Nvidia Sank, Its Suppliers Rose | Oil Fell Through the Fires | China's Factory Prices Ran Hot | Bitcoin Broke Strategy's Cost

The AI trade lost its leader's halo and kept its suppliers.

Nvidia (NVDA) traded about 5% below Friday's $186.64 close before the open. Its board said Sunday it opened an independent investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. It said it has "no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised," and still backs Huang.

The selling stayed with one name. TSMC rose about 4.7% in Taipei, and its U.S. shares (TSM) about 1% before the open. The Taiex gained about 4.9%. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.7%, Dow futures about 1.1% and Russell 2000 futures about 1.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures lagged, up about 0.5%.

Crypto venues priced it first. With Nasdaq shut, Nvidia perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, and later after-hours trading, put it near $180.30 on Sunday, about 3.4% below Friday's close. A new Polymarket contract on Huang's exit being announced by year-end traded near 14 cents early Monday.

Nvidia reports Nov. 17. House committee chairs have asked Huang for a closed-door briefing the next day.

The Signal

Investors sold the person and bought the supply chain. That is a key-person discount, not a demand verdict. It likely stays until the board says what it found.

Oil fell through a weekend that gave it reasons to rise.

Brent slid about 3.5% to near $95, and WTI about 3% to near $88. Maritime officials confirmed two tanker attacks near Hormuz in their latest period, including a fire off Khasab. They count 177 incidents since March.

Futures appeared to listen to Washington instead. President Trump told CNN renewed strikes on Iran would be "highly unlikely" to be needed if Tehran signs "a very strong agreement." Iraq said it reached understandings with the U.S. to export crude through a shipping lane near Oman. Washington has not described the arrangement.

Energy Signal

Futures appear to be pricing the odds of another U.S. strike, not the count of fires at sea. The attacks have not stopped. If talks stall, futures have further to travel.

China's factory prices ran hot, and its consumer prices barely moved.

Factory-gate prices rose 5.7% from a year earlier in October, the fastest since mid-2022 and above forecasts near 5.3%. Consumer prices rose just 0.7%, and core prices 0.8%. Energy-related industries accounted for more than 80% of the monthly producer-price gain.

Inside the producer index, prices for consumer goods fell 0.1%. Factories making goods for households appear to be absorbing the oil shock rather than passing it on.

Both governments also papered the trade truce. Washington extended 178 tariff exclusions to Jan. 9. Beijing kept its extra 24% tariff suspended for two more months and extended its pause on rare-earth export controls to Jan. 10.

Kalshi's December hike contract held near 77 cents into Tuesday's U.S. inflation report. The 10-year yield sat near 4.85%. The dollar slipped about 0.6%, and gold rose about 1% to near $4,115.

Macro Signal

China's inflation is so far concentrated upstream, not in what households buy. Tuesday's trade data show whether it reaches export prices. America's hike bet rests on its own numbers, and Tuesday's report decides whether 77 cents was too much.

Buyers paid up for what sits under AI, and a seller let go of what digs.

Mitsui Chemicals and the Development Bank of Japan agreed to buy chip-materials maker JSR for ¥1.84 trillion, about $11.6 billion, from state-backed fund JIC. JSR is one of the world's largest makers of photoresist, the light-sensitive material used to print chip circuits. Mitsui is funding most of it with a ¥1.64 trillion bridge loan and expects its net debt to top four times EBITDA for a while.

Cyera, an AI data-security company, is reportedly close to an $800 million round at about $20 billion. That would sit about 67% above its $12 billion June valuation, after a week in which the Nasdaq fell 3.4%.

CNH (CNH) went the other way. It agreed to sell 70% of its construction-equipment business to Kobelco at a $1 billion enterprise value, for about $700 million in cash.

KKR (KKR) reports before the open.

Capital Signal

Buyers are borrowing heavily for chip inputs and paying rising prices for AI security. Cyclical machinery is going to strategic buyers for cash. Scarcity gets the premium, and cycles get the exit.

Bitcoin broke the line the whole market was watching.

Bitcoin fell about $2,000 within an hour on Sunday afternoon to near $73,650, its lowest since August. More than $1 billion of leveraged bets were wiped out over 24 hours, mostly bullish ones, according to CoinGlass data. The drop began shortly after Nvidia's board statement, with U.S. stock markets closed.

Bitcoin traded near $74,500 early Monday, about 1.2% below Strategy's average cost of $75,451. That leaves Strategy's (MSTR) 849,327 coins about $800 million under cost on paper. The loss is unrealized, and the coins are not pledged against loans. Its shares were about 3.5% lower before the open.

The weekly candle closed near $74,720, a fifth straight losing week. Ether fell about 5% from Sunday afternoon to near $2,120. Coinbase (COIN) was about 2% lower.

Washington added a date. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, expected to chair the Senate's investigations subcommittee in January, gave Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial and the issuer of the TRUMP memecoin until Jan. 4 to produce records. That is a day after the new Congress sits. No subpoena has been issued.

The Verdict

Sunday was leverage meeting a weekend shock, not a new view on bitcoin. But Strategy's cost line now sits above the price, not below it. Its weekly filing shows whether it keeps buying underwater.

Nvidia fell, and its suppliers rose.

Oil fell, and the fires at sea did not stop.

China's factories charged more, and its consumer prices barely moved.

Bitcoin fell below what its biggest corporate holder paid.

Constellation and KKR report before the open, and Strategy usually files its weekly buying on Monday.

Inflation lands Tuesday, and MSCI rules on Strategy Wednesday.

Weekend markets set the prices. Monday decides whether they stick.