Chips Broke the Nasdaq | Oil Bounced After a Tanker Strike | The Hike Bet Blinked | Two Miners Stepped Back

Wednesday sold AI's builders. Thursday sold nearly all of AI, and the builders fell hardest.

The Nasdaq fell about 5.5% and closed in a correction. The semiconductor index lost about 12%, and the Dow gave back more than all of Wednesday's rally.

AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU) each lost about 17%. Nvidia (NVDA) fell too.

The day's clearest company news was about costs.

Qualcomm (QCOM) fell about 9.5% after it guided sales above forecasts and profit below them. It said costs are rising from wafers to memory.

Democrats who campaigned to curb data centers won Tuesday's governor's races in Texas, Georgia and Ohio. Those are pledges, not rules.

AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su spoke in an interview released before most of the selling. "I think the market can sometimes be a little bit short-sighted," she said.

AI's buyers held up better.

Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) each fell less than 4%. AppLovin (APP) rose about 31% after a strong quarter, and high-yield bonds barely moved.

The Signal

None of Thursday's reports cut an AI order. Chipmakers still fell several times as far as their customers. That fits a repricing of costs and permits, though crowded trades may explain some of it.

Oil rose after a tanker strike. The companies that pump it fell with the market.

Brent settled nearly 4% higher, above $98. U.K. maritime authorities reported a tanker struck by two projectiles off Qatar.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said ships on "unauthorized routes" hit mines or caught fire. That claim has not been verified.

Public producers didn't share the bounce. Exxon (XOM) lost about 2.4%.

ConocoPhillips (COP) beat forecasts and raised its dividend. It still slipped about 1%.

Private owners are slower.

An EnCap-led group is exploring a sale of a San Juan Basin oil producer, a report said. A deal could top $4 billion including debt, but the process would not start until early 2027.

Energy Signal

No single report can be shown to have caused the rebound. Public producers sold with the market, while the reported private sale would wait until 2027. Until shipping is clearer, the bounce reads as risk premium, not new profit.

The data showed a firm economy. The hike bet fell anyway.

U.S. jobless claims fell to 189,000, matching the lowest since 1969. Fed officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin backed gradual hikes.

The Bank of England raised its rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years, and one member wanted a bigger move. Unless the Middle East conflict ends, Governor Andrew Bailey said, the hike seems unlikely to be the last.

The rate bet went the other way.

Kalshi's December hike contract started the day near 80 cents. By the afternoon it had slid to about 66 cents as stocks fell and Treasury yields slipped.

One report did help the doves. Unit labor costs fell 0.7%, the first drop in more than a year.

Payrolls land Friday and consumer prices Tuesday.

Macro Signal

Low layoffs and hawkish central bankers would normally hold the bet up. Its slide began more than an hour after the data and tracked the stock selloff more closely than any report. Friday's payrolls would test which one it was pricing.

Zipline's round landed on a day public markets sold growth. Wendy's board called a private bid too low.

Zipline raised $1.5 billion at a $21.5 billion valuation, well above its price earlier this year. It also announced a national Walmart (WMT) deal for more drone-delivery sites.

It wasn't the only private price climbing.

Isomorphic Labs is in talks to raise money at about a $50 billion valuation, a report said.

Then there is Wendy's.

An independent committee at Wendy's (WEN) rejected the Trian-led group's $7.35-a-share cash proposal. It said the offer "substantially undervalues" the company.

The board adopted a one-year rights plan that triggers at 15%. The group already owns more than that, so the plan caps its buying without forcing a sale.

The stock rose nearly 4% and closed above the rejected bid.

Capital Signal

Zipline's round was negotiated before Thursday, so its price says little about that day. It still shows late-stage money paying for growth that public buyers were selling. Wendy's trading above a rejected bid fits holders pricing some chance of a better offer.

Bitcoin traded like a chip stock. Two miners stepped back from it.

Bitcoin fell about 5.6% to near $76,000, erasing Wednesday's rebound. Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Strategy (MSTR) each lost about 9% to 10%.

The miners moved too.

Keel Infrastructure (KEEL), formerly Bitfarms, sold its entire bitcoin treasury in the third quarter. With newly mined coins, its sales came to about $192 million.

It will now sell what it mines in Quebec each day, and its stock fell about 22%.

Core Scientific (CORZ) said it is converting its remaining mining sites to rent to data-center tenants. Management expects to exit bitcoin mining by year-end.

Wednesday's flows had shown a crack.

Funds were still net buyers on Wednesday, but the biggest one was selling. The largest fund (IBIT) lost $201 million, while Fidelity's (FBTC) took in more than that.

The Verdict

Bitcoin fell with the Nasdaq, and its own news did not explain the drop. Keel's sales came in the third quarter, but it will now sell what it mines every day. If more miners follow, fewer balance-sheet holders would be left for a risk-off day.

The AI selloff hit suppliers far harder than their customers. Crude bounced, and the companies that pump it didn't. Layoffs stayed low, and the hike bet still fell.

Zipline's price was set before the selloff it landed in. Bitcoin gave back its post-election gain, and one miner became a daily seller.

Friday's payrolls and Tuesday's consumer prices come next. No reported AI order changed Thursday. The expected cost of filling them did.