CPI Tuesday, MSCI Wednesday. Bitcoin Sits on Strategy's Cost.

Crypto enters the week near two lines that matter.

Bitcoin traded near $76,000 Friday morning, about 2% below Monday's level. Strategy's average cost is $75,451. Bitcoin funds lost $430 million on Thursday, and the coin held steady overnight while Asian stocks fell.

Last week moved crypto's rulebook from Congress to the agencies and courts. This week brings dated tests. Inflation comes Tuesday, and MSCI's list follows Wednesday. Binance still owes a fresh proof of reserves.

Here are six questions for the week ahead.

Does Inflation Revive the Hike Bet?

What happens. The Labor Department reports October consumer prices. The Treasury also sells $125 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt this week.

When. Consumer prices land Tuesday, Nov. 10. The Fed decides Dec. 9.

What crypto prices in. A Fed that may not need to hike as much. Kalshi's December hike contract fell from about 80 cents to as low as 62 during Thursday's selloff. It traded near 70 cents early Friday. One-year inflation swaps fell to about 2.1% as oil slid.

Then payrolls rose 165,000 in October, far above forecasts near 60,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. Fed officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin backed gradual hikes last week. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan wants "at least two more."

What would change it. A hot reading on top of strong jobs would push the hike bet back toward 80 cents. Last week bitcoin traded with chip stocks, not with rates. A rate scare that also hits tech would hit both.

What to watch. Kalshi's December contract, the 10-year yield near 4.84% and bitcoin's moves against the Nasdaq. CoreWeave (CRWV) also reports this week.

Does the Biggest Fund Stop Selling?

What happens. Daily flows into U.S. spot bitcoin funds keep setting the tone.

When. Each trading day.

What crypto prices in. Steady exits. Funds lost more than $750 million on net from Monday through Thursday. Monday's $405.3 million exit from IBIT was its largest since June. On Wednesday, funds were net buyers while BlackRock's IBIT lost $201 million. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) then lost $105 million Thursday, its fifth straight outflow.

Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) took in $237 million Wednesday. It lost $200 million Thursday. Ether funds lost about $100 million Thursday.

What would change it. An inflow day at IBIT. It carried the fund bid in October and led the selling last week.

What to watch. IBIT's daily flow, and whether inflows show up on two straight days.

Does MSCI's List Name Strategy?

What happens. MSCI drew its line on bitcoin-treasury companies. "Non-operating companies" will be ineligible for its global indexes. MSCI's earlier test run flagged Strategy and Metaplanet.

When. MSCI posts its November review shortly after 11 p.m. Central European Time on Wednesday, Nov. 11. That is about 5 p.m. Eastern. Changes take effect at the Nov. 30 close.

What crypto prices in. Pressure on the treasury stocks. Strategy (MSTR) lost about 9% to 10% Thursday. Its last weekly update showed 811 bitcoin bought for $65.5 million. It spent $208.2 million on its own preferred stock.

What would change it. Current members leave only if they fail the test in each of their last two annual filings. That buffer could keep Strategy in for now. A removal would leave index funds as sellers of its stock, not of bitcoin.

What to watch. Strategy's stock against bitcoin, and bitcoin against $75,451.

Who Sells Into November?

What happens. Several holders are closer to selling than they were a month ago.

When. Trump Media's noteholders can demand cash on Monday, Nov. 30. Keel sells each day.

What crypto prices in. Some supply, not a flood. Trump Media's note collateral moved to Crypto.com hours after a record-low close. About 4,259 bitcoin went from wallets tied to the notes. Holders can ask for up to about $1 billion. Trump Media (DJT) closed at a record low of $4.49, far below the notes' conversion price near $34.72.

Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) now sells its Quebec output daily. Core Scientific (CORZ) expects to exit mining by year-end.

What would change it. A Trump Media funding plan that spares the bitcoin, or a sale from the collateral. The 18,270 stolen bitcoin from Binance are another overhang. They had not moved as of Nov. 1.

What to watch. Trump Media filings, its collateral wallets and the attacker's bitcoin.

Does Binance's Next Proof Close the Gap?

What happens. Binance owes customers a more current check. Its first proof covers 10 tokens on a snapshot dated Oct. 31, before withdrawals reopened.

When. Binance said it would take a broader snapshot Wednesday, Nov. 4. It says each full proof takes about 40 to 50 hours to build.

What crypto prices in. Partial trust. Customers pulled $10.97 billion in the first 46 hours, a net $5.28 billion. Binance now traces the theft to a tampered installer in June. It says 98% of affected tokens are replenished.

What would change it. A new proof that covers more tokens at a date after the reopening. A shortfall or a long delay would revive the outflows.

What to watch. Binance's net flows, the date on its next snapshot and how many tokens it covers.

Does USDC's New Supervisor Change the Trade?

What happens. Europe's banking regulator takes over supervision of USDC's reserves and capital. USDC is the first stablecoin the EU named "significant."

When. Thursday, Nov. 12.

What crypto prices in. Growth without much profit. Circle (CRCL) said average USDC in circulation rose 8% to $73.3 billion. Without a one-time $182 million token presale, revenue fell about 8%. Binance agreed to invest $100 million in Circle.

What would change it. Washington's rules now come from agencies and courts. SEC staff said a party able to "reverse transactions" may count as central control. A judge let single-stock perpetual futures keep trading while a suit backed by Cboe (CBOE) goes on. She found the group "likely to succeed."

Congress has stepped back. Stifel called the Clarity Act "off the table" for the lame-duck session. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is expected to chair Senate Banking in January, The Wall Street Journal reported.

What to watch. USDC's supply, Circle's shares and the next ruling in the perpetual futures case.