Congress Flipped, Futures Shrugged | Oil Ignored the Strike | Bonds Rallied, Hike Odds Rose | Crypto's Bill Got Harder

The market sold the AI build-out's permits. It is still deciding on the orders.

Democrats are projected to control both the House and the Senate after flipping seven Republican-held Senate seats. Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% and S&P 500 futures 1.4% as results came in. Both turned higher by early Wednesday.

Data-center operators IREN (IREN), Applied Digital (APLD), Nebius (NBIS) and CoreWeave (CRWV) traded lower premarket after Democrats won in Texas and Georgia, key data-center states facing local opposition to new sites. In Tokyo, the Nikkei fell as much as 4.8% intraday, led by chip suppliers.

The hardware makers' bounce is fading. AMD (AMD) traded near $487, less than 1% above Tuesday's close, after jumping about 7% overnight on its $17 billion fourth-quarter guide. Super Micro (SMCI) rose about 4% after revenue of $19.9 billion topped even the preliminary range it gave in October. Nvidia (NVDA) was little changed.

Goldman Sachs said before the vote that a Democratic Congress might limit data-center tax incentives but called a national moratorium unlikely.

Orders Up, Permits in Question

Demand for chips looks stronger, yet the morning didn't pay for it. The risk moved to where that hardware gets installed: the sites, the power and the tax breaks. In U.S. trading, the operators carried that political risk. Tokyo's chip suppliers did too.

Oil sits near a four-week low despite a confirmed U.S. strike.

Brent traded near $102 and U.S. crude near $95, both lower again. President Trump confirmed Tuesday's strike on Qeshm Island. Iran called the U.S. reply to its seven Hormuz conditions unconvincing and says a "maximum deterrence" plan is ready for any new attack. Qatar says both sides remain committed to talks.

Industry data showed U.S. crude stocks fell about 5.3 million barrels last week, against forecasts for a build.

Polymarket's disputed Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 ceasefire contracts jumped to about 99.85 cents, from about 92 and 90 cents late Tuesday. Traders are betting no qualifying strike landed before either deadline. The disputes are still open.

A Strike Without a Supply Shock

A confirmed strike, a rejected reply and a deterrence threat failed to lift crude. So did a surprise inventory draw. Oil appears to be pricing barrels that keep moving, not the headlines around them, and the war premium keeps leaking.

Bonds rallied. The rate market still priced a Fed hike.

The 10-year yield slipped about 3 basis points to near 4.92% overnight, giving back most of Tuesday's rise. The dollar index hit a one-month low near 101.2. Gold futures rose almost 3% to about $4,050, and silver gained more than 4%.

December hike odds rose anyway. Kalshi's December hike contract climbed to about 78 cents from 74, and futures pricing put the odds near 79%.

Prediction markets also beat the race-callers. Kalshi's Senate contract traded above 99 cents about an hour before the first projection, up from 74 cents earlier Tuesday. Polymarket's reached 99.95 cents. Neither has formally settled.

Today brings private payrolls, the Treasury's refunding plan and ISM services, forecast at 54.8.

Gridlock Is Not a Rate Cut

The long end appeared to price a Congress less likely to borrow more. The front end still priced a Fed that wants to hike in December. Gold rose as the dollar weakened. Today's refunding and Friday's payrolls could decide which side gives first.

Big money kept showing up. It just charged more.

Blackstone closed its fourth European senior direct lending fund and said it has raised about €13 billion of investable capital, including expected leverage, across that fund and related vehicles. It came days after a Partners Group fund met only about a third of exit requests.

Meta (META) was reported to have sold $15 billion of bonds on about $58 billion of orders. It paid yields from 5.85% to 7.53%, and its longest bond priced about 0.9 percentage point wider than a comparable April deal.

In Japan, state-backed JIC plans to sell chip-materials maker JSR to Mitsui Chemicals for possibly more than ¥1.3 trillion, about $8.2 billion, people familiar with the matter said. JIC paid about ¥900 billion two years ago. Mitsui Chemicals, worth about ¥750 billion beforehand, closed down 10%.

Plenty of Money, Pricier Terms

Institutions are still writing large checks into credit and AI. Meta paid up to borrow for 30 years, and Mitsui's shareholders appeared to balk at a bill bigger than their company. Money is easy to find. It just costs more.

Crypto's path through Congress narrowed. Its path through the agencies stayed open.

Bitcoin fell to about $75,700 as results came in, its lowest in several weeks, then recovered to near $78,000.

Crypto's market-structure bill, the Clarity Act, passed the House last year but failed a procedural Senate vote in September. TD Cowen said before the vote it would not expect passage within two years under Democratic control.

The agencies kept moving. SEC staff said Canton Coin is a "digital commodity" and won't recommend enforcement over its programmatic minting. It is the first such token-specific relief, and a staff view, not a ruling.

A group backed by Cboe (CBOE) and Citadel Securities sued the CFTC in Manhattan federal court, hours after the agency cleared single-stock perpetual futures. It argues the contracts belong under the SEC.

Circle (CRCL) said revenue and reserve income rose 17% to $865 million as average USDC in circulation grew 8% to $73.3 billion. Binance agreed to invest $100 million in Circle. Block (XYZ) agreed in principle to pay about $764 million to settle a Justice Department probe of its anti-money-laundering program, subject to court approval. Its shares rose more than 9% premarket.

From Statute to Staff Letters

The election made crypto's road through Congress much harder. What remains runs through staff letters, agency approvals and courtrooms, which a new Congress can investigate but not easily undo. Bitcoin's round trip suggests much of the sweep was already priced. The cost could show up later, in nominations and oversight.

Congress changed hands, and the tape barely flinched.

Data-center operators fell on permit risk, and AMD's overnight gain faded.

Bonds rallied while hike odds climbed.

Oil fell after a confirmed strike.

Crypto's bill got harder to pass, and a token got a staff letter.

Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin report after the close. Payrolls land Friday.

Control is decided. The bills come later.