Ceasefire Cracked. AI Lost Another Week. Oil Stayed Below $72. Bitcoin Lost Its ETF Bid.

The United States launched airstrikes against Iran after President Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by sending four drones toward commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces intercepted three drones. One struck the Singapore flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely. U.S. Central Command later hit Iranian drone sites, missile storage facilities and coastal radar positions.

Markets barely reacted.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.24% to 25,297.62, its fifth straight decline. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,354.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 44.51 points to 51,876.11.

The week told the bigger story.

The Nasdaq lost 4.6%. The S&P 500 fell 2%. The Dow gained 0.6% as money rotated into healthcare, financials, utilities and consumer staples.

The AI trade is no longer setting the pace. Investors are asking who pays for the next phase.

The Signal

The ceasefire cracked. Markets barely moved. Capital kept leaving AI and chasing safety instead.

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Brent crude settled at $71.99, down 4.34%. WTI closed at $69.23, down 3.74%. Brent lost 10.9% for the week while WTI fell 9.6%.

The market is trading supply, not conflict.

Saudi Aramco resumed loading crude at Ras Tanura after nearly four months. Tankers continued leaving Hormuz despite Thursday's attack near Oman. Analysts now describe the market as facing possible oversupply rather than shortage.

The physical system is still incomplete.

The International Maritime Organization paused its evacuation effort after the latest attack. About 115 vessels and 2,500 seafarers have already left the Gulf, but more than 500 ships still remain. Roughly 80 mines continue blocking the main shipping lane while Oman, Iran and the United States negotiate security guarantees.

The military picture worsened.

The U.S. struck Iranian military targets after the Ever Lovely attack, raising new questions about whether last week's ceasefire can survive.

Energy Signal

Oil is pricing recovering supply. Diplomacy is becoming less certain. The market still believes barrels will keep moving.

Defensive sectors outperformed while AI and semiconductor stocks remained under pressure.

Healthcare led the market. Eli Lilly (LLY) gained 7%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose nearly 4%. AbbVie (ABBV) added more than 4%.

Technology kept falling.

Micron Technology (MU) dropped more than 6% despite this week's strong earnings. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) lost 2%. Intel (INTC) fell over 3%.

The concern is becoming financial rather than technical.

Oracle (ORCL) finished its worst week since 2001, falling 19%. Investors are now focused on financing. Oracle carries roughly $130 billion in debt, spent nearly $56 billion on capital expenditures last year, generated negative free cash flow of almost $24 billion and plans another $40 billion of financing in fiscal 2027.

The AI buildout continues.

The funding debate has arrived.

Macro Signal

Wall Street no longer questions AI demand. It is questioning how much debt companies need to build it.

Eric Fry was one of the first to say “Sell Nvidia.” Instead, he pointed to a little-known AI hardware company with almost no competition.

While Nvidia’s customers turn into rivals, hyperscalers are fighting to buy more from this firm — not replace it.

This week? A historic $6B deal and the biggest surge in two decades.

And Fry says this may only be the beginning.

Get the full story here.

OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 continued weighing on technology shares throughout the session. JPMorgan traders said investors are questioning whether AI infrastructure spending can continue without fresh public market capital.

SpaceX (SPCX) remains the reference point.

Its volatile post IPO trading has become the benchmark every private AI company is watching before listing.

The market is becoming more selective.

Companies with strong balance sheets continue attracting capital. Companies requiring heavy financing are facing tougher questions.

That shift now reaches beyond software.

It is affecting the entire AI infrastructure chain.

Capital Signal

The next phase of AI is not about demand. It is about funding. The market is rewarding balance sheets as much as technology.

Bitcoin briefly traded down to about $58,188 before recovering near $59,900. More than $1 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including roughly $842 million in long positions.

The institutional bid kept weakening.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $696 million Thursday. Weekly outflows exceeded $1.3 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for roughly $860 million. The industry is now on pace for a seventh straight week of net withdrawals.

The criticism is growing louder.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse argued Strategy (MSTR) has hurt confidence in crypto by relying too heavily on financial engineering. Strategy's STRC preferred shares remain roughly 25% below par as investors question dividend obligations and future funding capacity.

The options expiry may clear positioning.

The ETF story has not changed.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is no longer fighting only price. It is fighting the loss of institutional demand that supported the last cycle.

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Oil stayed below $72 even after U.S. strikes on Iran.

Technology finished another difficult week despite Micron proving AI demand remains strong.

The market is separating demand from financing.

Oracle showed the cost.

OpenAI showed the hesitation.

SpaceX showed the volatility.

Bitcoin showed what happens when institutional buyers become sellers instead of stabilizers.

The ceasefire now looks weaker than it did a week ago.

The AI investment cycle remains intact.

The financing behind it has become the market's biggest question.

Next week begins with investors watching the same three variables again.

Hormuz.

Inflation.

And whether capital returns to AI, or keeps looking elsewhere.