WTI jumped 2.8% to $85.76 after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes near Hormuz. September hike odds rose above 65% after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Strategy bought 4,603 bitcoin for $369.7 million after a 10-week pause, while Bitcoin held near $79,000. Payrolls now decide whether September gets a hike.
August ended with oil, rates and Iran back in control.
The Dow fell 0.70%, the S&P 500 lost 0.33% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.12%.
The trigger was the first major U.S.-Iran exchange in a month. U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after CENTCOM said they were being prepared with sea mines for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran then claimed attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan.
Oil moved fast. Brent rose 2.7% to $90.49 and WTI gained 2.8% to $85.76.
Markets were already dealing with a second shock. September hike odds moved above 65% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Still, August finished higher. The S&P gained 2.6%, the Nasdaq rose 3.9%, and the Dow posted a fifth straight monthly gain.
The Signal
August ended risk-on. September starts with oil, inflation and the Fed moving in the same direction.
The Big AI Story Nobody Knows
|
There's a website called RentAHuman.ai. Its tagline: "Robots need your body."
721,000 people across 100 countries have signed up.
And according to Alexander Green - the man who bought Apple under $1, Netflix at $1.62, Amazon under $2* - this is the clearest signal yet that Phase 2 of the AI supercycle has arrived. (Split adjusted prices)
He's identified three companies set to dominate this next phase.
Oil is no longer trading only the loss of supply. It is trading the risk of escalation.
The U.S. strike on Larak Island came after Iranian forces were accused of preparing sea mines for Hormuz. Iran said soldiers were killed and wounded, while Trump threatened Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export terminal.
That pushed Brent above $90 again.
The pressure reaches beyond crude. Goldman Sachs says strikes on refineries across the Middle East and Russia are also tightening global refining capacity.
Washington is trying to build a longer-term hedge through Venezuela. Trump says the U.S. secured majority control over 65 billion barrels of reserves. But Venezuela still produces only about 1.2 million barrels a day, far below its old peak of 3.5 million.
Rystad estimates restoring peak output could require about $180 billion through 2040.
Energy Signal
Venezuela is a future supply option. Hormuz is today’s risk. Oil is pricing the difference.
Warsh made September a live meeting. The market may have gone further than the Fed chair did.
Rate-hike odds for September climbed to about 66%, nearly double where they stood before Jackson Hole. Warsh said inflation has not improved enough and warned the Fed still has work to do if prices do not move toward 2% fast enough.
Bank of America (BAC) sees that as a clear tightening signal. Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) are less convinced, arguing softer hiring could still keep the Fed on hold.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also pushed back. He said some inflation pressure reflects energy supply shocks and argued the Fed should not react unless those shocks spread more broadly.
The bond market is already feeling the tension. The 10-year yield ended Friday near 4.73%.
Higher oil is now hitting households too. The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.87%, its highest since June 2025. For a $450,000 home with 20% down, that adds about $207 a month versus late February.
Macro Signal
Warsh raised the bar for a hold. Payrolls now decide whether the data clears it.
15X Bigger Than SpaceX: Elon's New Launch
While the rest of the market goes crazy for "the mother of all IPOs", a new Elon Musk innovation is quietly being rolled out nationwide. It's been 27 years in the making, and it could have a radical impact on how millions of people manage their money… and even collect Social Security. Here's everything you need to know.
This ad is sent on behalf of InvestorPlace Media at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, please click here.
The AI trade enters September with another test.
Broadcom (AVGO) reports Wednesday. Options markets are pricing roughly an 8% move after earnings, a sign investors still remember the stock’s 13% one-day drop after last quarter.
The larger issue is not current demand. It is whether Broadcom raises its long-term AI outlook.
Nvidia (NVDA) is also pushing deeper into the ecosystem. It will invest $3.5 billion in MediaTek through a convertible bond deal. MediaTek customers will gain access to Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion system for custom AI chips.
That follows Nvidia’s guarantee of up to $105 billion for OpenAI’s Ohio data-center lease.
The pattern is changing. Nvidia is no longer only selling chips. It is using its balance sheet and architecture to shape the network around them.
Capital Signal
Broadcom tests AI demand Wednesday. Nvidia is already trying to make sure more of that demand stays inside its ecosystem.
Strategy is buying again.
Strategy purchased 4,603 bitcoin for $369.7 million after a 10-week pause, paying an average of $80,318 per coin. The company now holds 845,050 BTC bought for about $63.73 billion at an average cost of $75,412.
Bitcoin itself traded near $79,000 and still needs a clean break above $80,000 to regain momentum. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $201.8 million of outflows Friday, while ether ETFs took in $102.2 million.
Corporate demand is also spreading beyond bitcoin. BitMine bought 53,501 ETH worth about $131 million, lifting its holdings to roughly 5.9 million ETH, or 4.9% of total supply.
The speculative layer is moving too. Robinhood Chain generated about $2.66 million in daily app revenue, beating Ethereum’s $1.27 million, as memecoin trading drove most activity.
It processed 5.52 million transactions and saw 22,600 new tokens launched in one day.
The Verdict
Strategy is back buying bitcoin. BitMine is building an ether treasury. Robinhood Chain is growing through speculation. Institutional demand and retail risk are rising together.
"A Dangerous Financial Plan Unfolding in D.C. Could Cost You 40% of Your Wealth"
Former Goldman Sachs executive who traded through Black Monday warns this plan is all written down in black and white, spearheaded by a financial insider who infiltrated the Federal Reserve... It's gone "viral" in the hedge fund circles… and yet practically nobody on Main Street understands this financial shock playing out across America. He lays out all the evidence... plus a detailed roadmap for exactly what to do. (And it doesn't require shorting... options... or perfectly "timing the market.")
You must see this critical market briefing today.
This ad is sent on behalf of Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201. If you would like to optout from receiving offers from Stansberry Research please click here.
Monday tied the month together.
Oil rose because Hormuz risk returned. Yields stayed high because Warsh made September live. Mortgage rates moved with them. Stocks fell even as August still closed with strong gains.
The same split runs through AI and crypto.
Nvidia is financing a wider chip ecosystem while Broadcom prepares for another demand test. Strategy is buying bitcoin again while price still struggles to hold $80,000.
None of those trades now sit alone.
Oil feeds inflation. Inflation feeds the Fed. The Fed sets the discount rate for chips, housing and crypto.
That makes Friday’s payrolls report the next fulcrum.
If hiring is soft, Warsh has room to wait.
If it is strong, September gets much harder to ignore.
