Iran Struck Again. Doha Talks Tuesday. Bitcoin Holds $60,000. Quarter Ends.

The pattern is becoming familiar. The U.S. hit Iranian targets Saturday. Iran responded with attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. By Sunday both sides agreed to resume negotiations in Doha. Markets treated the exchange the same way they have treated every flare up since the memorandum of understanding was signed. Investors stayed cautious but did not panic.

Asia also continued reacting to last week's technology selloff. South Korea's KOSPI triggered two circuit breakers last week, including Friday's 5.81% decline after Apple (AAPL) announced Mac and iPad price increases of 15% to 25% because of higher memory costs. Japan's Nikkei lost about 4% during the same session.

U.S. futures point higher. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.8% as quarter end rebalancing begins. Last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished five straight sessions with above average trading volume.

The calendar now takes over. JOLTS and consumer confidence arrive Tuesday. ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing follow Wednesday. June payrolls arrive Thursday before markets close for the July 4 holiday.

The Signal

The ceasefire cracked but held together again. Markets recovered. The next move depends less on headlines and more on this week's economic data.

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That move says a lot.

Only a few months ago, a single exchange between the U.S. and Iran could move oil more than 5% in one session. This weekend barely moved prices. Markets are treating the conflict as managed instead of expanding.

Saudi Aramco resumed loading tankers at Ras Tanura after a four month pause. More ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz with military escorts.

The recovery is not complete.

Quantum Strategy's David Roche warned that current supply partly reflects stored oil leaving floating inventories. Once those inventories disappear, supply could tighten again if negotiations fail.

Energy Signal

Oil barely reacted to another exchange of strikes. Markets believe the ceasefire will survive. The supply picture still depends on a lasting agreement.

June payrolls arrive Thursday after being moved forward because of the July 4 holiday. Economists expect about 120,000 jobs after May's 172,000 increase.

JOLTS openings are expected near 7.36 million, down from 7.61 million. ISM Manufacturing arrives Wednesday, with investors focused on the prices paid index after two straight readings above 80.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates steady while pointing toward one possible December hike. The dollar remains near a one year high.

A weaker payroll report would reopen the discussion around rate cuts. A stronger report would strengthen the case for another hike before year end.

Macro Signal

Payrolls remain the week's anchor. ISM prices Wednesday offers the first clue on whether inflation pressure is spreading beyond energy.

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The biggest listing of the year is now trading on fundamentals instead of excitement. Investors are waiting for updates on its investment grade debt offering and Starlink subscriber growth.

SK Hynix (000660.KS) plans to raise about $2.9 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing under SKHY on July 10. The offering follows Micron Technology (MU) delivering a record quarter that confirmed AI memory demand remains strong through at least 2027. SK Hynix controls roughly half of the global high bandwidth memory market.

Nike (NKE) reports Tuesday. Shares trade near their lowest level since 2014 after falling about 35% this year. The report is less about shoes and more about whether higher prices are beginning to weaken global consumer demand.

Capital Signal

SpaceX is searching for support. SK Hynix is bringing more AI exposure to U.S. markets. Nike tests the strength of the consumer.

More than $1.2 billion of put options had been concentrated around the $60,000 strike. That pressure has now cleared.

The bigger challenge remains ETF flows.

Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.61 billion of June outflows through June 25. The largest single day came after the PCE report, when investors withdrew about $696 million led by BlackRock (BLK) through IBIT and Fidelity National Financial (FNF) through FBTC.

Strategy (MSTR) remains under pressure. Michael Saylor hinted at another bitcoin purchase over the weekend, while Grayscale Investments research head Zach Pandl argued the company should instead sell roughly $3 billion of bitcoin to strengthen its balance sheet. Strategy still faces about $1.2 billion in annual preferred dividend obligations tied to STRC.

The Verdict

The options overhang is gone. ETF outflows remain the bigger problem. Strategy's next move may become bitcoin's biggest company specific catalyst this week.

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The second half of 2026 begins with the same two themes that defined the second quarter.

Iran and the United States continue moving between conflict and negotiation. Oil has returned close to prewar levels, helping inflation, but the supply picture still depends on a permanent agreement. Doha talks Tuesday could shape the next phase.

The AI trade also enters a new chapter. Apple showed AI costs are reaching consumers through higher prices. SpaceX proved demand for AI listings remains strong, but also showed that investors quickly become selective once the excitement fades.

Thursday's payroll report is now the week's defining event.

If the labor market slows, expectations for another Fed hike weaken.

If hiring stays strong, December becomes much harder to avoid.

The market will spend the first half of the week positioning for that answer.