Oil Hit the Dow | SpaceX Rattled the Carriers | Firms Raised Prices | A Bank Stablecoin Went Retail

Chips found a floor, but oil and earnings pulled the Dow lower.

The Dow fell about 1.2% Friday. The S&P 500 was down about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.2%. The chip index edged up after Thursday's 6.7% drop. Micron (MU) rose about 2.5%, and AMD (AMD) about 1.7%.

American Express beat and raised, then fell almost 4%. Adjusted earnings of $4.68 a share topped estimates of about $4.50. It will cut about 5% of staff, roughly 3,500 jobs. The adjusted forecast tops out where the old range did. American Express (AXP) traded near $313.

Bloom Energy erased its overnight recovery. Sales rose 138%, and it raised its forecast a third time. Bloom (BE) fell about 11%. Comfort Systems (FIX) lost more than 9% despite a record $17.8 billion backlog. Western Digital (WDC) slipped about 3%.

Robert Half's staffing revenue grew for the first time since 2022, and Robert Half (RHI) jumped about 22%.

A SpaceX tower report hit the carriers. Bloomberg reported SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites and is in talks with Crown Castle. No deal has been announced. Crown Castle (CCI) rose about 9%, and American Tower (AMT) 4%. AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) each fell almost 8%. Verizon (VZ) lost about 1.3%.

Cash Beats Growth

Friday graded companies on what they keep, not what they sell. Bloom and Comfort Systems grew fast and sold off as talk turned to spending and visibility. Amex cut jobs and raised its range, yet the top end held still. Robert Half returned to modest growth and jumped more than 20%. Investors are paying for cash they can count today.

Oil climbed for a third week as attacks spread across the Gulf.

Brent rose about 3.3% to near $117 Friday, a multi-month high. U.S. crude gained about 4% to near $103. Brent ended September near $98.

Brent crossed $114 before dawn, and a Libyan export pipeline was shut. The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi targets, including an Aramco site. The UAE confirmed a tanker oil spill on its coast.

SLB's fourth-quarter forecast assumes no Middle East rebound. It beat on $9.45 billion of revenue and guided to about $10 billion. SLB (SLB) rose about 7%. Exxon (XOM) gained about 2.8%, and Chevron (CVX) 3%. American Airlines (AAL) fell about 4%.

The Barrel Ran Ahead of the Budget

Oil's premium is rising faster than the plans of the companies closest to it. Brent added about $4, and the majors rose with it. SLB still guided as if Middle East revenue stays flat. Shareholders are paying for today's price with no regional recovery built in.

Firms raised prices at the fastest pace since 2022, and households expect more inflation.

S&P Global's flash composite PMI was 57.6, a two-month low. Selling prices rose the most since August 2022. Michigan's final sentiment reading was 48.0, near a record low. Long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.5%, above their 2024 range.

The 10-year yield rose about 4 basis points to near 4.99%, after a 17-basis-point drop Thursday. Five-year inflation-protected notes drew their weakest demand since April 2025 that day. Gold slipped about 1.2% to near $4,010.

France slipped into contraction before Moody's review. Its flash composite fell to 48.4 from 51.1. Moody's decision on its Aa3 rating comes after the U.S. close.

Kalshi's October hike contract traded near 8 cents late morning. Polymarket priced a December hike near 72.5%. The Pentagon barred staff from betting on military operations with inside information. The memo names Polymarket and Kalshi.

The Prices Didn't Get the Memo

Thursday's bond rally treated the AI selloff as the bigger risk. Friday's surveys showed firms raising prices fastest since 2022 and households expecting more. The 10-year gave back part of its drop, and December hike bets stayed high. Lower yields now have to survive the inflation data, not just the AI tape.

Private AI prices came down, and lenders went looking for borrowers.

OpenAI is close to raising up to $30 billion at $1.25 trillion, reports say. Earlier talks put it at $1.4 trillion. That is still about 47% above March's $852 billion value. Coatue and Emirati investors reportedly lead.

Private credit has record money and fewer deals. Direct-lending funds raised a record $129.15 billion in nine months, Preqin data show. Deal volume had its worst quarter in over three years, Bloomberg reported. Some big lenders chase firms earning under $20 million a year.

First Citizens beat forecasts by about 20%. Its 138 BMO branches brought in $4.9 billion of deposits. First Citizens (FCNCA) rose about 8%.

Two Markets, One Direction

Private prices and public ones moved the same way this week. OpenAI's price talk came down about 11% in the same week the Nasdaq had its worst day since June. Direct lenders raised record sums and found fewer deals to fund. Money is plentiful, and the leverage sits with whoever needs it least.

Bitcoin sat still while banks and central banks built stablecoin rails.

Bitcoin traded near $81,200, little changed. U.S. spot bitcoin funds swung from $528 million of inflows to $636 million of outflows Thursday. Strategy (MSTR) was about flat. Coinbase (COIN) fell about 3%. Galaxy (GLXY) and CleanSpark (CLSK) touched 52-week lows. Circle (CRCL) slipped about 1%, and Robinhood (HOOD) about 1.6%.

HSBC launched RedCoin, a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin licensed by the territory's monetary authority. It is live on PayMe, an app with over 3.3 million users. HSBC says each token is designed to redeem 1:1 for Hong Kong dollars. HSBC (HSBC) slipped about 1.3%.

Malaysia's and Thailand's central banks joined Singapore's BLOOM stablecoin payments initiative. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA) and Ripple joined too.

Franklin Templeton registered two Nasdaq ETFs pairing U.S. stocks with a bitcoin sleeve of about 5%. Initia halted its layer-1 and rollups after a security incident. Analysts estimate $2.6 million to $2.7 million was cashed out. Initia has not confirmed a loss.

The Rails Moved, the Price Didn't

Crypto's progress ran through institutions while the coin stood still. Bitcoin barely moved as fund flows flipped and Brent jumped. A global bank, two more central banks and Franklin widened the regulated routes in. Adoption is advancing in the plumbing, not the price.

Friday paid for cash, oil and caution.

Investors sold costly growth and bought the barrel. Firms raised prices, private AI marks eased, and bitcoin held still ahead of the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.