Intel Lost Nearly a Third | Binance Said It Will Repay in Kind | Refining Paid the Majors | Bonds Rallied Into a Hike

October's AI selloff ended with its worst day yet, and crypto stocks fell harder than the coin.

The Nasdaq was down about 3.4% late Friday, on pace for its worst day since June. The S&P 500 fell about 2.2%, and the Dow about 1.3%.

Intel's drop deepened to about 31% in regular trading. It beat its own forecast, then guided about $1.6 billion below Wall Street. Intel (INTC) traded near $64, headed for its worst day in more than 50 years. AMD (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), Dell (DELL) and Arm (ARM) each fell 11% to 12%. Nvidia (NVDA) lost about 5%.

Amazon (AMZN) pared a 7% early drop to about 2%. Its spending outran its cash flow by $42 billion over a year. Reddit (RDDT) fell about 30%, and Sandisk (SNDK) about 15%.

Coinbase (COIN) fell about 13% after touching a 52-week low. Circle (CRCL) lost about 10%, and Robinhood (HOOD) almost 10%. Strategy (MSTR) fell about 8%, and Bullish (BLSH) about 15%.

The Stocks Broke, the Coin Bent

Friday sold the businesses around each trade harder than the trades themselves. Bitcoin slipped about 2% while the biggest crypto stocks fell four to seven times as far. Intel's guide dragged down chip designers along with it. Investors priced these platforms as leveraged tech, not stand-ins for what they hold.

Binance says it can repay the theft token for token, and the test comes this weekend.

Binance put the breach at about $6.3 billion, over four times Bybit's 2025 record. About $3 billion is frozen. Binance says it reserved over $6.34 billion. Of that, $5 billion already sits in the exact tokens taken. It is buying the rest. Binance aims to reopen withdrawals by Sunday and publish full proof of reserves by Monday.

The unfrozen half went into coins no issuer can stop. Tether froze more than $1.5 billion of USDT and Circle more than $800 million of USDC. TRM Labs says the attacker still holds more than 420,000 ether and 18,270 bitcoin, about $2.4 billion. TRM and Chainalysis attribute the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor. Binance hasn't named anyone.

Aave froze lending on hundreds of markets after an attacker-linked wallet borrowed against USDT. Aave says its contracts weren't hit, and it reopened the markets Friday.

Coinbase's filing shows Armstrong and two insiders plan to sell up to 13.6 million shares. Armstrong's sales can start Nov. 16, only above undisclosed prices.

Tether's third-quarter attestation showed its reserve cushion nearly doubled to $7.95 billion. Spot bitcoin funds took in $17 million Thursday, a fourth day of inflows, while ether funds lost $105 million.

Bitcoin traded near $76,400, down more than 8% for October. It sits about 1% above Strategy's average cost. Ether traded near $2,230.

Repayment Moved the Risk Without Removing It

Binance turned a solvency scare into a verification test. Its promise rests on a private balance sheet outsiders can't yet check. Freezes worked only on coins with an issuer, and the rest fled to bitcoin and ether. Sunday's reopening and Monday's reserve proof will price the promise.

Refining paid the majors as crude rose into October's last session.

Brent rose about 2% to near $113 late Friday, on course for a fourth monthly gain. U.S. crude gained about 1.6% to near $104. UK maritime authorities said a small boat attached explosives to a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Exxon and Chevron beat as refining profits surged, and both stocks hit record highs. Exxon earned an adjusted $4.23 a share and set a $20 billion buyback for 2027. Its refining unit earned $9.0 billion, topping the $7.3 billion from oil and gas production. Chevron earned $5.28. Exxon (XOM) rose about 1.8%, and Chevron (CVX) about 1.6%.

BP's underlying profit jumped to $8.5 billion on refining. Its net debt fell by more than $8 billion. BP (BP) was little changed.

The Refinery Earned What the Well Didn't

The majors' windfall came from making fuel, not pumping crude. Refining capacity lost to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine widened their margin on every barrel. Shareholders get that cash through buybacks and debt cuts. It lasts only as long as refineries elsewhere stay offline.

Bonds rallied into a rate hike some Fed officials still say is needed.

The 10-year yield fell about 6 basis points to near 4.93%, a seven-week low. Gold dropped about 3.5% to near $3,890, a 52-week low. The VIX neared 21.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon." Kalshi's December hike contract traded near 73 cents early afternoon.

Employment costs rose 0.8% in the third quarter, as forecast. After inflation, private-sector wages and salaries fell 0.6% from a year earlier.

Democratic Senate odds rose about 4 points on Polymarket and Kalshi, to 71 to 72.5 cents. Polymarket's U.S.-Iran ceasefire contract through Oct. 31 traded near 93 cents. Qatari mediators were in Tehran.

Two Markets, One Hike

The front end still prices a December hike, and the long end bought safety anyway. Gold fell with stocks instead of against them. Falling real wages give the bond rally a reason the Fed's hawks don't share. One side is wrong by Dec. 9.

Private markets showed their stress in definitions and discounts.

Fitch said its U.S. private credit default rate hit a record 6.3% for the 12 months through September. Most came from deferred interest, payment-in-kind switches and stressed extensions. Bankruptcies and restructurings alone were 0.3%. Proskauer's separate index put third-quarter defaults at 2.41%.

SoftBank-backed OPay priced its U.S. IPO at $19, the bottom of its range. It sold 16 million shares, raising about $304 million at a value near $4 billion.

LCI's board rejected Monomoy's $101 cash bid as not superior to its Patrick deal. LCI (LCII) traded near $98, and Patrick (PATK) rose about 3%. Blackstone (BX) fell about 2%, and Blue Owl (OWL) about 1.4%.

The Default Rate Depends on Who's Counting

Private credit's stress shows up as delayed interest, not missed payments. Fitch counts those delays and finds a record, while Proskauer's index sits near 2.4%. Lenders can hold marks steady while income turns into IOUs. The tally that counts deferrals is the one rising.

October ended with the bill arriving.

Intel, Binance and private lenders showed costs the headlines had hidden. Binance aims to reopen two days before the midterms.