Kospi Jumped 5%. Oil Slipped to $89. Bitcoin Cleared $66,000. Alphabet and Tesla Report Tonight.

Wednesday opens with the chip trade extending its rebound.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 5% overnight. The Kosdaq added 2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.34%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.66%.

U.S. futures were flat ahead of tonight’s earnings. Dow futures fell 16 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were little changed.

Tuesday did the heavy lifting.

The S&P 500 rose 0.89% to 7,509. The Nasdaq gained 1.29% to 25,837. The Dow added 385 points, or 0.74%, to 52,224.

All three indexes snapped three-day losing streaks.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.97% as chip stocks continued to recover. 3M (MMM) jumped more than 7% after raising guidance. General Motors (GM) gained nearly 5% after beating estimates.

The earnings season remains strong. About 88% of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten profit forecasts. Earnings growth is tracking 24.7% from last year, above the five-year average of 16.4%.

Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) report after the close. Intel (INTC) follows Thursday.

Options markets expect Tesla to move about 5.76%, its largest implied earnings swing in a year.

The Signal

Chips are recovering and earnings are beating. Tonight decides whether the AI trade’s biggest spenders can still support their valuations.

Oil pulled back as diplomacy briefly moved ahead of the missiles.

Brent settled Tuesday at $91.01, its highest close since June 10. It eased toward $89 early Wednesday after reports that Iran received a proposed 10-day ceasefire.

The war still widened.

The U.S. carried out a tenth straight night of strikes on Iran. Tehran attacked American positions in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

The Houthis also threatened a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. At least two Saudi tankers heading to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea.

A third risk appeared outside the Gulf after attacks hit Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal.

President Trump said Iran would pay “a multiple of the cost” after three U.S. soldiers were killed.

Energy Signal

The ceasefire proposal was strong enough to pull Brent below $90. It was not strong enough to erase a war now spreading beyond the Gulf.

The bond market is pricing the same conflict as oil.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.63% Tuesday, its highest level since mid-May.

The Fed has entered its blackout period ahead of the July 28 and 29 meeting. Markets still expect a hold next week, but the odds of a September hike rose to about 55% from 51% a day earlier.

Trade policy added pressure.

President Trump signed orders placing another 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods, including autos, dairy, wine, and cement. The tariffs take effect in 30 days.

The labor market is also cooling at the edges.

ADP data show private hiring slowed for a fourth straight week. Weekly hiring averaged 16,500 jobs through July 4, down from 24,250 three weeks earlier.

Macro Signal

Higher oil, new tariffs, and slower hiring are pulling the Fed in different directions. July still looks like a hold. September is less clear.

Alphabet and Tesla report tonight, but the headline profit numbers may not matter most.

For Alphabet, the focus is Google Cloud.

Its backlog stood at $462 billion last quarter after cloud revenue grew 63%. Investors want proof that backlog is turning into sales.

For Tesla, the key issue is robotaxi economics.

The company added Orlando and Tampa this week, bringing its service to six metro areas. Investors want to know how quickly that network can scale and whether it can make money.

Intel follows Thursday.

Reports suggest its 18A manufacturing yields are near 85%. That will offer another test of whether heavy AI spending is leading to better output.

SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $123, about 9% below its $135 IPO price and far below the $200-plus level reached after listing.

Capital Signal

Three large technology reports will answer one question: is roughly $180 billion in quarterly AI spending turning into revenue, or only backlog?

Bitcoin cleared $66,000 for the first time since June 17.

BTC traded near $66,850 after gaining about 4% Tuesday.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted five straight days of inflows, the longest streak since early May. Funds took in $727.3 million over that period.

Total spot ETF assets now exceed $79 billion, up from about $71 billion in late June. That follows more than $6.9 billion of outflows across May and June.

Strategy (MSTR) kept its Bitcoin holdings unchanged for a second week at 843,775 BTC.

Instead, the company raised $263.5 million through stock sales and lifted its cash reserve to $3.225 billion. It is now funding dividend needs through equity rather than selling Bitcoin.

Zcash (ZEC) traded near $578, up more than 20% in a week.

Its Ironwood upgrade arrives July 28 and will replace the Orchard pool linked to June’s counterfeiting flaw. Futures open interest has climbed toward $980 million.

The House passed the Clarity Act 294 to 134 on July 17, with support from 78 Democrats. The Senate version remains stuck over ethics rules, with about three weeks left before the August recess.

The Verdict

Bitcoin has real ETF support again. Zcash has a clear upgrade catalyst. Regulation is moving, but the Senate deadline remains tight.

Wednesday is the hinge.

Alphabet and Tesla report tonight. Intel follows Thursday.

Together, they will show whether the AI boom is producing revenue fast enough to support current spending.

Oil is easing on a ceasefire plan Iran has not accepted. The war has still spread from Hormuz to the Red Sea and now the Caspian.

The 10-year yield sits at 4.63%. New Canadian tariffs are coming. The Fed enters next week’s meeting with more mixed signals.

Bitcoin is moving on a different track.

Five ETF inflow days have pushed it above $66,000. Zcash has gained more than 20% ahead of its July 28 upgrade.

The AI trade needs clean numbers tonight.

Crypto may no longer need them.