future, which no truce settles. Producers are booking war margins now, and Galp's new guidance assumes they stay elevated.

The Fed's Wednesday decision looks settled. December is the real bet.

Prediction markets agree the Fed holds on Wednesday. Polymarket priced a hold at 94.5 cents, and Kalshi's hike contract traded at 6 cents. For December, Polymarket priced a hike near 76.5 cents and Kalshi near 79, above the roughly 73% implied by swaps.

France escaped a Moody's downgrade, and its bonds rallied. The 10-year yield fell 5 basis points after rising above 5% last week, a first since 2002. The Aa3 rating assumes a 2027 budget that has not passed. Gilts go into Wednesday's U.K. budget priced for discipline, with the 10-year near 5.33% Friday.

The Hawks Moved Out to December

The Fed debate has moved from this week to the next meeting. Both betting venues price a December hike a few points above swaps. A hold Wednesday would change little on its own, so the statement's language in December carries the weight. Oil above $100 keeps the inflation case alive even as Brent eases.

A buyout firm may stay in below its own old price, and sovereign money moved up the queue.

Bain is said to be staying in Surgery Partners at a price below its own 2025 offer. Bon Secours Mercy Health is in late-stage talks to buy a majority at about $20 a share, the Financial Times reported. That is 27% above Friday's close and about 22% below Bain's $25.75 proposal. Surgery Partners (SGRY) was quoted near $19.50 before the open.

Ingenia has a new suitor backed by a sovereign wealth fund. AVID offered A$5.35 a security, and Warburg Pincus lost its data-room access. Alpha Dhabi committed $1 billion to Alpha Wave's next AI fund, partly from the last fund's payouts.

Australia's regulator halted a A$573 million mortgage fund, at least its third interim order on a private credit product this month.

Patient Money Sets the Price

The buyers with the longest horizons are setting terms this week. A health system and a sovereign-backed bidder brought the capital, and Bain may roll rather than sell below its old mark. Retail private credit in Australia is losing the benefit of the doubt. Money that does not need to exit can pay less and wait longer.

Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 again as gold went the other way.

Bitcoin fell about 2% to near $79,800 in Asian trading before recovering to about $80,200. It was the second test of $80,000 in three days, below the roughly $81,300 one estimate puts as spot fund holders' average cost. Gold traded near $4,030.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in a net $301.2 million last week, on provisional figures. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in about $565.7 million while the rest lost about $264.5 million. Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) were each down about 2% before the open. Both report Thursday.

Zcash's staking proposal lacks "broad support," Josh Swihart says. Grayscale's Zcash fund drew about $41.1 million, its first inflow in four weeks.

One Buyer, One Fund

Bitcoin's support has narrowed to a single product. IBIT took in more than the week's net, and the rest together saw outflows. With the price under holders' estimated cost, the next outflow lands on buyers already at a loss. Gold took back its round number on the same morning that bitcoin briefly lost its own.

Monday punished crowded bets and paid patient capital.

Brazil's favorite lost, and the trade built on him broke overnight. Oil eased on talks while Tehran kept the strait in question. Bain may stay below its old price, and bitcoin waited on the Fed with one fund doing the buying.